Is 2025 a frenzied bull market?
Now, the consensus among most people is that the cryptocurrency market will experience a bull market in 2024 and 2025, but some believe: if everyone thinks the next two years will be a bull market, will the bull market still come?
First, the conclusion: Yes.
There is no secret to trading; broadly speaking, people have been trading since birth, constantly weighing choices and consequences. Some may find this a bit vague, but when it comes to financial trading, particularly in cryptocurrency trading, it becomes even simpler: seasons come and go, full moons must wane, and the sun rises and sets; these are the laws of nature.
The market's transition between bull and bear is similar; when the timeline is extended, these patterns are easy to grasp. A bull market isn't born in a day, nor does a bear market end in a day. Traders shouldn't pursue the absolute lowest point; such a point may only exist for a few seconds. For example, during the last bull market, not many managed to catch the low at 312 or 3800. Looking back now, buying in at 4000-6000 can be considered relatively low for the last bear market, which is normal.
Now, let's focus on: Is 2025 a bull market?
The general consensus is that 2025 will be a frenzied bull market, and I've also seen many voices of skepticism, such as: Everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, so will the bull come as everyone wishes? If everyone knows there will be a bull market in 2025, doesn't that mean everyone has already made money?
In response to this, I previously mentioned 'the unity of knowledge and action'; knowing is one thing, but being able to act on that knowledge is crucial. After all, ancient emperors had no personal matters, and today we have decentralized transparency, which everyone can see, so knowing isn't difficult; that's one point.
Secondly, I've mentioned that the current major cryptocurrency does not yet have the ability to dominate the market and rise against the trend in the entire financial trading landscape. Thus, the long-term trend of major cryptocurrencies is closely related to the macroeconomic environment. How do bulls come about? By injecting liquidity. How do they move? By raising interest rates. The previous known cycles of bull and bear markets have all followed this pattern. #山寨季将至？

The new week started with BTC breaking a record high in the morning. Every time a new high is reached, there are always people who worry about a pullback. This worry is more of a psychological effect. After all, it is still FOMO time in Asia. The real point to worry about is to wait until the US stock market opens in the evening to see the market changes. The current positive news is that after MSTR was included in the Nasdaq 100, institutional funds continued to increase their positions, which undoubtedly injected more confidence into the market and paved the way for BTC to continue to sing!
I hope that tonight will be a big performance of ETF buying, that is, don't smash BTC, the mood is still very good. Then the most important thing this week is the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on the 19th. According to the current market forecast, there is a probability of more than 95% to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which is good for the market. The market is likely to take this opportunity to go high. The previously strong cottages need to be re-focused. In the absence of new things to stimulate this round, the market is taking turns to hype. After AI, it may be necessary to hype strong cottages again, such as pepe, sol, punt, doge, etc. The meeting is nothing more than Powell's speech, which may stimulate the market to hype new emotions. Japan should not raise interest rates this month, so the next market should pay more attention to its spot cost. After all, there are only a few days before Christmas! Christmas is a risk, because the U.S. stock market will be closed at that time, and BTC without market makers may be difficult to say. If BTC falls, then the cottage may be ugly. Therefore, the position control that has been reminded, holding short-term bands, etc., if you want to maximize your profits, you should consider reducing your positions in the early 20th of Christmas. #BTC再创新高

Which altcoins can be held long-term despite negative news?
First of all, there's DOGE. It's just a matter of time before Dogecoin hits a new high. After Elon Musk takes office as the DOGE minister in January, he will definitely mention DOGE multiple times, so there is still room for growth. If you think the cost-performance ratio is not high, you might also consider Pepe and Floki.
The logic behind Pepe is that the community consensus behind it is quite strong. The most important aspect of a meme is the meme itself, and Pepe has that, which has established its position in the meme sector, still looking at a 5x increase.
Another one is Floki. This one also has community consensus, but Floki's advantage is that the project team is willing to spend money on marketing, such as billboards and appearances on CCTV news. These are all ways the project team spends money to drive traffic, which then reflects back to the coin. Holding Floki will continuously provide you with airdrops. The last one was a profit of 4% CAT for all FLOKI holders, and recently it was announced that another airdrop will be given, this time it's MONKY. So Floki truly understands the users' needs, allowing you to benefit from price increases and also providing free airdrops for you to hold onto! #超级央行周

Why do sharp declines often occur in a bull market?

This is mainly due to aggressive market cleaning.

In a bull market, retail investors tend to be more loyal and sticky. If they do not experience a sharp decline, it is difficult to wash them out of the market. Sometimes, a series of sharp declines is needed to drive most retail investors to sell and exit.

Some may ask, why is it necessary to clean out retail investors?

Isn't it good for everyone to profit together in the cryptocurrency space?

In reality, it is not. Without new capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market, if retail investors are not washed out, the main players will need to spend a lot of money when driving up the coin price.

Because during the price increase, once retail investors make a profit, they will choose to exit, which significantly increases the resistance faced by the main players, as if the main players are 'carrying the sedan chair' for the retail investors.

If retail investors are washed out through sharp declines and they sell off their positions, the main players can not only realize profits but also benefit from further driving up the coin price later on.

In summary, the reason why sharp declines are frequent in a bull market is the high stickiness of retail investors.

Therefore, if operational strategies are inappropriate during a bull market, the losses faced by retail investors may be even more severe.

#SUI再创新高