Although Bitcoin fell back to $94,000 on Tuesday, causing the second worst margin call in history, it broke through the $100,000 mark again earlier.
A quick overview of important events this week (12/08-12/14)
Bitcoin news: Ukraine will legalize in Q1 next year, Argentina plans to open free trading; 560,000 people lost $1.7 billion in a big crash, "the second worst in history"; Vancouver passed the "Bitcoin-friendly city" proposal.
Interest rate: The US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision in the early morning of the 19th of next week. The probability of a rate cut is currently over 85%. Focus will be on Japan's interest rate decision on the same day.
Trump: Trump's second son will give a speech at the Bitcoin Summit in Abu Dhabi; he rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange and was selected as Time Magazine's Person of the Year. He hopes that Bitcoin will "break through $150,000" early in his term; there is no plan to replace Fed Chairman Powell.
Musk: Becoming the first person in history with a net worth of over 400 billion US dollars.
CZ: He commented that "going all in on Bitcoin was a mistake" in 2014; after being released from prison, he focused on two things: Web3 education and investment.
United States: Goldman Sachs: If regulations change, consider non-cryptocurrency trading; Coinbase exposes the U.S. government's "crypto suffocation operation."
Taiwan: Taipei Blockchain Week.
China: Crypto fund advertisements appeared on the homepage of Alipay, and lawyers said it was too early to mine and issue coins; scholars pointed out four major problems in China's economy; someone who used Binance to "exchange currency in disguise" was sentenced to five years in prison.
Russia: Congress proposes to include Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
OpenAI: Live broadcast of new features for 12 consecutive days, released the full-blooded o1 model, reinforcement learning fine-tuning, video generation tool Sora, and officially integrated Apple Siri.
Microsoft: Board of Directors Rejects Investing in Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy: Spend another $2.1 billion to buy 21,550 bitcoins; expected to join the Nasdaq 100 Index on December 23.
Bridgewater Fund: Dalio: Invest in Bitcoin and gold and stay away from bonds to cope with the risk of sharp currency depreciation.
This week's trading market data changes
Sentiment and sectors
1. Fear and Greed Index
This week’s sentiment index fell from 79 (Greed) to 76 (Greed), remaining in the (Greed) to (Extreme Greed) range for the entire week.
2. Funding rate heat map
This week, the highest Bitcoin funding rate reached 28.68% and the lowest was 9.18%, and bullish sentiment remained strong.
The funding rate heat map shows the changing trends of funding rates for different cryptocurrencies, with colors ranging from green for zero rate to yellow for 50% positive rate, and black for negative rate; the white candlestick chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations, which contrasts with the funding rate.
3. Sector performance
According to Artemis data, the average increase of the blockchain sector this week was (-7.1%), among which Centralized Exchange, Oracle and RWA ranked the top three with (32.9%, 7.5% and 4.8%) respectively.
This week, the increases in Bitcoin and Ethereum were (-0.5% and -3.2%) respectively.
The three worst performing areas were Data Analytics (-19.5%), AI (-18.0%), and File Storage (-17.6%).
Market Liquidity
1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization and stablecoin supply
This week's total cryptocurrency market value data shows that it has retreated from $3.78 trillion and remained at $3.67 trillion. BTC accounts for 52.96% of the market, and ETH accounts for 12.54%.
The total supply of stablecoins, an important indicator of market health and liquidity, increased by $2.1 billion, or approximately 1.13%, from $186.26 billion to $188.36 billion this week.
2. Potential purchasing power within the exchange
Data shows that this week, exchange assets showed a net inflow trend, especially the large inflow of USDT after the US election. This phenomenon may be that investors are preparing for the upcoming market volatility, and the inflow of funds into exchanges may mean an increase in purchasing demand in the short term.
In addition, the highest single-day net capital inflow in December reached US$15.8 billion, and the highest single-day net capital inflow this week reached US$14.2 billion, surpassing the highest single-day net inflow of US$6.7 billion in the previous bull market, showing ample market liquidity.
3. Encryption Dynamics
The overall sentiment of the crypto market this week is bullish, with AVA, Pino, and Fartcoin leading the way with increases of +238%, +195%, and +173% respectively, and mainstream coins generally rising. According to Blockchaincenter data, the current altcoin seasonal index is 69 (down 18), indicating that the popularity of altcoins has retreated.
Bitcoin Technical Indicators
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Funds
Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $2.115 billion this week.
2. Bitcoin contract open interest
According to the data, Bitcoin contract holdings on exchanges rose rapidly this week, from US$61.19 billion to US$62.35 billion. The contract holdings are at a historical high, and at the same time, Bitcoin prices are also at a historical high.
3. Bitcoin historical monthly return rate
According to historical data, Bitcoin's return rate was -1.89% in week 50. This performance was lower than the historical weekly average return rate (-0.31%) and higher than the median (-1.96%), and was different from the return rate in the previous week, week 49 (+3.98%).
4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows that the current price of Bitcoin (US$100,000) is in the "consider fixed investment" range.
5. Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index
This week, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index shows that the demand for Bitcoin in the US market is still increasing. Before the big liquidation on December 10, the Coinbase Premium Index was once negative.
A positive premium differential could suggest that U.S. investors have greater buying power over the market than global investors.
6. Bitcoin net profit and loss performance
Bitcoin's realized net profit and loss indicator shows that market sentiment has retreated and the market structure has surpassed this year's high. Although the market has performed strongly in the short term, investors still need to be wary of potential correction risks, especially after a rapid rise, the market may see profit-taking.
7. Long-term Bitcoin holders
According to on-chain data, the net positions of long-term Bitcoin holders have declined significantly recently, and the red bar chart shows that selling pressure has gradually increased since October. Especially when the price of Bitcoin broke through new highs and approached US$100,000, the net position changes of long-term holders turned from positive to negative, indicating that some investors chose to take profits at high prices.
The current selling pressure has exceeded the peak in March this year. In early December, the price of Bitcoin tentatively exceeded the US$100,000 mark several times. However, the reduction of positions by long-term holders has exerted significant selling pressure on the market. While market sentiment remains positive, the behavior of short-term holders (STH) needs to be closely watched and whether the market can absorb the additional supply pressure.
8. Bitcoin on-chain purchasing power
According to on-chain data, Bitcoin’s long- and short-term holder data this week shows that as the price rises, the positions of short-term holders (red line) increase significantly, while the positions of long-term holders (blue line) continue to decrease. , especially when the price of Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $100,000 mark in early December.
This trend reflects the phenomenon of funds flowing from long-term investors to short-term speculators. The increase in the proportion of short-term holders indicates that the market risk appetite has increased, but it also brings the possibility of increased volatility risk. The reduction of long-term holders shows that there has been an increase in high-level profit-taking behavior. It is necessary to pay attention to whether short-term funds can effectively support market prices and maintain the current upward trend.
9. Short-term on-chain cost benchmark band
This week, the Bitcoin short-term on-chain cost benchmark band shows that the price is close to the upper track (red line) of $117,700, reflecting the high market sentiment and the increased willingness of short-term investors to make profits. The realized price (blue line) for long-term holders is $82,900.
Important technical indicators of Ethereum
1. Ethereum Spot ETF
Ethereum ETF funds saw net inflows of approximately $712.7 million this week.
2. DeFi market total locked value (TVL)
Data this week shows that the total locked value of the DeFi market has increased from US$136.136 billion to US$133.89 billion last week.
