A powerful TRON whale withdrew 60K TRON Bitcoin (BTCT) from JustLend, unleashing a potential liquidity of $3.6B. The TRON-based wrapped tokens were burned, supposedly releasing the collateral on the Bitcoin main net. 

A new Bitcoin (BTC) whale has just appeared, after leaving JustLend on TRON. The wrapped BTC on JustLend was burned, redeeming the BTC from the smart contract. Multiple tranches of TRC-20 BTC were sent to a black hole address.

The deposit of 60,000 BTC was made in 2022, with a value of $624M. Upon release, the BTC is now worth $3.77B. The move also sets the question about the potential use of 60K newly unlocked coins. Based on TRON chain data, the equivalent amount was burned – but there are not sufficient data to show the movement of the collateral on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Immediately after the transfers, the most probable suspect for the transactions was Justin Sun, co-founder of TRON. Sun has been an influential whale in multiple protocols and has affected the TRON ecosystem by depositing liquidity. The unlocking and burn arrived with no warning, in a series of 1,000 BTC tranches. Sun has not confirmed his involvement, though he has shown readiness to adopt WBTC as a native TRON asset. 

JustLend has been shedding BTC since the peak in March, and currently holds 78.16K BTC. JustLend claims to carry $3.54B in value locked based on lending. BTC can be used as collateral on the protocol, while earning passive income. 

Despite the significant value locked, JustLend reports very few transactions and a few hundred daily users, based on DappRadar data. 

TRC-20 Bitcoin version raises doubts about reserves

Currently, BTC as a TRC-20 token is mostly used in the DeFi space of the TRON network. The token supply is just 25,000 BTCT, based on self-reported data. TRONScan shows another number, 97,745 BTCT, of which 98% are held in the top 3 addresses. The top address, containing 74% of the supply, is none other than JustLend. Despite the significant supply, BTCT is still only used in SunSwap, with limited representation outside the TRON ecosystem. 

BTCT also lacks clear audits, and despite seeing the burn transactions, there is no additional data on where the actual BTC appeared. BTC data on whale wallets show no single address suddenly receiving the balance. 

BTCT information claims the TRC-20 token also has proof of reserves, but they are not published anywhere. Skepticism about BTCT as a TRC-20 token may also affect the upcoming issues of WBTC on the TRON network. Until the proof of reserves, the recent burns from JustLend may simply be TRC-20 operations, not affecting actual BTC on the main blockchain. The main concern is that WBTC on the TRON network could be created in a similar manner, without sufficient proof of reserves.

TRON prepares to carry WBTC

The timing of the unlocked coins raises the question of whether the new assets would flow into Wrapped BTC. From October 8 onward, Wrapped BTC, or WBTC, was scheduled to appear on the TRON network, in a bid to become a multi-chain asset.

WBTC currently has 152,958.34 actual BTC in custody, wrapped on the Ethereum network. If the 60K BTC unlocked are real, they could jump-start liquidity on the TRON network. 

WBTC, first proposed in 2018, is one of the oldest, most liquid assets, distributed among multiple DeFi protocols, liquidity pools and lending apps. WBTC is seen as reliable and audited, and has not faced exploits or hacks. Currently, WBTC faces competition from cbBTC by Coinbase, a wrapped asset on Ethereum and the Base chain. 

After October 8, BitGo will extend the reach of WBTC, by allowing the creation of a TRON-based version. As with Ethereum-based WBTC, the expectation is that the new tokens will have a transparent proof of reserves.

WBTC is native to Ethereum, as well as Avalanche and BNB Chain. TRON has been a controversial chain due to suspicions of centralized control. However, BitGlobal has announced the underlying BTC collateral will not be controlled by TRON’s founder. It is possible that Sun may have enough BTC for supplying the collateral. TRON users could also start depositing BTC to use the new multi-chain WBTC token. 

Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva

Banana Gun’s team claimed no vulnerability on their side. After an exploit against individual wallets, the bot was frozen for investigation. 

Banana Gun bot has no vulnerabilities on its backend, the team announced after investigating the issue. The issue may be on the bot’s frontend, and some of the transfers may have a manual element. Only a small number of wallets were affected. 

UPDATE ON BOT SITUATION

Today, some users of Banana Gun experienced unauthorized transfers from their wallets. Promptly after the first incident, we immediately switched off the bot and began diligently checking our back-end.

We have confirmed that our back-end is not…

— Banana Gun 🍌🔫 (@BananaGunBot) September 19, 2024

“We have confirmed that our back-end is not compromised. Both the router and database have been thoroughly inspected, and only a very small number of users (fewer than 10) were affected. Additionally, the transfers appear to have been executed manually,” announced the team on X. 

The Banana Gun bot will remain offline until the exact reason for the exploits is found. Since the bot is used through Telegram, some seek the vulnerability with the chat app. Telegram has been known to distribute malicious channels and fake token deals. Using the bot still requires action on the side of the user, after activating on Telegram. 

The exploit happened just as Banana Gun opened its registration for a web-based version and put out a teaser for an Appstore launch with no 

Immediately after the news, the BANANA token crashed from $43 to $40.34. The token may remain under pressure while the bot is offline. Banana Gun is the most active bot, with lifetime accrued volume of $6.7B in sniping meme tokens and DEX assets.

All bot users with wallets linked to the bot are advised to stop all trading and sweep the assets into a new wallet. Banana Gun requires some liquidity to make the orders, and the funds are at a higher risk compared to being stored in other types of wallets. 

536 ETH and SOL taken from Banana Gun deposits

The exact mechanism of transferring tokens through a bot-based order is still unknown. The last drained bot-connected accounts happened a few hours ago, with no new reports of losses while the bot was paused. There are hypotheses that the origin of transactions came from hacked Telegram accounts. 

Up to 536 ETH were drained from the selected wallets, and the exploit has not affected the wider user base. Banana Gun has 5,072 users daily on average, though it is one of the biggest producers of DEX traffic and transactions. The bot carries more than 272K accounts, opening a wider vulnerability of funds uploaded for sniping. 

The estimated value of losses is at $1.9M. The total losses also included Solana-based asses, expanding the hack to $2M. User yannickcrypto.eth found 36 compromised users, for a total of 536 ETH stolen, with some data on SOL also drained from bot accounts. 

After the exploit, one of the recipient addresses only retained 26 ETH, while the other address contains 62 ETH. The second address received funds from two other power users, draining their wallets for 30 and 32 ETH. The hacks affected heavy DEX users and there are rumors more accounts have been drained. 

One of the known addresses of the Banana Gun bot hacker drained two other whale wallets. | Source: Nansen

After the Banana Gun exploit, other social media traps emerged, claiming to have tools for coin recovery. Connecting wallets to those services may extend the damage. 

Banana Gun stalled during NEIRO token craze

Just as Banana Gun was stopped, the bot’s volumes may also affect the NEIRO market craze. As of September 19, NEIRO had the biggest share of attempted snipes and trades. 

More than 43% of the Banana Gun bot activity was pointed at the NEIRO/WETH trading pair and 17% for another version of NEIRO/WETH. Other meme tokens sniped before the exploit included CATE, CATALORIAN and KABOSU.

The bot supports up to 1,000 highly active pairs on Uniswap and Raydium.   

The Banana Gun bot also needs sufficient balance for fees, as its most active networks are Ethereum and Solana. Some of the power traders have paid upward of $1M in fees. Solana bribes are the biggest drain on wallets, though this is necessary for guaranteed inclusion in the next block. 

 –

Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva. 

PlayStation has announced the limited collection for the 30th-anniversary collection. The collection will have a newly released PS5 pro but with a mix of PS1 style. This special limited edition will be released on November 21st for the fans to relive the past.

Playstations will release its limited edition collection on its 30th anniversary.  The collection is a blend of original PS1 color design integrated into the latest PS5 pro.

Timeless ‘90s style returns ✨

Unveiling the PlayStation 30th Anniversary Collection, launching November 21: https://t.co/4FnfQRQVSi pic.twitter.com/fiN9pagI99

— PlayStation (@PlayStation) September 19, 2024

The original PlayStation was released on December 3rd, 1994. On November 21st, 2024, PlayStation will celebrate 30 years with its limited collection which “brings the past together with the present.”

What is happening to the United States of America? The once mighty land, a leader in all fronts, military, economy, education, and social structure, is on the verge of falling into shambles. 

Elon Musk, the richest man in the world has weighed in on what’s happening and come to the conclusion that “unless Trump is elected, America will fall to tyranny.” He adds that “Trump must win.”

The remarks follow the fear that America is losing the power that comes on X outlined what they call “Path to an American dictatorship.” Step one is to empower the bureaucracy; after that, step two is to censor speech and dissent. Lastly, step three that comes with disarming the population. 

To that end, they remarked, “The only candidate running against this agenda is called a threat to democracy.” Elon Musk agrees that Trump could be a moral and economic salvation to America

America is on the edge of collapse

Donald Trump is racing up against Kamala Harris on who will be America’s next president. Unlike other presidential runs, America is currently plagued with illegal immigrants, moral decay, violence, a huge homeless population, and racial crimes.

Elon Musk has pointed out that Democrats’ immigration strategy threatens democracy. Musk argues that “The [Democrats] are doing it by importing vast numbers of migrants into the country.“

America’s VP Kamala Harris – Source X

Elon pointed out that the 2030 census counts everyone, regardless of citizenship, which could give Democrats 15+ additional House seats, creating a permanent majority. He argues that “Even 1% of 15 million becoming legal every year is 600,000 every four years,” strategically altering swing states and locking in future wins.

Musk adds, “The regulatory state, which is oppressing progress, and the use of lawfare against individuals and companies have grown tremendously under this administration. There is no chance of getting humanity to Mars unless there is regulatory reform.”

The State of California is in its worst state as of now. Musk says that if Kamala Harris becomes president, America will become one big California, but worse. 

California: Source – X

He says, “My prediction is that if Kamala wins, the Dems will import and legalize enough migrants to ensure a permanent one-party rule that is increasingly socialist (to a confiscatory level) and repressive.” 

Trump campaign agenda in America

The Republican presidential nominee and former president is visiting Uniondale, Long Island, a place that could be critical to his party preserving control of the House. His party is working to protect 18 Republicans in Democratic-leaning congressional districts that Joe Biden won in 2020.

Again, Trump claims he can win New York, a Democratic stronghold. Trump portrays the city as a dangerous and dirty crime hotspot despite the fact that it is still one of the world’s safest major cities.

The US presidential election is slated for November 5. Incumbent US President Joe Biden was supposed to represent the Democrats at the election but later decided to drop out of the race after his poor performance in June in the debate with his predecessor Trump who later became the Republican presidential nominee. 

He endorsed the nomination of Kamala Harris, who was confirmed as the Democratic nominee for US presidential candidate in August. Harris is currently the US vice president.

The final trailer of Dragon Ball: Sparkling! Zero was dropped today on September 19th. It revealed a full character roster with 182 playable characters, setting a reckoned in the Budokai Tenkaichi series. Furthermore, the game will feature two main game modes: Episode Battle and Custom Battle. 

 

Dragon Ball: Sparkling! Zero is scheduled to launch on October 11, 2024. The “Super Character Trailer” was dropped today as the final pre-launch announcement, showcasing the full character roaster, which also includes fan-famous Broly (Z), Cooler, and Lord Slug. 

There are new additions as well like Frieza Force Soldier, and Cabba with his Super Saiyan forms. Additionally, Tapion and Janemba, the iconic villains will also be featured in the Dragon Ball: Sparkling! Zero.

The trailer also described two main game modes. Episode Battle, with classic anime moments for the players to relive. The second one is Custom Battle, which allows the players to create personalized scenarios as the name suggests.

Dragon Ball: Sparkling! Zero preorders will have GOKU (Mini) as the bonus character

 

Goku Mini in Dragon Ball: Sparkling! Source: DRAGON BALL: Sparking! Zero – Full Roster Reveal – Youtube

Players who preorder the game will be granted exclusive access to Goku (Mini) from Dragon Ball Daima.

The highly anticipated game will be available on PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, and PC on October 11th, 2024.

Grayscale’s XRP Trust net asset value is up 11.44% just a week since its official launch. On September 17, the trust reached a remarkable high of $11.77 NAV per share. Although there was a slight dip today, with the value adjusting to around $11.49, the overall trend remains positive as investors continue to show strong interest.

Grayscale’s XRP Trust sees impressive NAV per share performance

Grayscale formally announced the release of its XRP Trust on September 12. Grayscale’s Head of Product & Research, Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, remarked:

We believe Grayscale XRP Trust gives investors exposure to a protocol with an important real-world use case. By facilitating cross-border payments that take just seconds to complete, XRP has the potential to transform the legacy financial infrastructure.

~Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary

However, before the official company announcement, Grayscale’s XRP Trust performance stood at a low of  $10.31 NAV per share on September 6 before rising to $10.81 on September 10 and $11.25 on September 12.

The trust’s net asset value performance continued to appreciate and finally hit a high of $11.77 NAV per share on Tuesday, which invited multiple commentaries and support. Crypto analyst CryptoMoses reported in an X post on the high NAV, saying it hinted at “strong momentum.” Another user on X said the surge was a ‘promising sign for investors, ’ highlighting heightened institutional interest.

As of September 18, Grayscale’s XRP Trust was at $11.49 NAV per share, a slight 2.38% drop from its high. However, this culminated in an 11.44% surge from its September 6th performance.

Source: Grayscale The value performance of Grayscale’s NEAR and Avalanche Trusts plummets

While Grayscale only started its XRP trust last week, the asset manager has launched other trusts dedicated to different tokens, including NEAR and Avalanche Token.

The Grayscale NEAR Trust, which launched on May 23, has its value down to $6.12 on September 18, representing a 0.97% slump from its September 17th performance.  Moreover, the trust performance has seen even more declines in the month, dropping to as low as $5.29 on September 6.

Grayscale’s Avalanche Trust net value is also down, recording a 1.68% drop in the last 24 hours. The trust stands at $11.72 NAV per share with $1,025,217.09 AVAX assets under management. From its high of $13.34 on August 23, the current NAV per share represents another 12% drop.

However, the company’s SUI Trust performance is on an uptick. In just 24 hours, its NAV per share rose almost 8%, surpassing the XRP trust performance in the same period.

Hackers Greavys (Malone Iam), Wiz (Veer Chetal), and Box (Jeandiel Serrano) pulled off a $243 million crypto theft last month. The single victim, a Genesis creditor, was taken for everything in a detailed social engineering attack.

This incident was carefully planned, and the execution was flawless (no offense to the victim).

ZachXBT, an on-chain investigator, has been on the case, connecting the dots and working with law enforcement to freeze millions and make multiple arrests.

The attack kicked off on August 19. Greavys, Wiz, and Box used spoofed numbers and fake support calls to pose as Google and Gemini representatives.

They manipulated the victim into resetting their two-factor authentication (2FA) and transferring funds from their Gemini account to a compromised wallet. 

The hackers also got access to the victim’s private Bitcoin keys using AnyDesk, a remote desktop software, during a screen-sharing session. 

Once the keys were exposed, they became unstoppable.

The first major Bitcoin transaction occurred at 1:48 am GMT, with 59.34 BTC (Gemini transaction hash: e747b963a463334c164b0a8fff844f73693272bb2b331adbe2147d70ec196360). 

Not long after, another 14.88 BTC was moved at 2:30 am (hash: 7c7ebed785f0b4d4335d559b14b8215862fbe29db329e3ee0f2a7e64a16ce9e3). 

But oh, that was just the beginning.

 

This is a developing story

FTX’s distribution of creditor funds is still expected to start in Q4. The earliest stage of the process is just weeks away, with $16B of crypto assets set to be released back into circulation. 

Even after its crash and deep losses, FTX holds assets estimated to as much as $16B. The remaining wallets of the exchange and Alameda research were scraped and sent into custodial wallets. Some of the assets are still visible in the remaining FTX wallets, or special bankruptcy addresses. 

The claims based on creditor history and FTX balances are estimated at $16.264B. FTX spent months reorganizing and liquidating some of its assets, establishing $12B in cash reserves and sufficient stablecoins. In May, FTX issued a statement claiming its recovered funds were between $14.5B and $16.3B, enough to potentially repay 98% of its creditors. 

The most contentious point is that FTX continues to claim all creditors will be made whole. Unfortunately, BTC depositors on the exchange held whole coins, now trading above $63,000. FTX did not hold or keep these coins in safe custody. So, it will instead repay the monetary value of BTC at the time of the exchange’s failure, which was $16,800. 

The good news is FTX has finished most of the selling and liquidation, only holding a few remaining wallets of tokens and the occasional NFT. The bad news is that the process may not be straightforward and simple, and will take into account a long list of other claims and settlements.

Popcat (POPCAT) is going through another upward leg, attempting to repeat its highs of breaking above $0.90. POPCAT is one of the top meme coins, and these rapid appreciation cycles are typical when whales roll over from other tokens. 

Popcat (POPCAT) joined the ranks of leading daily gainers, entering the list that measures the top 100 coins and tokens in that category. POPCAT’s rally mirrored the success of tokens with more liquidity and sound narratives, including AI and infrastructure assets.

After the recent near-vertical rally, POPCAT stands at $0.92, an impressive price movement that compares favorably with its best 24-hour to date. After a nearly 30% rally in the past 24 hours, POPCAT sparked talks of rallying above $1. Some predictions have POPCAT following the trajectory of DogWifHat (WIF), growing to as much as $5 given enough liquidity. 

POPCAT is a top-10 meme coin

POPCAT ranks easily among the top 10 meme coins, often rotating positions with PEPE or WIF. However, unlike older meme tokens, POPCAT only graduated to Bybit and Gate.io listings and a small market on KuCoin.

During the latest rally, POPCAT activity moved between Bybit, Gate.io, and MEXC, three exchanges that list new memes relatively quickly. POPCAT started its ascent from Raydium, the leading Solana DEX. Around 37% of the token’s volume hinges on Gate.io trades, with market-maker wallets performing high-volume transactions. 

POPCAT saw high-volume transactions between exchanges and high-traffic whale wallets. | Source: Bubblemaps

Despite relying on relatively small markets, POPCAT reported more than $168M in daily volumes, easily surpassing utility coins and tokens with more serious use cases. There are talks of a Binance listing that could tap the meme coin’s activity. However, a Binance listing may not always have a positive effect on a token’s price, as some holders use the listing to take advantage of additional liquidity and sell their positions. 

POPCAT has seen three major rallies since March 2024, each time retreating to a baseline between $0.50 and $0.60. The asset remains risky, as peaks always precede drawdowns by 30% or more. 

During the recent rally, POPCAT also made a bid to grow its valuation to $1B, with the potential to rally to become a top 5 meme token.  

POPCAT is also widely distributed to end holders, with more than 68K addresses.

One potential scenario is for POPCAT to compete with WIF. For now, it is still lagging behind WIF and BONK, which are the highest-ranked Solana meme tokens. However, the recent rally propelled POPCAT ahead of all other cat-themed tokens, including Simon’s Cat (CAT), a meme coin with a high-profile Binance trading pair. 

POPCAT may also become the first cat-themed token to break the $1B mark. Currently, the asset has the largest weight among cat-themed tokens, which, taken together, have a market cap of 1.5B. If POPCAT moves to a higher price range or gains more liquid listings, it could outweigh the rest of the cat-themed assets.

During the latest trading peak, POPCAT had around 3,998 daily active users. The token is widely distributed, though there may be connected wallets. Buyers slightly outnumber sellers, making up 50.48% of the volume.  

Whales bet on POPCAT

POPCAT performed the last few rallies with almost predictable waves of appreciation. The token has around $2.6M in liquidity on one of its strongest Orca DEX pairs, and it may be relatively easy to sway through whale activity. As of September 19, many of the transactions on Orca originated from whale wallets. 

Whale wallets originated multiple transactions through Orca, a leading exchange on Solana. | Source: Dexscreener

Some of the buyers are simply holding the tokens, refusing to sell even after the 30% rally. One of the whale wallets bought up POPCAT at $0.68 in the past few days, spending $4.13M in USDC. POPCAT is the whale’s biggest holding, with additional small-scale holdings in other meme assets. 

The two wallets now hold more than $5.4M worth of POPCAT, with no outgoing transactions noticed. The same wallets accumulated POPCAT back in April and realized some profits at the beginning of September. 

Even for whales and former earners, POPCAT may be an irrational bet with no serious plans except making the best of pumps. Whales are even making small-scale orders through Orca or other Solana-based DEX. 

POPCAT also sees almost constant MEV bot orders, aiming to snipe the price at the right moment, with no delays or canceled transactions. The heightened activity on POPCAT is tracking the price momentum, as the asset is expanding its volumes close to an all-time high.

Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva.

An ancient Ether whale recently became active and went on a spelling spree. Most of the address’ ETH sell-off came in when ETH was dealing with heavy selling pressure. The whale address has sold more than $24 million worth of ETH over the past 3 days. 

The second-most dominant cryptocurrency has made a rebound as its price recovered through a 6% jump in price over the last 24 hours. However, ETH is still down by 8% over the past 30 days as the recently launched Ether-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to bleed.

Ancient whale dumps 10.5k Ether

According to the data shared by Spot on Chain, the ancient whale account has dumped a sizable allocation of 10,595 ETH (worth approximately $24.7 million) on the market over the past day. These back-to-back sales did not seem to consider market conditions.

The whale sold 2,364 ETH (worth approximately $5.44 million) on September 15, 16 at an average price of $2,302. The rest of the lot was moved for disposal over the last 48 hours. This whale has been selling for 87.56 Ether every few minutes.

The same address is still holding 6,042 Ether (worth approximately $14.7 million) which is 36.3% of the original amount it held before the sell-off started. The estimated profit from cumulative holdings turns out to be 451x (worth approximately $39.34 million).

Ethereum faces more pressure

Crypto analyst Ali reported that more than 547,600 ETH have been deposited to crypto exchanges in the last three weeks. The cumulative amount of these Ether stands at $1.26 billion.

Over 547,600 $ETH have been sent to #crypto exchanges in the last three weeks, worth over $1.26 billion! pic.twitter.com/mTQeXdnTtr

— Ali (@ali_charts) September 18, 2024

Lookonchain shared that an Ether ICO participant has also deposited 10,000 ETH (worth approximately $24.37 million) into the crypto exchange Kraken. This depositor came out of a two-year dormancy. Meanwhile, the whale wallet had received around 50,000 Ethereum at an ICO cost of $15.5K which is now worth approximately $121.85 million.

The biggest altcoin is already dealing with selling pressure and its price performance clearly reflects it. ETH price dropped by over 30% in the last 60 days but it recorded a slight recovery over the past days. ETH is trading at an average price of $2,425 as of press time.

Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $9.738 million yesterday, marking day three of their outflow streak.

A global exchange-traded fund, WisdomTree announced the release of WisdomTreeConnect, a new Ethereum-based platform that prioritizes access to tokenized real-world assets (RWAs). The platform will augment the accessibility and use of WisdomTree’s issued tokens, allowing holders to trade them across multiple blockchains. 

WisdomTreeConnect expands to dApps, boosting business opportunities

Global ETF and asset manager WisdomTree has launched its latest platform, WisdomTreeConnect, with the tokenization of RWAs in mind. The platform will work with WisdomTree’s retail-based application, WisdomTree Prime, to offer its digital assets across multiple chains, providing an easier trade option for institutional and retail consumers.

According to the global ETF, WisdomTreeConnect will bridge the gap between traditional and decentralized finance (DeFi) and incorporate WisdomTree Government Money Market Digital Fund (WTGXX). The platform will also integrate blockchain for efficient record-keeping and security. It will now be accessible on the web portal and through API, even as the firm explores more opportunities in dApps. 

Institutional users will also have the option to buy or redeem their tokens in USD and USDC, infusing features for fiat-to-crypto conversions and vice versa. Additionally, tokens will be first minted on Ethereum even as the asset manager plans to add more blockchains in time.

Will Peck, Head of Digital Assets at WisdomTree, commented:

“We’re thrilled to announce the launch of WisdomTree Connect. With increasing interest in tokenized real-world assets, WisdomTree Connect opens up additional business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-business-to-consumer (B2B2C) opportunities for WisdomTree to provide access to digital funds to on-chain firms without leaving the ecosystem.”

~Will Peck

Financial giants race to tokenize RWAs

BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are at the forefront of the tokenization movement in asset management. Larry Fink, BlackRock’s CEO, noted that tokenization could lower settlement costs and offer tailored investment options. 

Franklin Templeton’s CEO, Jenny Johnson, has reportedly talked about blockchain, highlighting its cost-effectiveness and how much it would open room for more investment opportunities. She touched on the broader application of tokenized assets, projecting that loyalty programs will be integrated more with RWAs.

Now, both companies have assets under management worth over $400 million. For instance, as of September 18, BlackRock’s USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) held assets roughly worth $520 million, and Franklin Templeton’s OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund (FOBXX) stood at approximately $430 million in assets. WisdomTree’s tokenized money fund, Government Money Market Digital (WTGXX), trails them with less than $8 million. 

Solana Mobile is dropping Seeker, its second crypto phone in 2025. It is anticipated that this thing is packed with tech upgrades and some crypto magic. Solana’s second smartphone is coming up with a better battery, sharper camera, and a lighter, sleeker design which might give your current phone a major crypto complexion.

Seeker comes after a well known success of the sellout Saga. Its presales have reportedly surpassed 140,000 units around 57 countries. Solana, now the 5th biggest crypto, has seen a tough quarter in 2024 and expects a rebound after the launch of its new device.

Solana drops Seeker

Solana’s Seeker is coming out as the mobile-first crypto wallet which is natively integrated with the device’s built in self-custodial Seed Vault. It is done in order to ensure a seamless web3 experience accompanied by double tap transactions and simplified account management. It claims to be created exclusively for the phone in collaboration with Solflare.

Its official website is offering an early founder pricing at $450 for Solana Seeker presales which will be available until September 21, 2024. 

Seeker is loaded with Solana dApp store 2.0 that will feature a new rewards tracker and improved discoverability for apps. This includes Payments, DeFi, DePIN, NFTs, AI and Gaming. It is expected to work with zero fees and crypto friendly policies.

4/ We’ve updated the Solana Mobile dApp Store with a streamlined way to track all your rewards in one place. Discover web & mobile dApps with better navigation.

With zero fees and crypto-friendly policies, it’s home to the best web3 experiences—and Seeker exclusives are coming! pic.twitter.com/BbiqFoVgEL

— Seeker | Solana Mobile (@solanamobile) September 19, 2024

The fresh Solana phone will hold a soulbond “Seeker Genesis Token”. It acts like a VIP pass to earn rewards, and access content in the Solana ecosystem. However, for builders, the device asserts to connect them with real Solana OGs.

Solana Saga listed on eBay

Solana’s first Saga phone was priced at around $1,000 at the time of launch but later it was declined to $599. This was majorly due to an initial struggle to gain traction. First-gen devices often come with their share of whoops moments.

December 2023 saw the Mobile price skyrocketing by 500% on eBay which was tweaked by the jump in Solana based meme coin BONK prices. The firm was forced to limit the stock to just 20,000 phones which went sold out in US and Europe. SOL and BONK prices have struggled since then.

Airdrops season coming in?

People lucky enough to get their hands on Solana’s Seeker may be able to claim the current airdrops available on the Saga phone.

Solana’s biggest meme coin, BONK, led the charge to generate buzz around the Saga. Saga owners snagged 30 million BONK tokens. That’s $525 now, but at its peak, it was over $1,000. Samoyedcoin, another Solana-based dog coin, also got in on the action, offering 1,250 SAMO tokens. While it’s not a fortune, free tokens are always a win.

Access Protocol dished out 100K ACS tokens to Saga users. At its peak, it was $370 but now a cool $250, still it’s good for simply owning a phone.

Saga Monkes NFTs took the spotlight as these collectibles, airdropped for Saga holders in January. They have seen their price floor soar to $1,250 worth of SOL. Even now, they’re fetching over $600. Honeyland brought gaming perks to the mix. Saga owners get 50 HXD tokens and a Beemium upgrade worth about $35. It is expected that there more upcoming airdrops for the Solana mobile community.

Crypto.com, a leading global crypto exchange, has received a crypto payment service provider license in the Kingdom of Bahrain from the Central Bank of Bahrain. The exchange had already received a license from Dubai’s VARA in the UAE.

According to the Crypto.com press release, this is part of its expansion in the GCC region.

Crypto.com received a payment service provider (PSP) services from the Central Bank of Bahrain through its subsidiary registered in the Kingdom of Bahrain under the commercial name “FORIS GFS BH B.S.C. CLOSED”.

The PSP license will allow Crypto.com to expand its offerings of e-money and fiat-based payment services regionally, including the launch of its world-renowned prepaid cards.

“With its extensive international presence and an earned reputation for regulatory compliance, we are delighted that Crypto.com has chosen the Kingdom of Bahrain as a destination for investment, which will further bolster Bahrain’s ability to deliver on its vision of developing a digital-first, resilient economy that celebrates innovation and progress,” said H.E. Noor bint Ali Alkhulaif, Minister of Sustainable Development and Chief Executive of the Bahrain Economic Development Board.

She added, “Backed by the agility of our Team Bahrain approach, which fosters a streamlined investment environment that champions ease of doing business, Bahrain is successfully building a world-class ecosystem to support the evolution of the fast-growing blockchain, crypto and fintech industry. This is further supported by robust regulations and a diverse, highly skilled, and future-ready talent pool, particularly within the financial services and technology sectors.”

We’re proud to announce our latest milestone in global regulatory compliance and licensure.https://t.co/vCNztATkNg receives Payment Service Provider Licence from Central Bank of Bahrain More details 👉 https://t.co/sHQAZSBI34 pic.twitter.com/VoWrTKr3zY

— Crypto.com (@cryptocom) September 19, 2024

“Bahrain has been working to create an innovation-friendly crypto and fintech ecosystem, which has involved putting in place clear regulation that balances consumer protection with commercialisation,” said Eric Anziani, President and COO of Crypto.com. “We appreciate the work of the Kingdom and look forward to progressing our relationship as we play our part in growing the crypto industry in Bahrain and across the GCC.”

Bahrain was among the first in the region to issue crypto-asset licenses, granting them to Rain crypto broker, CoinMENA, and later Binance.

Cypto.com is additionally licensed for specific services in key markets around the world, including Singapore, France, Australia, Ireland, Malta, United Kingdom, United States, Canada, and South Korea among others.

What is so bad about Kamala Harris winning the November 4th American Presidential elections? Bidenomics has tanked the American economy to its worst since the 2007-2008 Great Recession. Throughout her tenure as the 49th US Vice President, the economy has been on the verge of a recession.

Now, hedge fund managers and billionaires have sworn to withdraw their investments from the market if Kamala wins as POTUS. Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson has threatened to remove his money from the US markets if former President Donald Trump is not re-elected in November’s presidential election.

Kamala Harris bad for the American and global economy?

Paulson, whose hedge fund manages an estimated $9 billion across various sectors, voiced concerns about Kamala Harris’ proposed economic policies. Paulson made these remarks on Fox Business’ ‘The Claman Countdown’ segment on Tuesday.

“If Harris was elected, I would pull my money from the market. I’d go into cash, and I’d go into gold because I think the uncertainty regarding the plans they outlined would create a lot of uncertainty in the markets and likely lower markets.”

John Paulson

Paulson’s worries stem from Harris’ tax plans. Kamala plans to implement a 25% tax on unrealized gains, that “would cause mass selling of almost everything—stocks, bonds, homes, art” according to the billionaire.  These economic plans would result in a crash in the markets and a “pretty quick recession.” 

On the other hand, after predicting the election would come down to “who’s gonna do better for the middle class,” Paulson argued, “When you look at the facts, the Trump policies come out better for the average American.”

Paulson has warned these policies could lead to mass selling and market crashes, predicting a quick recession if enacted.

Middle-class Americans are in trouble

The 64-year-old billionaire stated that the November 5 general election winner will determine the future of the American stock market and economy.

Paulson says that the future of the American economy is very much depends on who is in the White House and who controls Congress. His main concern is if Harris is elected and pursues the tax plans and other economic plans she has, it could be the end of the American greatest economy.

Paulson believes the 2024 presidential election comes down to the middle class. “I think the middle class is key for this election,” Paulson said. “And who’s gonna do better for the middle class. When you look at the facts, the Trump policy had come out better for the average American.”

John Paulson – Source: FOX

On Trump, Paulson adds that under his administration average real wages grew about 6.5%. However, under Biden, because of the high inflation, real wages declined from where they were when he started.

“That’s why so many middle [class] Americans are having so many difficulties with common expenses like rent and food.” Paulson believes inflation is coming down, but more can be done to help it. To that end, FED yesterday lowered hike rates on the belief that the American economy has recovered.

In her presidential debate, Kamala Harris tapped into the woes of the middle class. She claimed she was raised in a middle-class household and understood everyone’s fears.

However, not everyone is buying that sentiment. Warren Buffett has been selling his stocks and pilling up cash. Elon Musk says that Buffett has been planning for the very worst.

Kamala Harris – Source: Fox

Musk is also of the opinion that if Kamala wins, the American nation will fall into tyranny. He says “My prediction is that if Kamala wins […] everywhere will be California, but worse.”

Animoca Brands is sending out Pixels (PIXEL) tokens to Binance. The shift in holdings arrived just a day after the investment and Web3 company sent out more than 5K Ethereum (ETH). 

The corporation may be taking profits from its wallets, with the latest transaction in Pixels (PIXEL) tokens. 

Animoca Brands is the leading investor for some of Pixel’s funding rounds. However, the recent selling is not a total liquidation. Instead, a hot wallet was used to buy up, then resell PIXEL. Animoca Brands accumulated the asset at a price of $0.13 and sold after PIXEL hiked up to just $0.14. The recent sale for 20M PIXEL, valued at $2.44M, divested all the recent balances of Animoca Brands. 

In the past month, the same address acquired $1.3M worth of PIXEL, then divested to zero within a week. The recent PIXEL transactions are the conclusion of buying the tokens on September 16, then reselling days later. The recent buildup of funds did not even place Animoca Brands among the top 150 PIXEL addresses. 

The final effect mostly affected the PIXEL token, achieving the highest volumes for the past month. It is possible the buying and reselling from Animoca Brands is a way to revive the token’s visibility and boost the Pixels game.

The Animoca Brands wallet started accumulating PIXEL after recent selling pressure, essentially buying the dip. PIXEL awaits a potential breakout from lows, after erasing more than 66% of its value since the latest rally in June, when the token returned above $0.50.

In 2022, Animoca Brands oversaw the seed round for Pixels, capped at $2.4M. Most of the early investors are in the money at this price range, with up to 29X gains from some of the private presale rounds. 

PIXEL expects more token unlocks

PIXEL is a low-float token, with just 22% of the assets unlocked. In 2025, the speed of unlocks will accelerate, releasing some of the tokens from the earliest presale rounds. The token is a relatively recent launch, trading during the market peak in March 2024. PIXEL peaked at $0.96, and has since declined to its current levels, on a mix of selling and the overall market correction in Q2. 

The token has a limited number of holders, just 5,613. Pixels launched later than the initial play-to-earn boom, and started as a free game to onboard users. Token usage remains relatively low, despite listings on Binance and other major exchanges. 

PIXEL has some of the characteristics of a VC-backed token, but trades on a smaller scale. The project has never gained overwhelming hype and prominence, instead trying to focus on actually growing a gaming audience. 

Pixels reports high-frequency activity on-chain, with more than 509K daily active wallets, a feat for a Web3 game. However, only around 870 players own Farmland NFT, while the rest choose the free versions to build their farming empire. 

Pixels is also part of the Ronin ecosystem, which also supports Axie Infinity. The network supports trading the Pixels farmland plots. The game follows a model similar to Sunflower Land, with constant upgrades to a pixel farm. Playing the game requires a farmland plot NFT, while in-game items are dropped for leveling up. 

Farmland by Pixels is also trying to retain its activity through game incentives. As of September 2024, farmland NFT is ranked at position 66 based on its floor price. Recently, the floor price for farmland increased to 1.08 ETH.

Animoca Brands also suspected of selling ETH

Animoca Brands is also an Ethereum whale, after completing as many as 20 funding rounds during the peak of play-to-earn gaming. After raising more than $795M and building five native games, Animoca Brands switched to being an investor in the Web3 space. 

Another recent sale suggests Animoca Brands may be taking profits from Ethereum (ETH). A wallet identified as belonging to the gaming VC fund moved 5,500 ETH into Binance’s hot wallet. The address is marked as possibly belonging to Animoca Brands, and is a general high-balance wallet. 

The latest ETH sale was part of active trading, with a fast purchase and resale during the recent fast market recovery. 

Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva

Binance, the largest crypto exchange on the planet and once a beacon of honesty/transparency in the industry, is now being accused of insider trading and market manipulations.

In the aftermath of founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao’s reign, CEO Richard Teng has certainly taken the company towards an entirely different direction.

Now CZ is one of the most respected people in the industry. He became known for being completely transparent with the industry, a trait his fellow founder, Yi He, seemingly also exhibits.

Yi He with Changpeng Zhao. Credits: Yi He

But the community doesn’t seem too confident in Richard at all.

Is Binance manipulating the market?

What triggered the allegations was two NEIRO tokens which saw their value skyrocket by over 700% collectively within 24 hours of its listing on Binance barely three days ago.

And get this, 78% of NEIRO were distributed to insiders way before the launch. Bit odd, isn’t it?

NEIRO was inspired by Akita Neiro, a rescue dog linked to Atsuko Sato, the original owner of Kabosu, the Dogecoin dog. 

As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, there are over 20 versions of these tokens in the market right now.

These tokens were spread across more than 400 wallet addresses. The insiders have already sold about $9 million worth of these tokens.

Also, an unnamed address bought a lot of the tokens just before the official listing announcement. The address netted over $500,000 in unrealized profits soon after.

Binance introduced a USD-margined NEIROETH perpetual contract on September 6. This contract allows traders to leverage their positions up to 75x.

The introduction of such a high-leverage trading instrument has been criticized as it could make market volatility even worse than it already is.

That could potentially cause huge losses for retail investors.

Critics argue that Binance’s actions count as market manipulation, especially after finding out that TRON founder Justin Sun also promoted NEIRO before its listing.

Justin doesn’t have the best track record in the community.

Yi responds to allegations

Yi was quick to react to the accusations. She started by acknowledging the community’s anxiety, before pointing out that bold investments used to yield high returns in crypto’s early days.

But as the crypto market develops, this is becoming harder to achieve. With large financial institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity entering the market, we are seeing crypto operate “more closely to the stock market.”

According to Yi, Binance’s sole mission is to serve billions of users and become a foundational infrastructure for the future of blockchain. She added that:

“When we aim to drive mass adoption, we need to balance ideals with reality. Binance’s products have expanded beyond trading to include Earn, Square, Pay and the Web3 Wallet. Our goal is to make blockchain technology accessible to everyday people. Bubbles will burst, but products that genuinely meet user needs will change the world and create history.”

She proceeded to say that Binance lists projects that actually matter to users, projects that have staying power, and make sense from a business standpoint. 

They’re all about what the users want, and they genuinely pay attention to their feedback. She pointed out that Binance has listed a few meme projects that are more decentralized and have smaller market caps. 

Out of the original batch of over ten projects, Yi said a lot didn’t make the cut, either because they didn’t meet their compliance standards or their tokens were too concentrated in distribution.

She promised the community that they’re taking their criticisms very seriously and that:

“If it is found that there is a suspicion of information leakage or insider trading, Binance will immediately initiate judicial procedures to transfer relevant personnel to the judicial organs, and serious cases will face criminal responsibility.”

As for Richard, however, he has been too busy at Singapore Token2049 to address the community.

This comes as the community is counting down the days until CZ gets out of prison, which is on September 29th.

Before the US Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision on September 18, analysts were majorly expecting a smaller cut of 0.25%. The decision comes amid growing concerns about economic conditions, with many drawing similarities between the current economy and that of 2007.

The dollar has gained as a result of the interest decision, but the top US indices have given in to profit-taking after an initial record rise.

The 0.50% cut was unexpected

Before the United States Federal Reserve was set to announce its interest rate decision, the CME FedWatch marked a 100% probability of a monetary easing. However, the analysts anticipated that it is more likely that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rates by 0.25%. However, for the first time in four years, the Fed decided to cut the rate by half a point.

Before the rate cut decision, analyst Brett noted on X that there had been similarities between the economic conditions of 2007 and 2024. It includes some key economic indicators like the unemployment rate, inflation rate, housing starts, leading economic activity, and existing home sales. Despite this, Brett said that he is not predicting a repeat of the 2007 financial crash.

However, an analysis by The Kobeissi Letter reveals that the Fed has started rate cuts with a 50 bps slash in only 2 instances earlier. Both times led to a recession. Meanwhile, the Interest rate futures predict 8 interest rate cuts in 12 months, which reportedly hasn’t happened since 2008.

Friendly reminder.

10 of the last 14 Fed rate cut cycles directly led to a Recession.

The only times they didn't – 1966, 1984, 1995, and 1998 – the economy was noticeably stronger than it was today.

Less debt. Better GDP growth. More savings. And a reduction in unemployment,… pic.twitter.com/xSYqlrl4ah

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) September 18, 2024

The stocks cheered but profit-taking took over

According to data points by The Kobeissi Letter, if the Fed avoids a recession after cutting rates by 50 basis points, it would be the first time that a recession doesn’t follow. Considering big cuts signal a weak economy, rate cuts of 2001 and 2007 signaled just that. Stock markets reported a 31% and 26% decline after months of the respective cuts.

The platform also notes that history tells us that if rate cuts start with 25 bps, the S&P 500 tends to go up 10% in 3 months and 15% over a year. But if the cuts start with 50 bps, stocks tend to drop, with around a 15% decline in 12 months.

According to Reuters, the central bankers plan to lower interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% by the end of 2024. The Fed is expected to make two 0.25% cuts in November and December. By the end of 2025, the report predicts by citing policymakers that the rate will drop to 3.4%, with four more small cuts next year. By 2026-2027, the rate could stabilize around 2.9% based on the predictions.

The immediate reaction to the rate cut has however been a stock market rally.

After the policy announcement, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 stock indices briefly reached record highs. However, profit-taking caused the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq to end lower. The USD gained as a result of the larger-than-expected interest rate cut.

The decision also led the former Republican presidential nominee to take a dig at the independence of the Fed. Ramaswamy questions the timing of the rate cut as it precedes closely before the November elections. However, the longer term reaction of the stock market and the GDP growth will decide if the economic conditions can steer clear of a recession this time around.

The US Congress is burdened by regulating the fast-growing AI sector, with a total of 120 bills floating around the Congress. The bills cover the vast areas of AI technology, its development, and deployment across sectors.

According to the MIT Technology Review, this is a reflection of the US Congress’s desperate attempts to keep up pace with the many developments coming from the AI industry. The bills also give an insight into what the lawmakers perceive to be dangerous or not, areas of focus and priority as well as the US’ broad vision on AI regulation.

US Congress has bills covering a cocktail of AI issues

Out of the over 100 bills currently with Congress, one of them is meant to improve knowledge of the technology and its use in public schools while the other seeks to push developers to any copyrighted material used when training their models.

At least three of the bills cover areas to do with mitigating AI robocalls. Earlier this year, residents of New Hampshire once woke up to voice calls urging them to snub the February primary election, and only wait for the November presidential polls. The robocall featured an AI generated voice of President Biden.

According to MIT, two of the bills are meant to address AI-related biological risks. There is also a bill seeking to prohibit AI from launching a nuke on its own.

These various bills, Heather Vaughan, director of communications for the US House of Representatives Committee on Science Space and Technology, says are a sign of the urgency and desperate need to keep pace with the fast-growing industry.

“There is a sense of urgency. There’s a commitment to addressing this issue, because it is developing so quickly and because it is so crucial to our economy.”

– Vaughan.

Overall, the topics of the bills are dominated by science, tech, and communication at 28%, followed by commerce at 22%, while updating government operation accounts for 18%, and national security at 9%.

There are other topics that don’t get much attention like labor and employment accounting for 2%, environmental protection, and civil rights, civil liberties, and minorities accounting for 1% each.

However, despite the many bills on their table, many of them will not make it into law but reflect the areas of priority for the lawmakers regarding AI regulation.

The Brennan Center for Justice created a tracker for these AI bills that are currently circulating in the various committees in Congress.

Passing a bill through US Congress is not easy

According to the MIT Technology Review, a bill should pass through a smaller body of Congress before it gets voted by the whole Congress and many fail at this stage, never to be mentioned again. This happens because not all bills get equal attention.

However, Congress has passed several legislations on AI, for instance in 2020 the National AI Initiative Act made it through and was part of the Defense Authorization Act, which provided support for public education and workforce training on AI.

The Senate Commerce Committee also pushed through five bills in July which focused on authorizing the US AI Safety Institute to create test beds and voluntary guidelines for AI models.

Others focused on broadening education on AI and criminalizing the publication of deepfake pornography. According to MIT Technology Review, the next step would be to have the bills on congressional calendar to be voted on or debated and amended.

Executive director of the Center for AI Safety Action Fund, Varun Krovi opines the progress with these bills is a positive development.

“We need to codify the US AI Safety Institute into law if you want to maintain our leadership on the global stage when it comes to standards development,” he said.

“And we need to make sure that we pass a bill that provides computing capacity required for startups, small businesses, and academia to pursue AI.”

– Krovi.

After the Senate’s lead, the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology also passed nine more bills on Sept. 11, focusing on improving AI in schools.

Another insight worth mentioning from the bills is that two thirds of the bills are sponsored by Democrats. This, according to MIT Technology Review is not surprising as some House Republicans have claimed they want no AI regulations, arguing this might stifle innovation.

The global crypto market turned green after a long period of anticipation building around the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. The cumulative crypto market cap gained by almost 3% over the last day to stand at $2.14 trillion. Its 24 hour trading volume spiked by 20% to breach the $91 billion mark.

In a historic move, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 0.5%, marking its first cut since the early days of the COVID pandemic. This 50 basis point reduction stood as the largest since 2008 and aimed to boost the labor market and calm inflation.

Crypto bulls bleed as BTC hits $62K

As per the data shared by Coinglass, more than 67K traders were liquidated in the last 24 hours as the total liquidations breached $200 million. The largest single liquidation order of BTC/USD valued at $8.93 million happened on Bybit.

However, $123.7 million worth of liquidated bets (61%) turned out to be short positions. This suggests that the traders were expecting crypto collapse over the Fed’s decision but the biggest digital assets printed green indexes.

Bitcoin (BTC) recorded a bullish spike after the major rate cut and breached the $62,000 price level on Thursday. BTC has seen a very fluctuating 24 hours of trading as once it was trading around the $59K zone and soon it took off to regain a stable ground over $62K. 

Source: Coinglass

Data shows that more than $75 million worth of bets set on Bitcoin price got liquidated over the last 24 hours. $57 million worth of liquidated positions (75%) turned out to be short bets. BTC price surged by 3% in the past 24 hours, signaling a positive investor sentiment. Bitcoin is trading at an average price of $62,034, at the press time.

Altcoins going strong

Ethereum (ETH), struggling due to selling pressure, recorded a surge of around 4% in the last 24 hours. The recent surge has helped Ether to wash off the loss seen over the last 7 days but the 30-day metric shows that it still stands down by 10%. ETH is trading at an average price of $2,413, at the press time.

Top altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) also registered greens. SOL price jumped by 6% while ADA gained by 4.5% over the last 24 hours. The meme crypto category saw a cumulative surge of 2% as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB) soared by 4% each.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to slash interest rates by 50 basis points yesterday has folks wondering whether it could lead to another recession. 

The last two times they cut rates by more than 50 basis points, the economy fell into recession a few months later.

History is not on the Fed’s side

The first time was on January 3, 2001. The result? Over the next 448 days, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 39%, and unemployment jumped by 2.1%.

The recession that followed was tied to the dot-com bubble bursting and was made worse by the September 11 attacks.

Then, on September 18, 2007, they did it again. Another 50 basis points cut, and the S&P 500 plunged by 54% in the following 372 days. 

Jerome Powell

Unemployment surged by 5.3%. The recession lasted until mid-2009, made worse by the housing market collapse and a global financial crisis.

But here’s the thing. This time around, the signs are a little mixed. Inflation has eased, falling below 5% in August. 

The Fed’s target is 2%, and its policy committee believes they’re on the right track with the recent adjustments. But the labor market is in trouble. Unemployment has risen to 4.3% in August from 4.1% in June, the highest rate in three years. Despite it though, unemployment is still relatively low compared to past recessions.

GDP growth in Q2 hit an annualized rate of 3.0%, a sharp increase from the modest 1.4% growth in Q1. But economists predict that it could slow to around 0.6% in Q3, as high prices and high interest rates put a squeeze on consumer spending. 

The Fed’s goal to achieve a soft landing might be harder than they think. Comparing the current economic indicators with those from 2001 and 2007 adds to the concerns. 

In September 2024, the Federal Funds Rate is between 4.75% and 5.00%. Before the 2001 recession, it was around 6.5%. Before 2007, it was about 5.25%. Unemployment now is at 4.3%. It was 4.0% before 2001 and 4.6% before 2007.

Credits: Cryptopolitan

Despite these parallels, some factors suggest a recession isn’t certain. The Fed argues that the risks are balanced. They see the labor market and inflation as stable, unlike the past when severe imbalances led to economic collapse.

Still. History shows that rate cuts of this size have ALWAYS led to a recession. If the Fed manages to avoid one, it would be the first time ever.

Markets show initial positivity, crypto, quite not

The stock market is often a leading indicator of the economy’s health. After the 2001 rate cut, the S&P 500 fell nearly 40%. The Nasdaq lost about 80% of its value. The market panic was made worse by corporate scandals like Enron and the September 11 attacks. It took years for the market to recover.

In the 2007-2009 recession, the S&P 500 dropped around 57%. The financial crisis led to massive sell-offs, and major institutions needed government bailouts. Investor confidence was shattered. The recovery was slow and painful, with many stocks not regaining their pre-crisis levels for almost a decade.

Headquarters of the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

Yesterday, the market initially reacted positively to the cut. But this optimism could be short-lived.

Meanwhile, crypto markets did not react the way investors hoped. Ether couldn’t even make a break to $2,500 and Bitcoin only managed to hit $62k from $60k. Not quite the big bullish catalyst we were hoping for.

So, what could happen now? Over the next 3 to 6 months, if unemployment keeps rising and consumer spending dips, a recession could start.

If current trends persist, a gradual slowdown could lead to a recession in 6 to 12 months.

On the other hand, if conditions stabilize, with consumer spending and inflation under control, the US economy might dodge a downturn.