And if the Fed had lowered the rate in July⁉️
The fall would have been MUCH stronger! Why?
On July 31, the Bank of Japan raised its rate for the second time by 0.25%. The first time was on March 19: S&P500 did not react at all, and $BTC fell by 9% from 68k to 61.5k.
If the Fed lowers the rate and the Bank of Japan raises it, then the yen strengthens and the dollar weakens! And the spread on both sides narrows on the amount of the rate in the carry trade (interest arbitrage in a currency pair between credit/deposit rates of banks).
Even more large investors would have withdrawn their capital from the American market, because everyone takes into account the inflation of both countries and the course of monetary policy.

If Japan does not raise the rate anymore, and the Fed does not lower it in September, then most likely a fall for this reason can be excluded.
So now you understand why both a Fed rate cut and a recession will still cause markets to cascade down at some point.

#MarketDownturn #BTC #BNB #Bitcoin #binance

$BTC The Fed meeting on 18.09 was given such importance! Influencers complain about the fall in referral commissions, this indicates a loss of interest or a low start. I suggest reducing the importance, since everything is already priced into the market:
Yesterday's fall played out the scenario with 0.5%.

Today's growth played out the scenario with 0.25%.

And tomorrow's volatility will simply collect liquidity, because for a market maker this is work.

Zones that I would like to note:

The daily candle, while it is dense, looks like a reversal and an influx of volume;
As soon as the price drops below 59.5k, it will look like a short squeeze and covering the imbalance.

Ideally, to continue, you need to close the day above 61.8k, and tomorrow go above 63.3k. Moreover, the glasses are full for sale, the movement should be accompanied by accumulation before each level.

S&P500 is laughing with its ATH of $1. In general, with such a mood at the Fed meeting, you can simply not lower the rate until January, there is enough faith in growth for oscillatory movements.

As they say, abstinence is the best protection.

#BTC #NOT #Bitcoin #STRK #BNB

All investors are already interested in the impending recession, while others sell cars before 09/18 to average #STRK 🏄🏼‍♀️ Cheaper or more expensive oil - a consequence of the crisis, we figure it out:
1. Saudi Arabia put the $ and recessionary US economy in a corner, having agreed with China to create a petroyuan.
2. In response, the US drops oil prices during the purchase, which is unprofitable for oil-producing countries, but it is profitable for the US to stock up on energy at a discount before the recession.
3. OPEC + cuts production, maintaining the price, which indicates an understanding of the decline in demand and the pace of development. In which case do you produce less? When no one can buy.
4. The oil price is at the bottom of the channel, and if it bounces up, then this is a hint of stabilization, and the crypto will grow afterwards.
5. The current growth of oil is facilitated by a hurricane and the weakening of $$$ before the Fed meeting.

Result: the dollar is weakened by countries refusing to settle in it. They can reduce rates aggressively, driving up the index with inflation and domestic demand. And, conversely, lend while it is cheap, and receive repayment of debts when the index has already grown.This means that centers of instability may arise around the world.

$BTC Here's a gorgeous chart of a human centipede! Will the support of 57.8k hold the promising growth? 🧸
Everything is the same old way: some pico coins shot up, altcoins fell by 3-5%, then Bob.

Day: MACD shows a decrease in volumes, RSI - a weakening buyer. EMA7 crosses EMA25, limiting growth. The value zone is 57.8k, the lower conjuncture is at 54.5k, where the growth began.

And let me remind you, the buyback from 52.5 was extremely rotten, leaving hope for a retest.

Week: MACD is steadily sinking down, volumes are decreasing, every 4th week strives to straighten out the descending formation. Will this week succeed? EMA from last week is at the intersection for correction.
On top of the glasses there are large sales for every thousand, in this state of affairs to go up - with rollbacks under pressure.
My conclusion is the same: a large player is gaining a position before 18.09, but most likely he will continue to gain it after, in the range.
#BTC #bitcoin #binance #TON #BNB

Should influencers be held responsible for the fact that you invested in #STRK #CHIA #PEPE #ATOM #APT etc. on their advice?

I noticed a sentiment: bloggers are scolded everywhere in chats and demanded that they be held responsible for reviews of cryptocurrencies, because they allegedly “plant” their audience in the minus or unload on them.

And what will happen to those who force their meme coins on SunPump etc.? 🔫
In my logic, you can’t blame someone for the fact that you yourself opened someone’s blog, saw with your own eyes a cluster of pixels on your phone, took an action based on this, and blamed someone else.
What does a person you don't know personally have to do with it, who also says "this is not financial advice, there are risks"?
Don't you think that if people who influence you are held accountable, then you will LESS often think with your own head and MORE OFTEN rely on the opinion of others?
Don't you think that this is a super sign that as soon as the whining dies down, an alt-season is possible, because the whiners have sold out and left the chats?
$TON $BTC

$BTC summary based on chats and sentiment 🏄🏼‍♀️
— People are set for longs before the Fed rate cut announcement, their targets are 61.2k, 65k and 80k.
— Everyone is expecting growth in the period from 09/18 to the elections, and then some kind of altseason.

But no one knows at what expense they will reach huge x's in alt.
— Everyone understands that meme coins are a scam like NFT in 2021, but they are bought, not base coins - they are "breakeven".
— Fear - 27/30 points does NOT coincide with greed on more accurate instruments.
— The outflow of money, the fall in demand and the price of oil, the rise of gold, the slowdown of major economies and the onset of a recession, the absurdity of the US presidential candidates are being ignored.
— Nvidia shares are growing, as if there is no longer an antitrust case in court against them. And SEC was so swaggering that now the case is against them too.

I'm trying to connect reality with market expectations here, while everyone believes in #STRK at $4. What about you?
If there is growth, then I will earn, and if there is a fall, I will earn, but I don't want to sit in rose-colored glasses.
Only in pink bows! 🎀
#bitcoin #BTC #NOT #PEPE

Leftists saw Harris's victory in the debate, so $BTC without strong movements!
I will note a detail - there is a gap #BTC from 54.5 to 54k on the CME, as well as gaps below the S&P500.
Up to 53.5k - liquidations of longs, also this level coincides with the lower conjuncture on the weekly TF. I assume that this is a good point for a long with a rapid buyout.
At the same time, there are fat liquidations of shorts at 58.3k, and daily technical indicators show the predominance and greed of the buyer.
US Consumer Price Index Report — Direct Correlation Noticed Lately

USD—Stock Market—BTC:
(Decorrelation in a Healthy Economy)
1. If the index falls, the dollar will start to strengthen, so we can expect a surge in growth first, and then a pullback.

2. If the data is worse than expected, the dollar will start to fall, everything will follow, then a rebound.

Volatility of previous days ~ 2k. So we can dance today. As a rule, before the announcement of the Fed rate, the markets freeze in anticipation, the market maker takes out stops and collects liquidity for further movement. Do you think the flat will continue?

#binance #Bitcoin #ETH #Ethereum

While $BTC is working out bullish divergences on the weekly chart. Please note:
Today there will be volatility due to the Trump-Harris debate, and tomorrow due to the consumer price index.
And although many, according to Polymarket polls, are confident that the topic of crypto will not be touched upon, in my logic, if Trump is more successful, the markets will react with a fall, as after the conference in July. The markets are afraid of changes in the presidential administration, FOMC, SEC. Harris is a guarantor of a soft recession for the Democrats.
On Wednesday, the US consumer price index for August will be published, and if it slows from 2.7% to 2.6%, then “many will consider this a positive” - WSJ.
Although 0.1 is like an error. We understand that we are being drawn these data that do not correspond to reality.
Ideally, don't enter the market at all today if you don't want to set stops.
#Bitcoin #binance #ETH #BTC #Ethereum

The US stock market has lost 8 TRILLION since July! There are outflows from the Ethereum ETF, companies are stopping trading this cryptocurrency.
But for now, $BTC is standing still:
— Weekly RSI and MACD show the strength of sellers. According to Bollinger, there is a feeling that the price is sticking to the lower envelope. But there is a bullish divergence! Will it consolidate? ⚔️
— Daily RSI and MACD are asking for a rebound upwards, possibly to the value zone and the level of 57.8k, this is a very optimistic scenario.
For today, we can only lay down the closure of the imbalance at 55.6k and again a decline before the opening of the stock market, because the S&P500 closed with a fat red candle.
Large volumes for buying on the glass at 52k, 51k, 50k, 49.5k.
Sales — 60k, 70k, as if they don’t see the price in this range yet.
Or maybe the shadow of August 5 is being absorbed by a denser candle?
On weekly horizontal volumes, market participants tend to:
- sell #BTC above 60.4k and below 53k;
- buy from 53k to 60k and already above 70k.
As part of the distribution, it makes sense to pull the price to 60k, this will be helped by sales at #ETH , the more it is sold now, the easier it will be for it to go up manipulatively.
The activation zone of all traders is at 67.7k,
which means people still have a “to the Moon” mood.
#Bitcoin #binance #TON

Let me remind you that the last time the altcoin revival was during the period when#BTCwas moving in ranges - 35-38k, 41-44k, 50-53k.
Despite yesterday's drawdown at $BTC , some noticed that today pluses for some coins began to appear in portfolios.
When #Bitcoin began to grow to 70k, the altcoin turned red and began to lose its few X's.
I have a rough guess that the rebounds to March prices will be at the same prices according to Bob.
I also assume that even if there is growth from current values, #ETH will still roll to $1785, and #BNB k will roll to $350. There were no strong buyouts yesterday, although imbalances can be closed (up to 55.6k). Monthly StochRSI shows a balance between sellers and buyers, well, while they are buying, the price will be supported.
#binance

A scary signal occurred at $BTC : this week a "DEATH CROSS" formed due to the intersection of moving averages (EMA).
The same cross was on the daily TF on August 5 🥲
S&P500 has already started to close its gap from 5460 to 5500, so yesterday everything rolled down after it.
They are silent about this and continue to lull "hold the alt, don't piss yourself." Everyone is waiting for a strait for averaging, but it is more profitable to push the price up so that you average when #BTC at 62k.
There is an internal intuition that unemployment data today may be bullish for USD, then all assets fall, but I assume that today there will be a carryover and an upward move over the weekend. Then the carryover will be repeated on Monday.
By the way, support for 57.8k is no longer working, so it will fly from above below this level.
Again, these are just my assumptions, write yours too, and I'll think about it ☕️
#binance #Bitcoin #Ethereum #NOT🔥🔥🔥

Be careful: S&P500 has the nearest gap 5469-5500. And we have already approached it. What will remain of $BTC and Alta❓
More than a TRILLION left the fund on bad data on the US economy, #BTC came out of the range (57.7-61.8k) and went down.
Honestly? It is not low enough, we expect at least 51k. After all, data on unemployment in the US will be released before Friday.
If, miraculously, unemployment decreases to 4-4.2%, then there may not be a Fed rate cut in September! This is good for growth.
Most likely, your alta will turn green in the near future, only to fall again to the same values ​​for August 5.
I am not considering an upward movement yet. Although you see how #BNB stands firm? Today ends farming #TON . Will they drain?
#binance #Bitcoin

New month, what to be prepared for? 🍓
August closed red, September opened with a breakout of support at 57.8k. This time $BTC was not bought out, it is moving weakly and uncertainly.
Volumes are leaving. Also this week EMAs are close to crossing for a fall. Daily StochRSI ran down, but we know how unreliable it is. S&P500 closed with a green stick up, which looks like an attempt to make a false breakout. In the short term, #BTC will catch up with it.

Uptrend: stay in the range 57.8 - 61.8, or go higher.

Downtrend: range 53.6 - 56.6.

Support zones - 56.6k, 51k. It would be good to see 44.4k, 38.5k, then a second wind might open.

Mt.Gox and Jump Trading still have reserves for market sales. Grey Scale is selling its ETFs, this is not even an outflow. Israel and Lebanon are on the verge of war, perhaps waiting for Trump's trial. Everyone is expecting a missile to free Durov, but farming #TON will end on September 4, what will users do?
09/18 — Fed rate decision and court decision on Trump's case with actress 🔺🔻
09/26 — Combat Hamster listing, if not postponed again.
09/29 — CZ release 🏋🏼
#binance #Bitcoin #BNB

$BTC Looking at the chart, you understand clearly: a position is being built up with large capital in the range of 57.8k to 61.8k. Another thing is important: is the seller or the buyer building up? 🧐
Considering the liquidity withdrawal and the formation of a "pocket" at 65k without volume on large timeframes, most likely, #BTC are selling.
Now there is a good purchase in the glass at 58k, so it is worth watching how Bitcoin will behave during the next fall. Since this level has been tested many times, it is possible that it will be broken through and go to the 51-56k zone.
Let's look at it differently: if the buyer does not have enough fuel to pull the price up, and each time at 57.8 he made a purchase?
Bitcoin is moving in an ascending channel and going beyond 62.8k will inspire traders to 66k, at least. How will the month close?
But still, S&P500 has a bunch of bearish divergences and a gap of $5460-5500. Buffett continues to sell. September is traditionally a red month. Nvidia reports and positive GDP do not drive the horses forward. The dollar is gradually growing before the rate cut.
That's how it is 🎀
#binance #ETH #Bitcoin #TON

📌 More and more often we will see unexpected falls without obvious reasons! Will the bull run $BTC end because of the recession?
Most of the indicators already point to a recession in the US since May. But the Dollar weakens for the first six months, inflating the market.
There are 2 possible scenarios: a soft landing and a hard one. What will happen to the crypto in each case?
— I will describe in the following posts 🫗 Part 1.
Recession is a decline in economic activity. Indicators:
1. GDP decline for 2 or more quarters in a row, there was a decline in April. New data - 08/29.
2. Inversion of the yield curve of long- and short-term Treasury bonds. More often they look at the chart between 10-year and 3-month ones.
3. Unemployment rises before a recession due to a reduction in production volumes and jobs. Above 5% — a clear crisis (late indicator).
4. Decline in oil/gas production due to lower production. Now the oil price is supported by the crisis in Libya and active purchases by the US. This is a leading indicator.

5. Income and credit status of the population.

6. Slowdown in sales of housing, cars.

1086862926#binance#DOGS#BTC#NOT🔥🔥🔥 #TON

$BTC What do we see on the chart? + end of the month!
News trend - soapy positive due to the Fed rate cut covers the escalation between Israel and Lebanon.
Positive expectations from the Nvidia report and US GDP for Q2. After - a fall is possible, because
positive - a stronger dollar - crypto down,
and negative - a weak dollar - a crisis in the markets.
Daily MACD opened weaker. Weekly will become more negative if #BTC goes below 63.4k.
The price has been running into the upper conjuncture and the channel border for the fourth day.
A return to 61.8k and to the value zone is likely, then we'll see if there will be a second run.
Moreover, SctochRSI is loaded to the maximum.
Went beyond the value zone this week.
The EMA cross is not so scary, but there is always a short squeeze before the intersection.
According to the glasses - a lot of sales from above, good purchases from 45 to 55k.
The month looks rotten! To change the trend to growth, it would be better to close above 65.6k, because now there were volumes, unlike the last hike to 70k at the end of July.
I think this is the intrigue that will keep us in good shape 🪭
#binance #NOT🔥🔥🔥 #TON #DOGS

WHERE ARE THE REFUGEE DEMONSTRATIONS IN SUPPORT OF DUROV? Although he is a citizen of an Arab Muslim country! Where is BLM? How is he worse?
This is the cross on the leftists. It is obvious: for 20 years they have been chaotically bringing in migrants, allowing them more than the locals, and now instead of closing borders, investigating cases, publishing in the media about criminals, under the guise of an artificial fight against crime, they are establishing control over everything where there is a sprout of freedom.
What is not allowed is prohibited.
You know: there are many countries with low crime and no restrictions in the media.
One of the main principles of leftism is the substitution of concepts and the formation of contradictory thinking.
Another thing is interesting, why are there no demonstrators?
From transgender people to refugees, because he is the only one who allows people to be free on the Internet.
He does not discriminate against everyone, just because some person is a criminal. For cryptocurrency, this is a signal that they will indulge in the creation of meme-tokens-scams, rob the rich, and stifle with regulations a useful blockchain that could bring real income in the hold.
#BTC #ETH #TON #NOT🔥🔥🔥 #DOGS

Let me be a little conspiracy theorist:
Have you noticed that old wallets with #ETH and #BTC have been actively waking up since July?
What if this indicates a global shakeout and monopolization of not only the mining sphere?
Old holders have been through so much, but in fact, there have been few changes in prices since 2020.
Considering inflation and declining purchasing power, they have been storing at a loss for 3 years!
On the other hand, it is stupid to hold before a global recession, but let's be honest: we look at the economy through the data that we are given. We cannot evaluate for ourselves - at the expense of which the problem will be solved and is it so terrible? Remember how they scared us at the beginning of 2023 with regulation and scam?
I do not mean that crypto will help during a recession.
In chats I see how some are waiting for other hamsters to sell their assets and then there will definitely be an altseason, while others are waiting to break even.
Everyone wants to wait.
But what will you do with -50% of the portfolio and the SEC's statement that the US economy is in recession, and that not all coins will survive the new regulations? 🧐
#binance #Ethereum #Bitcoin $BTC

Bloggers — the alt season will definitely be on the eve of the recession 🎊
Spot — has not yet reached breakeven, so we need to average, and X is just around the corner!
Everyone — will buy a one-room apartment for $1 million in Dubai! 🤑
$BTC — the second week in the 58-61k range, balancing between waiting and technical accumulation.
Alta — has not yet recovered the 35% lost in early August.
Meme tokens — not backed by anything, it's like NFT in 2021. Everyone will create them, everyone will invest in the remains of the loss from fundamental coins. A bunch of artists and rappers will appear who will buy this dummy to the delight of marketers. Justin Sun — already put $740 million somewhere, but no one pays attention and can't verify that TRX is 100500% secured.
SEC — won't open high-profile cases before the elections. But after 😈
#binance #Bitcoin #NOT🔥🔥🔥 🔥🔥🔥 #ETH #BTC

Trying copy trading on the hyped-up by gambling addicts exchange in the CIS community — Bingix, I had to deal with an inconvenient and flabby interface, which led to a loss 😅
In the copy trading section, I wanted to cancel take profit. As a result, after clicking the "cancel" button, the transaction was completely closed in the minus both on the derivative and on the copy. Moreover, a window with confirmation of the action did not pop up, although this is the algorithm embedded in the settings!
Why did this happen? Why did cancellation in the "copy" section lead to the closure of the position on futures as well? It is not clear.
The support team responded to this with "oh, well, yes, the interface is flawed, sorry."
— And what do you advise to do now with the loss of money due to an unclear interface and non-working functions?
They did not find an answer to this. They gave a voucher for paying the commission, which will no longer be useful. #binance #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #BNB