Review and Outlook of the Cryptocurrency Market: Learn from History and Gain Opportunities

In the wave of the cryptocurrency market, the recent market trend is like a thrilling drama. The pullback of the US stock market is like a stone thrown into a calm lake, which has aroused ripples in the cryptocurrency market and triggered a series of chain reactions.

From past experience, the dealer's operation methods seem to be traceable. The bull market in 2021 is a typical case. Bitcoin took the lead and the price continued to rise, while Ethereum seemed to be "standing still" for a period of time. It was not until January 19 that Ethereum broke through the previous high, but then the market experienced a sharp drop on the 21st, with a drop of 20% in one day, and many leveraged investors were washed out. The shock of about a week thereafter was actually the calm before the storm, and then the journey of pulling up began. The price of Ethereum doubled, and many altcoins ushered in a 10-fold increase. This carnival lasted until May 19, and then the market entered a period of market that had nothing to do with most people.

At present, the market seems to be repeating history. The price of Bitcoin fluctuates repeatedly between 100,000 and 92,000, and Ethereum also hovers in the range of 3,300-4,000. Through this "painting door" operation, the dealer gradually forms a mindset of selling at high prices for retail investors, just like the story of "The Wolf is Coming", but no one knows when the real market will break out. However, based on historical laws and the practice of dealers pulling up the market at the end of the year, perhaps this year will also allow retail investors to usher in a wave of market conditions on the eve of the Spring Festival. However, the currency circle is ever-changing, and market uncertainty always exists. Investors need to be vigilant at all times and look at market fluctuations rationally in order to find a chance in this game.

BTC and ETH market analysis

Recently, BTC has suddenly fallen in large volume, but from a fundamental point of view, there is no obvious negative news. It is currently speculated that the decline may be affected by the decline of US stocks, but the decline is beyond expectations. The so-called "dog dealer" in the market has always been elusive.

In view of the current situation, investors are advised to wait and see during the day. Consider taking action after the downward momentum of BTC decreases and stabilizes. Investors who have previously established positions can continue to hold and wait for the subsequent rise. Because from the perspective of the big cycle, the overall expectations have not changed, the bull market trend still exists, and there will be many potential positive factors such as interest rate cuts and FTX funds. Therefore, we should maintain an optimistic attitude towards the long-term trend of BTC.

As for ETH, its trend is basically synchronized with BTC, and it has also fallen in large volume, as if "returning to the pre-liberation era overnight." Similarly, it is also recommended to wait and see during the day and wait for the price to stabilize before making a decision. When the price pulls back to the support level, you can consider whether to continue to follow up.

As for today's intraday market, BTC's lower support is 95000 and its upper resistance is 98500; ETH's lower support is 3300 and its upper resistance is 3480. Investors need to pay close attention to the breakthrough of these key points in order to better grasp the market trends and investment opportunities.

Analysis from the perspective of market rhythm

The current market situation presents a more changeable situation, just like the trend of this painting door, with more violent fluctuations. The price went up yesterday and went down today, indicating that the long and short forces alternated frequently and quickly. After some tossing, it feels that the long forces that should have been out in the early stage have been almost cleared, and the market may usher in a relatively favorable opportunity for longs at this time. However, considering the overall uncertainty, it is still necessary to operate cautiously, so choose to find a suitable opportunity at midnight to participate in the way of light position and low long, hoping to make some price difference with the price rebound, and strictly use stop loss to control risks and avoid large losses.

Analysis from the perspective of key price

For Bitcoin, the two positions of 98000 and 96800 are very critical. They are like two lines of defense in the market. When the price falls to this area, it is often easy to get certain support, thereby triggering a rebound. Based on this judgment, we can rely on these two support levels to do low-long operations, and take the upper prices of 99500, 100700 and 102000 as the target of the rebound, waiting for the price to reach the target to take profits. Similarly, for Ethereum, 3500 and 3450 are important support areas. Long orders are placed at this position, aiming at the targets of 3600 and 3700. However, all operations should be based on light positions and stop losses should be set. After all, the market is unpredictable and you cannot go all out to gamble.

Analysis from the perspective of risk control

This kind of ups and downs in the market is like riding a roller coaster, full of risks. The situation of going up yesterday and down today can easily make investors who chase the rise and sell the fall suffer losses. And now considering going long is not without risk, so it is emphasized to participate in light positions and strictly bring stop losses. For Bitcoin, even if you think there may be a rebound near 98000 and 96800, in case of misjudgment, stop losses can prevent further losses. The same is true for Ethereum. When going long with 3500 and 3450 as the basis, stop losses are used to deal with possible reverse market conditions and control risks within an acceptable range. The target position is just an expectation, and whether it can be achieved depends on the actual changes in the market.

Regarding Bitcoin, from the daily candlestick chart, it has consecutively closed with 7 bullish candles, and the Bollinger Bands are showing an expanding state, with the upper band opening upwards, which creates space for price upward movement. The current price is running close to the upper band.

On the 4-hour level, a large bullish candle last night helped it firmly stay above the 100,000 mark, but after rising to 102,762 in the morning, it faced pressure and began to correct. The current price is around 101,600. From an indicator perspective, the MACD bullish momentum shows signs of contraction, the KDJ three lines are about to converge and form a death cross, and the RSI is also turning downwards, indicating a short-term need for a pullback, and the indicators urgently need repair. Looking at the hourly chart, the upper band is turning downwards, the MACD bearish momentum is beginning to expand, the KDJ death cross is moving downwards, and the RSI is also declining. Overall, while the operation strategy is bullish and looking to buy low, it is not advisable to chase the market directly; one should wait for a pullback before participating in the bullish trend.

Reviewing past operations, such as the short position on Bitcoin at 102,000 and the short position on Ethereum at 3,710, the profit situation was poor. Fortunately, timely position reduction and changing to a break-even stop loss avoided larger losses. Yesterday during the day, the short position at 99,500 also generated a small profit of a few hundred points before changing to a break-even stop loss, which helped avoid subsequent risks. This fully reflects the high risk of counter-trend positions, emphasizing the importance of risk control. Only by securing floating profits can one truly realize gains, while setting a break-even stop loss can cope with the changing market conditions.

As for today’s market, it is highly likely to show a sideways movement instead of a decline, with a potential for a fake-out. By tonight, there may be further upward movement. If a spike occurs, the probability of a spike on Wednesday night is relatively higher. Therefore, it is advisable to follow the trend and go long, and there is no consideration for short positions today. In terms of specific operations, Bitcoin can be bought low when it pulls back to the 101,000 and 100,000 positions, targeting 102,500, 104,000, and 106,000 sequentially.

For Ethereum, buying low can be considered when pulling back to the 3,630 and 3,580 positions, with upside targets of 3,700, 3,800, and 3,900.

The following are the key economic data and events to focus on for Tuesday, January 7, 2025:

• Pending: China's foreign exchange reserves situation for December

• 10:30: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang delivers a speech

• 15:00: The UK releases the Halifax adjusted house price index month-on-month for December

• 15:30: Switzerland releases the CPI month-on-month for December

• 15:45: France releases the preliminary CPI month-on-month for December

• 18:00: The Eurozone releases the preliminary CPI year-on-year for December, the preliminary CPI month-on-month for December, and the unemployment rate for November

• 21:30: The United States releases the trade balance for November

• 22:00: The United States releases the global supply chain pressure index for December

• 23:00: The United States releases the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for December and the JOLTs job openings for November

• Next day 02:00: The United States releases the winning yield for the 10-year Treasury auction as of January 8 and the bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year Treasury auction as of January 8

• Next day 05:30: The United States releases the API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 3

Analysis from the 25th of last month: the 103000 range has been reached. Friends who are looking to take larger short positions can refer to this. I shorted at 102200, with a target around 92000.

In the current market situation, our strategy is to first make preliminary adjustments based on the existing position allocation, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude amidst the unclear sector rotation dynamics, and refraining from making large-scale position changes easily. Once the trend of sector rotation in the market becomes clear, we will decisively invest over 50% of our positions into sectors with rotation potential, in order to grasp the market rhythm and obtain returns.

Looking back at the operations in the first half of this year, we first made precise layouts in the AI sector, selecting potential targets such as WLD, ARKM, and then keenly captured opportunities in the meme sector, successfully investing in PEPE, FLOKI, and others. Practice has proven that this method of flexibly adjusting positions based on sector rotation trends is effective; if managed well, achieving a 5 to 10 times growth in overall positions is not an unattainable goal. However, it is important to note that market conditions change rapidly, and the judgment of sector rotation needs to consider multiple factors, such as industry policies, market heat, and capital flow. Each investment decision must be made with caution, ensuring proper risk control, avoiding blind following of trends, and ensuring steady progress in the unpredictable market to achieve the preservation and appreciation of assets.

From another perspective, Bitcoin is currently around 102,000, and Ethereum is around 3,710. Given the rapid fluctuations in the market, a short position is chosen at this location.

Although Bitcoin currently shows no obvious signs of pressure, considering the missed opportunities for suitable long positions and low buy-in chances, a short position is attempted, with targets set at 101,000, 100,500, and 99,500. Ethereum, on the hourly chart, has already closed in the red, showing signs of pressure, so the short position targets are set at 3,650, 3,600, and 3,570.

However, caution is necessary in operations, adopting a light position strategy, and strictly setting stop-losses is essential. One must not hold onto positions to avoid significant risks from sudden market changes.

Today's Bitcoin market is surging! The bulls are strong, and a big positive line is like a rocket that helps the price take off straight, and the highest price actually touches the key line of 101250. Such a rise is really astonishing.

It's a pity to say that I wanted to take long orders after the retracement, but who could have expected that the market would not give me any chance at all. I originally planned to enter the market near 97700, but the lowest price only retreated to 98660 and then rose again, so I could only miss this wave of market.

Looking at the air force, I think they must be feeling very bitter at the moment. This sudden big positive line pulled up and hit them hard. According to Coinglass data, in the past just 1 hour, the air force was liquidated for 36.5886 million US dollars, and the long orders were liquidated for 5.3625 million US dollars. If we extend the time to 24 hours, the entire market is even more miserable, with more than 64,200 people liquidating their positions, of which the longs lost $65,727,900, and the shorts lost as much as $110 million. The market of Bitcoin changes rapidly, and one careless move can lead to a complete loss. This battlefield of the long-short game is full of thrills and excitement!

The cryptocurrency world is ever-changing. Which shocking black swan events do you remember?

In February 2014, the Mt. Gox incident shocked the world as the largest Bitcoin exchange was hacked, and 850,000 Bitcoins vanished without a trace. The price of Bitcoin plummeted, severely undermining market trust.

In September 2017, the cryptocurrency market fell into chaotic turmoil, with a market value that evaporated by 80% like a bubble. Investors experienced a fall from heaven to hell.

On March 12, 2020, the price of Ethereum collapsed, approaching the $80 mark. The market's unpredictability left people trembling, yet it did not extinguish the obsession with the potential of cryptocurrencies.

On May 19, 2021, the sound of 600,000 contract liquidations still lingers in our ears, as investors' dreams of wealth shattered all around. The shadow of risk loomed over the entire market.

In 2022, the Luna incident stirred up a storm in the decentralized finance sector, becoming a critical turning point in the market's fate. Shortly after, the FTX collapse caused a crisis of trust to spread like a plague, plunging the market into an endless winter.

Which of these darkest moments in the cryptocurrency world have you personally experienced?

BTC Market Analysis

Currently, BTC indicators are at a high level on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, but the daily level has gradually returned to a healthy range. From the intraday trend, it is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend. When the price pulls back to the support zone, it is a more suitable follow-up opportunity. Judging from the long-term trend, the expectation for an increase still exists and has not weakened. The key support level for the day is at 97500, while the important resistance level above is at 100000. Investors should closely monitor the price performance at these two key points to formulate corresponding trading strategies.

ETH Market Analysis

ETH also shows indicators above healthy levels on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, while the daily level is tending towards normal. The intraday market is expected to maintain an upward fluctuation pattern; if there is a pullback to the support zone, timely intervention can be considered. The intraday support level is at 3550, with a resistance level above at 3800. Investors need to pay close attention to ETH's price fluctuations within this support and resistance zone to seize trading opportunities, while also considering the overall market situation for comprehensive judgment and flexible adjustment of investment strategies.

1: Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown a positive trend. Bitcoin successfully broke through the key level of 99,000, and Ethereum has steadily remained above 3,600, with many altcoins also demonstrating strong momentum that is about to explode. Moreover, AI concept coins and meme coins have started to rise from the bottom, and even ordi sats are showing a weekly growth trend. In such a market situation, although there are considerable opportunities to make money overall, to accurately seize the opportunity and ensure that the coins in hand rise first and significantly, one must rely on professional technical analysis for advanced predictions, thereby making good investment arrangements to achieve greater returns. 2: In the current market environment, as it is difficult to determine exactly when the bull market will start to rotate comprehensively, we are using 20% of our funds for short-term sniper operations. In the current market, almost every day, there are low market cap coins that experience a 30% - 50% increase. We set stop-loss strategies to guard against risks that may arise from a decline in the market, while also setting a short-term profit target of 50%, thus creating a rather favorable risk-reward ratio. If we can accurately seize the opportunity in this bull market over the next 3 - 5 months, the profits gained will be sufficient to support several years of living expenses, thereby achieving phased financial goals. MEME coins, ACT, PNUT, NEIRO are examples of the lowest prices that have shown upward patterns.

2025 Investment Analysis

In 2025, investment should focus on key points and market rhythms. On January 6, the U.S. Congress certified Trump's election, and by January 20, he will be inaugurated. This period has high market uncertainty and significant short-selling risks, so cautious operation is advised.

From the overall market perspective, the first and last quarters are often good times for making profits, even in a bear market where fluctuations are relatively stable, with volatility mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters. Therefore, investment in 2025 can focus on the first and fourth quarters, especially the first 70 days.

Specifically, for contract trading before March 18, it is advisable to use a pullback buying strategy, avoiding blind chasing of highs, grasping the market rhythm, and aiming for ideal returns.

Bitcoin is above the healthy level at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, which shows that the market bulls are strong in the short term and the price is showing a more active trend. The return to the healthy level at the daily level indicates that the stability of the overall market has increased. It is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend during the day, and the support range of the callback is the key. When the price callbacks to around 97,000, if it can be effectively supported, you can consider continuing to follow up and buy, because the expectation of the big cycle has not weakened. The upper resistance level is 100,000

Ethereum is above the healthy level at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, which also shows the activity of the short-term market. The return to the healthy level at the daily level means that the overall market environment is good. It is expected to continue to rise after a slight consolidation during the day, and the callback support range is worth paying attention to. When the price callbacks to around 3,500, if it can get support, you can consider following up and buying, and the upper resistance level is 3,750

On January 20, $DYDX saw an upward trend with Trump, presenting potential opportunities for coins related to Trump officials. From past experiences, Trump's political movements often impact the related official coins. When Trump rises, these official coins may experience a surge. Although the market capitalization and recent seven-day increase data shown in the chart are outdated, we can focus on the overall trend of these types of coins.

At this time, we can prepare in advance by selecting some promising related official coins for a potential investment. When making selections, it is essential to consider the fundamentals of the coins, market demand, and relevant policy factors. By preparing in advance, we can wait for the profits brought by the rise in coin prices.

(SOL) has gradually shown stronger performance than the market recently. If the market stabilizes, SOL is likely to experience an explosion. Currently, the popularity of the SOL chain continues to rise, providing strong support for the coin price. Based on this, it is recommended that everyone continue to buy on dips and hold SOL.

From the market performance perspective, SOL's upward trend is evident, and under the premise of market stability, its potential should not be underestimated. The continuous development of the Solana ecosystem has attracted more and more projects and users, laying the foundation for the appreciation of SOL's value. With the ongoing popularity of the SOL chain, its price is expected to rise further.

In terms of operations, continuously buying on dips can lower costs and increase profit margins. When the market stabilizes, the upward trend of SOL may become more pronounced. We should grasp this trend, firmly hold SOL, and wait for its explosion.
For BGB long-term coins, one should hold firmly. Its pullback is a rare opportunity. When there are small declines, we can buy moderately; if there is a significant drop, it is an excellent opportunity that should not be missed. This strategy is based on confidence in its long-term value. BGB coins have unique advantages in the market and are expected to bring substantial returns over time. Its potential is worth exploring and seizing, so do not easily give up on your chips and treat every pullback as an opportunity to accumulate wealth.

$DOGE
Elon's payment project is about to launch, and Dogecoin is expected to become one of the payment options. This potential development is significant for Dogecoin. Once Dogecoin is incorporated into the payment system, its demand will increase substantially. Market expectations for Dogecoin are also continuously rising, with some opinions suggesting that Dogecoin could reach $1 this year. Against this backdrop, holding Dogecoin and buying in at the right time might be a good choice. With the advancement of the payment project, Dogecoin is likely to usher in a new wave of growth. $DOGE
#马斯克改名

After the opening of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq all rose, opening up 0.41%, 0.47% and 0.6% respectively. In terms of popular Chinese stocks, most stocks rose, among which MINISO (MNSO.N) rose by more than 7%, Li Auto (LI.O) rose by nearly 3%, Pinduoduo (PDD.O) and iQiyi (IQ.O) rose by about 1%. Rivian (RIVN.O) also opened up 3.66%, and the company's sales and delivery volumes in the fourth quarter were better than expected.

From the perspective of market performance, the upward momentum of US stocks is obvious, especially driven by technology stocks and Chinese stocks, the market sentiment is relatively optimistic. At the same time, the trend of Ethereum and Bitcoin has also injected a shot of strength into the market. Ethereum stood at $3,500, and Bitcoin also stood at $97,000 after the injection, which shows that the market's confidence in digital currencies is gradually recovering.

In this case, it is more likely that US stocks will rebound tonight. On the one hand, the upward trend of the market will continue to boost investor confidence, thereby attracting more funds to flow into the market; on the other hand, the company's good performance and positive market expectations will also provide support for stock prices. However, market uncertainties still exist, and investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and make decisions prudently.

Can Trump reach new heights after taking office? My personal view is that the short-term prospects for Bitcoin are not very optimistic. Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, Powell's hawkish remarks have directly suppressed expectations for rate cuts in 2025. Now the Federal Reserve's inflation target has been postponed to 2027, which means that after Trump takes office, inflation uncertainty will increase, and market risks will rise. The appreciation of the dollar and the trend of global currency contraction may put significant pressure on Bitcoin. The market has mostly priced in the dull period of Christmas and the end of the fiscal year. Influential figures in the industry also predict that Bitcoin may experience a sharp decline before and after Trump's inauguration. A rebound will come later, with a high probability of oscillating in the range of 115,000 to 86,000 in the short term. After March, Bitcoin will oscillate in the range of 50,000 to 70,000, with no significant breakthroughs. In the short term, Bitcoin will be volatile, but in the long term, it will either plummet or wait for a black swan event to break through. The risk of chasing gains now is very high, so staying calm and managing risk is the wise choice. Everyone is welcome to share your views.

The intraday strategy suggested a short position for Bitcoin, indicating a rebound to 97,500 for a short entry, with a stop set at 98,000. The highest rebound in the evening reached 97,440 before pulling back, providing an entry opportunity. For Ethereum, it is recommended to short at 3,450 and 3,500, with the highest rebound reaching 3,511 before retreating, also offering an opportunity to enter short positions. Currently, the short positions are at breakeven; friends who lack confidence can exit to secure their capital, while those with confidence can continue to hold and look for further declines.

In other words, the short strategies for Bitcoin and Ethereum provided intraday have both presented entry opportunities based on actual market conditions. However, currently, the short positions are only at breakeven, and everyone can decide based on their confidence level whether to close for breakeven or continue holding and waiting for further market movements.