Market capitalization share of Bitcoin and Ethereum

Bitcoin dominance: Bitcoin's share of the total market value is often used to measure the market's dependence on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin's market dominance remains at a high level, it generally means that the overall market sentiment is positive and the bull market may continue.

Ethereum dominance: Ethereum also performed strongly during the bull market. If Ethereum's share increases, it means that the demand for application layers such as smart contracts and DeFi is growing.

Currently, BTC's market capitalization accounts for 57.4%, and Ethereum's is 12.1%. In the big bull market of 2021, BTC's share fell to 40% at the lowest, while ETH's share rose to 18.5%. Looking back at the 2021 bull market, BTC's share continued to rise during 2020, and then fell at the top of the bull market, while ETH's situation was the opposite. Similarly, you can also check the trend in 2017.

Today, from the perspective of BTC's share trend, it is constantly increasing, which means that energy is accumulating, and it is impossible to have entered a bear market at the moment.

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11.23 Midday Analysis

The Bitcoin price rebounded after hitting a low this morning, stabilizing after a minimum drop to 93655, then surged to a high of 96488 before slightly retreating. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears has become the main rhythm. Ethereum experienced a stepwise decline in the early morning, hitting a low of 3219, followed by a sideways movement, and then surged to 3362 before coming under pressure in the afternoon.

The current market is leaning towards weakness, with the four-hour chart showing a weak pullback trend. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands presents strong resistance, having been tested multiple times without breaking. Support is at 93000, with two tests of the low this morning both being pulled back up, but the rebound lacks strength. The daily chart shows a doji with long upper and lower shadows, indicating balanced energy between bulls and bears. In the afternoon, it is advisable to buy on dips and seize entry opportunities.

Trading Suggestions:
Buy Bitcoin at 94000 - 94500, target 96500.
Buy Ethereum around 3250, target 3350.

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During the early trading period, the market directly conducted a secondary test of the bottom. However, given the current situation, the support strength at the bottom appears to be weak. The levels of 94000 and 3200 reached during the early session may still be tested again within the day.

Considering the current rebound trend and relatively favorable position, it is suggested to estimate a downward movement towards the early session bottom testing range near 95000 - 94500 and 3280 - 3250, based on the Fibonacci 0.5 level of the smaller wave segments, which is 96500 and the resistance zone of 3360 - 3380.

For this tentative short-term bearish operation, the defensive point should not be set too large to prevent the market from breaking through and accelerating upwards, which could lead to a loss of control. It is recommended to focus on the defensive points at 96500 and 3420.

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Christmas is approaching, and two pieces of news have emerged.

The bad news is: Before Christmas, it is difficult for the market to show a rebound upward trend. Looking back at several previous bull markets, the market trend during Christmas has often been downward.

The good news is: In bull market years, there is a high probability of a strong rebound after Christmas, which is known as the 'Christmas rally.' However, in reality, this may just be a manifestation of the altcoin market in a bull market.

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December 23 Bitcoin Trend and Market Analysis: Long First, Short Later Strategy.

From the daily perspective, the current coin price is at the bottom area, in the process of a short-term rebound. The short-term resistance levels are at 96700 and 97400. In terms of trading strategy for the day, a high short strategy should be the primary focus, with low long as a supplementary measure.

With the current quote at 95700, a small long position can be taken, expecting to take profits near 96600. Then, watch for the testing situation at the 96700 resistance level; if this resistance level is broken, consider entering a short position at the second layout point, targeting 94500 and 93200.

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Ethereum Trend Analysis on December 23:

After a rapid rebound at the 3100 price level last Friday, the market showed a fluctuating downward trend over the weekend, closing the weekly candle with a engulfing bearish candle, forming a top formation structure, indicating extremely strong bearish forces.

The daily K-line body is showing a downward trend along the MA5 moving average, and attention should be paid to the gains and losses of the 60-day moving average. It is significant whether today’s closing can hold above this moving average.

The overall trading strategy for this week is to set up medium to long-term short positions when encountering rebounds below the 20-day moving average. If the price remains above 3100 without making a new low, short-term long positions can be attempted, but if it breaks below the 3100 level, stop losses should be executed immediately.

Attempting to catch a rebound against the trend carries high risks, but defending the 60-day moving average is worth a try. It is essential to remember one principle: the long position must be smaller than the short position.

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The MACD indicator for Bitcoin shows that both the current DIF and DEA are negative, and the MACD histogram is also in the negative territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 35.9, close to the oversold area, but has not yet entered extreme oversold conditions, which may indicate a demand for a technical rebound.

The MACD indicator for Ethereum shows that both the current DIF and DEA are negative, but the gap is narrowing. The MACD histogram has turned from green, indicating a weakening of downward momentum, and a rebound may occur. The RSI is at 36.1, close to the oversold range, indicating the possibility of a technical rebound.

Bitcoin price is at 94,000, with a stop at 93,500 and a target of 97,000.

Ethereum price is at 3,200, with a stop at 3,150 and a target of 3,350.

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ETH Market Trend Analysis (4h)

Revisiting the ETH chart trends, there are currently no significant signs of a price bottom. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the market conditions, there is also no strong support level at present. If prices continue to decline, the support levels to watch will be around 3089 near the ema200 moving average and the area around 3016, which is near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

According to the information presented by the market data, these two points will become key support positions for Ethereum, along with the important psychological level of 3000. Therefore, if you intend to enter the market, it is advisable to make decisions based on market reactions near the support levels.

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The current location is unclear. If the physical K-line can touch 94K, it will be easier to judge. It is currently difficult to determine whether this is the early start of the second or even third wave of market conditions, or the end of the first wave of market conditions.

The key is that the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins (alts) differ significantly. Just focusing on the current trend of altcoins, we can determine that they have shown a short-term trend, while the long-term bull trend still exists. From an index perspective, the long-term trend of 193 – 450 – 330 remains intact.

If we only look at the trend of Bitcoin, its short-term is just a correction, and the long-term trend is currently minimally affected.

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Five tricks to control the market

First, avoid chasing highs and choose low-priced varieties. As long as the selected varieties are not too bad and there is no risk of being delisted by major exchanges, the market will come sooner or later.

Second, spot trading should be medium- and long-term, not short-term. Short-term trading requires high technology, mentality, time and energy. The advantage of retail investors is time. Look at the weekly and daily lines and intervene at low points and wait.

Third, the number of varieties should be small. Do not exceed three varieties within the market value of 500 million. The probability of doubling when buying two varieties at the same time is higher than ten.

Fourth, lower expectations. Don't always expect several times or dozens of times a year, don't sell when it rises, and ride the roller coaster repeatedly. Those who are not good at selling can sell near the historical high point when the main rising wave meets.

Fifth, reduce the frequency of transactions. Retail investors should not trade frequently every day and week, as there is a high probability of losses. Although it is hard to be short, you must overcome it. Trade once a month and grasp it accurately.

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On Friday afternoon, cryptocurrencies plummeted, primarily for two reasons. First, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans for next year are not promising, leading to a setback in U.S. stocks, which also affected Bitcoin. Second, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he would not purchase Bitcoin and has no intention of changing the law. This declaration caused cryptocurrencies to drop sharply, with Bitcoin falling below the $100,000 mark, resulting in 230,000 liquidations across the network, amounting to $672 million.

During trading, many details should not be overlooked, as slight advantageous opportunities may increase profits and mitigate risks. This includes grasping the timing of partial and full positions. Additionally, one should develop the habit of daily monitoring U.S. financial news and understanding global economic trends, which greatly aids in trend judgment.

When I conduct trend analysis, I base my predictions on current market trends combined with subsequent financial news, primarily from the U.S., to anticipate possible outcomes and clarify the major direction. Moreover, it is not difficult to cleverly respond to manipulative actions by market makers that go against human nature.

From a technical structure perspective, the daily trend is extremely weak, with bears continuously increasing selling pressure, breaking below the $98,000 threshold. This bearish trend reflects a poor outlook. The 4-hour chart shows a clear downward oscillation trend; although there was a rebound after the drop, it could not be sustained, and the Bollinger Bands indicators are opening downwards, with room still available below. Currently, there are no signs of a short-term end, and based on the trend, it is inclined to continue downward, potentially advancing towards the $95,000 or even $93,000 vicinity, so a high short strategy remains advisable.

Morning BTC short-term operation: short in the $97,000 - $97,500 range, targeting the $95,500 - $95,000 area.

The state is good, the winning streak remains unbroken. If it is difficult to determine bullish or bearish, follow the thought process, work together, and create more achievements!

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Last night, the price of the currency fluctuated violently, rising to 102756 and then falling sharply, bottoming out at 95681, and now fluctuating around 97000.

The daily line has been negative and broke the lower track, but the sustainability of the decline remains to be seen. In terms of technical indicators, KDJ is about to form a golden cross in the oversold zone, RSI is oversold and turning upward, and the rebound momentum is gradually gathering. Pay attention to the stabilization of this position during the day. If it stabilizes, the short-term retracement will continue, otherwise there may be a retaliatory rebound.

In the four-hour structure, the price of the currency is mostly suppressed by the middle track, and the decline breaks through the strong consolidation correction. The middle track of the Bollinger band turns down, the opening of the lower track tends to expand, and the three lines of KDJ converge, the green column of MACD shortens, and the short-selling power is weak. At the end of the week, pay close attention to the conversion of long and short positions, and recover or continue to fall after stepping back. If it continues to fall, the strong upward trend will be broken, and the short-term will fall back; if it stabilizes and rebounds, the bulls will regain the upward trend and attack again.

Dabing intraday strategy: 97000 long, stop loss 96200, target 98500; Yitai intraday strategy: 3385 long, stop loss 3345, target 3435.

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Analysis of key points of Bitcoin and Ethereum on Friday, December 20
Bitcoin: Its hourly level indicators are below the healthy level, while the daily level has returned to the healthy range. It is expected that there will be a consolidation rebound pattern during the day. If it can effectively stand at the support level, you can consider following up. The lower support level of the day is in the 94500-95500 area, and the upper resistance level is in the 98000-99000 range.

Ethereum: The hourly level indicators have entered the overbought range, and the daily level is below the healthy level. It is also expected that there will be a consolidation rebound trend during the day. If the support level is successfully established, you can follow up in time. The lower support level of the day is in the range of 3280-3340, and the upper resistance level is in the range of 3500-3600.

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During the daytime period yesterday, Bitcoin's trend was in line with expectations, continuing to rise based on the established approach, gradually approaching the target price of 103,000. However, at night, the price suddenly plummeted, and when it fell below 100,000, it was clear that the market situation had reversed. Nevertheless, I always adhere to the principle of being bearish but not blindly chasing shorts. Surprisingly, the market has been suppressing bullish forces all the way, and the price has dropped to 95,500, which is the same corrective magnitude as the previous round.

Currently, there is a small wave of rebound in the market. From the 1-hour perspective, the upper resistance level is at 98,500, and the lower support level is at 96,300.

The overall operational strategy remains to buy on dips, and one can plan long positions near 96,500, with a target price of 98,500 and a stop-loss set at 95,800.

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11.20 Morning Strategy Insights

Yesterday's market was almost a replica of the previous day's trend, with bullish forces showing signs of fatigue and weakness. Could it be that Powell's attitude has had such a significant impact? It has influenced the entire market's sentiment and direction, leading to a deep correction mode.

From the 4-hour structure chart, the K-line has continuously shown large bearish candles, and the rebound space has been greatly compressed. The bullish performance is particularly weak while bearish momentum continues to be released, pushing prices downward. The overall pattern has clearly presented reversal signals. This decline is likely to test the 92000 - 90000 area.

In terms of trading, if Bitcoin rebounds to around 97500, a short position could be considered, with a target price aimed at around 94000.

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Recently, BlackRock and Grayscale have continued to increase BTC spot holdings, demonstrating their confidence in the crypto market.

However, last night the price of BTC plummeted, primarily due to a statement from the Federal Reserve that triggered panic selling in the market, leading many investors to rush to exit, resulting in numerous liquidations and leveraged positions being wiped out. Yet, from a long-term perspective, this drop may only be a correction in a bull market, and the bull market is not over.

If the fundamental state and demand of the crypto market do not fundamentally change, the long-term value remains solid. Therefore, it may be wise for investors to hold onto spot assets and be patient, waiting for the next wave of growth.

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Today’s “feeding record” focuses on grass.

Watching the trend of grass, it's like there are two little people fighting in your mind. At present, grass is in the box in the big cycle and its direction is uncertain. Although grass rebounded after stepping back on the 2.48 support level this morning, its kinetic energy has significantly weakened.

The strong support level below grass is in the range of 1.95 to 2.07, and the strong pressure level is around 3.836.

Since grass is currently in a downward cycle, we mostly refer to the above-mentioned strong support levels for operations. Those who are aggressive can intervene in the support range of 2.325 to 2.385; those who are seeking safety can refer to the strong pressure levels mentioned above, and those who are more aggressive can choose to intervene in the range of 2.776 to 2.850.

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A Retrospective and Prospective Look at the Characteristics of the Past Altcoin Season

1. The Changing Relationship Between BTC and ETH
In the past altcoin season, when BTC rose, ETH often followed, bringing altcoins up along with it, with strong coins like ETH sometimes surging over 10 times. This relationship is no longer the case; when BTC rises, ETH often does not respond, creating a new dynamic.

2. Sector Rotation Trends
During the bull market of 2021, various sectors such as public chains, DAOs, and NFTs rose successively. In 2023, L2 and AI sectors also shone. Now, the sector effects have weakened, with only a few concept coins occasionally making waves, making it difficult to replicate the overall rotation of the past.

3. Patterns of Altcoin Rally
Old altcoins often exhibit three patterns in their rallies: small incremental rises, where followers fear a downturn after gains; sharp rises and falls, where rapid gains lead to steep losses, making high leverage risky; and zigzag patterns, where prices oscillate, testing the patience of holders.

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The idea of ​​long orders for Bitcoin and Ethereum given in the morning has been confirmed. The overall idea of ​​the white market is to wait for the decline to the support level to find a rebound opportunity for long orders.

From the current trend, Bitcoin and Ethereum have encountered suppression from above after rebounding, and are now in a volatile stage.

Bitcoin is supported by the lower track of the four-hour Bollinger Band, and is under short-term pressure and stagnation at the four-hour MA60 moving average of 101550; Ethereum is supported by the lower track of the four-hour and the MA180 moving average near 3660, and is suppressed at the daily MA30 moving average of 3680.

Friends who have made profits from long orders in the morning can leave the market first, and the subsequent long and short battles need to pay attention to the breakthrough and support above and below. The short energy column of the four-hour MACD has shrunk, and the three lines of KDJ have bonded and there are signs of upward movement. It is likely that the trend will still be volatile in the afternoon. After leaving the long orders, you can continue to pay attention to the support level and try to operate.

For Bitcoin support, pay attention to the three positions of 100800, 99800, and 98500, and set a 500-point defense; for Ethereum support below, pay attention to the three positions of 3660, 3600, and 3540, and set a 40-point defense.

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In the current situation, the extent of the price correction may be nearing its end, and the key point lies in the duration of the consolidation at this price level.

Naturally, the most extreme scenario would be for the price to break through the established range and drop directly to the blue trend line, although the likelihood of this occurring is relatively low.

When discussing the price decline of altcoins, I have always believed that it remains within a reasonable range, as the price volatility of altcoins is inherently significant. After this large-scale market adjustment, many altcoins are still in the process of market correction, and market sentiment will also have an impact on their price trends.

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