1The opening weekly line of September, on the naked K of the historical week, closed a perfect piercing bearish K line combination. From the historical band of Bitcoin, we can see that the entire market is divided into 4 stages, S1 accumulation, S2 expansion, S3 decline, and S4 smashing. The current price is in the decline stage of SEPA3, which is also a stagflation cycle. If the 5080 rule is followed, there is a 50% probability that the price will fall by 80% or an 80% probability that it will fall by 50%. Then it is obvious that the price has not reached such a retracement expectation. From the perspective of trading volume, the matching degree of trading data from the historical peak to today and the price is a certain amount of price deviation. The emergence of deviation will inevitably produce an economic bubble in the price of Bitcoin. Once the bubble is broken, the price will also usher in a wide range of retracements. From the perspective of positive correlation, if the price does not always execute the S4 smashing and washing action, the probability of directly continuing to rise is not high. At this stage, the positive factors are almost exhausted, but the price has not seen the expected effective breakthrough and is still in the S3 decline cycle. This can be explained by insufficient capital power. The probability of bearishness in the future market is greater.
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At the opening of the monthly line in September, the initial price of the bald K-line without an upper shadow line continued to go short following the inertia principle of the law of physics. The bald K-line did not receive support from the bulls, and the physical price trajectory was not strongly pulled in the small-level time period, and the capital of the bulls' counterattack was at a disadvantage. The corresponding indicators also continued to weaken.

#BTC走势分析 Hello brothers in May 14th Square, today I will analyze the market according to my personal opinion (no matter what ideas or plans you have in this community, you can post them at any time, as long as you can guarantee a certain degree of objectivity and effectiveness. The group is only for pure communication skills, taking the essence and discarding the dross, brothers work together to make progress.) $BTC
🎉🎉🎉🎉 My personal order opening plan will be placed in the last one. I hope brothers will put forward more opinions and ideas. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布
1Today, the short order liquidation strength is 140 million, and the price behavior has not reached the liquidation area, which leads to the incomplete execution of the upper orders. If such a position is touched, there is a high probability that a second transaction will occur, which will cause the price to fall.
2Based on the liquidation price, let's take a look at the profit rate. The current chart shows that most orders have been sold out, but some people are still holding them, and there are unfilled orders waiting to be filled. Such a waiting-for-filled order block has an attractive effect on the price. We can interpret it as there is still a certain probability that the price will rise and touch the order block OB, so that the short order transaction will cause the price to fall as expected.
3Looking at the market valuation and investment sentiment, now because of BlackRock's entry into the Middle East and a series of actions in Hong Kong, the investment plan distribution map of top capital such as a16z, Fidelity, and Sequoia in the crypto market has once again made the value of Bitcoin underestimated by the market
4Finally, let's take a look at the investment sentiment of retail investors, which is still mainly bullish
5During the rise of the Bitcoin chart, a double value gap of BPR/IMB1H appeared, and an attractive EQL high was formed above. I will build a long position in the IMB/1H range.

This is the first time I share my views in the Binance community. I hope that brothers with ideas can communicate with me! We don’t take orders, we just hope that someone can discuss together. The following is the sharing made before 11 o’clock. 1. First, let’s look at the price position of hunting from the perspective of liquidation intensity. The 72 million peak of retail investors liquidated at 62,000 can give us feedback that the price needs to return to a fair level. 2. From the perspective of the market valuation indicator MVRV, the price matches the market valuation. The No. 2 interval is the fair price of the market. Brothers should know this. If the price is overestimated by the market sentiment and expectations, it means that the value of the target itself has been overestimated, and then there is a need for correction. 3The correction also has the shadow of market manipulation. When we look at the strength through the Z score, we remove the dormant coins and pledged coins. The final circulation price that needs to be corrected has a large gap. That is to say, the market itself has a correction demand, but investors do not think that this price needs to be corrected. That is to say, most retail investors are still bullish, but the market needs to keep the price fair. There is a divergence point here.
4Institutional positions are still decreasing.
5Retail investor sentiment is still dominated by long orders, so the fate of retail investors must be liquidation. Therefore, today on the eve of CPI, we are mainly bearish.