With the addition of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, weekends are likely to become the main battleground for those original players. Because only during the weekends, those ETF institutions are not present, so they will deliberately raise or suppress prices at this time. They will intentionally manipulate prices at such times, so I believe the rise this weekend must be driven by those big whales. To suppress the expectations of short-sellers, so right now I am bearish in the short term. I think the rise this weekend is a typical short squeeze. Many people's liquidation price is around 80,000. After these short orders are exhausted, it will definitely drop. Of course, there are many factors in the market, such as CPI and various other factors. So everyone should operate cautiously. Also, everyone must be wary of Dogecoin. This thing is an apocalypse vehicle. But I don't know how far it will go. $BTC
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Let me tell you something, that is, seven months before Bitcoin came out, Satoshi Nakamoto himself mined 1.1 million Bitcoins. Now they are worth 88 billion dollars. I ask everyone if you are afraid, if Satoshi's address were to move. There would definitely be a waterfall, definitely a waterfall. $BTC
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The cryptocurrency world is like a casino; everyone is actually here to gamble, everyone is here to profit from price differences, and everyone is here to speculate. Everyone take care! I still recommend that aside from Bitcoin, other altcoins and similar ones should be avoided. Especially some newly emerged popular coins in trending sectors, I suggest everyone stay away from them. Altcoins should generally be viewed as investment schemes. $BTC
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I hereby declare to everyone that my view on cycles is problematic. I now believe that with the addition of ETFs, the original market makers can no longer fully control the market; these ETF institutions pose a huge challenge and constraint to the market makers. The biggest application of Bitcoin is to break through foreign exchange controls and launder money. The addition of US ETFs essentially endorses Bitcoin. There are definitely market makers in Bitcoin. However, with the existence of ETFs, there is competition between the market makers and these ETF institutions. Moreover, once these ETF institutions buy in, they will not sell in the short term; they will hold for the long term. Therefore, this imposes certain constraints on the market makers. I used to think that it would take about a year and a half for a cycle to change in a market with high retail participation, roughly a year and a half. With the addition of ETFs, everything has changed. The original market makers are facing tremendous competition and constraints. The key is that Bitcoin ETF institutions hold for the long term; if it drops, they will buy, and they have ample funds. Thus, market makers are also less likely to crash the market. At this stage, I am looking at fluctuations. However, over the weekend, I don't know who took the opportunity to pump it up. Moreover, I personally believe that next week's CPI might be favorable due to falling oil prices. This could very well lead to another rise. A rate cut in December is also very likely. Because the Federal Reserve's initial expectation was three rate cuts. So this time, it's really hard to say; it really might push very high. I suggest everyone not to short it. Buy on dips. As for Bitcoin, it will certainly have lows and highs in the future. So I advise everyone to be patient and wait; if you are hesitant to jump in now, you can also wait for some low points to buy in courageously.

In the case of price breakthroughs and increased trading volume, the market usually experiences some fluctuation adjustment to digest the sell orders for profits at high levels. Therefore, while the current upward signal may indicate continued strength, it is also important to pay attention to the risks of trading volume and price pullbacks. $BTC
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Many people believe that the addition of a Bitcoin spot ETF will lead to a continuous surge in prices. Personally, I think that the ETF reduces volatility. The ETF will indeed reduce the magnitude of Bitcoin's volatility. The ETF will bring about a very lasting increase. However, this increase will definitely not be as rapid as in the past. Therefore, the probability of moving in a range is very high in the future. If it falls, it will also fall in a range. If it rises, it will rise slowly in a range. I do not believe there will be significant volatility. Currently, at the time when the Bitcoin spot ETF has just passed this year, there will indeed be a surge because suddenly $50 to $100 billion has poured in, which has indeed caused a spike. But after the spike, there will certainly be a drop. As more and more money flows into the ETF, I personally believe that the ETF will gradually stabilize. The situations of sharp rises and falls will decrease. But there is a saying: after great heat, there must be great cold. It has risen sharply since February and has been fluctuating for several months, which may have digested a large portion already. I think the possibility of continued fluctuation will increase. After all, Bitcoin is benchmarked against gold, which currently has a market value of $17 trillion, while Bitcoin has a market value of $1.5 trillion. So there is still a gap, still a tenfold difference. Bitcoin still has room for growth. But from the current stage, I still see it as bearish, especially on Monday; I am bearish for next week. The CPI data shows that in the U.S., oil prices are falling, meaning that the oil price in October is lower than in September. In the U.S., which is largely a car-centric industry, almost everywhere requires driving. Oil prices are highly correlated with CPI data. Therefore, the CPI data for October, which will be released in November, is likely not to be very high, which usually means it may continue to decline, favorable for interest rate cuts. This is not good news for bears.

I am not optimistic about a super market, I am not optimistic about a one-sided rise, continuous two waves of one-sided market. It is the weekend now, and weekends generally do not have much fluctuation. As I recall, there have only been two fluctuations on weekends this year, one was a sharp drop, which was a continuous drop from Friday through the weekend. The other was this time, which has been a continuous surge from Friday through the weekend for two days. After the last sharp drop, it started to rise on Monday, so this time it's a surge from Friday through the weekend for two days. Does this mean next Monday will drop? Personally, I believe that Bitcoin's market value is very large right now. Many people think it will be like the beginning of 2021, believing this is just the start, but I think the market value is too large now. I do not believe it will shoot up directly. As prices rise, the profit-taking amounts will also become increasingly exaggerated. Their motivation to sell will become stronger. Think about those who are making profits, especially those who have held for a long time. There is a company that has been continuously buying Bitcoin since 2019, and they have made over 10 billion dollars in floating profits. It is the weekend now. Weekend rally. Regardless of whether you want to sell or buy, the best time is actually from Monday to Friday. Because the liquidity and trading volume from Monday to Friday will be larger, if you want to buy, on Monday and Friday you won’t be driving the price up too high, increasing your costs. If you want to sell, you won’t be driving the price down too low, selling for less money. So weekend fluctuations are not common. I think Monday is likely to drop.

Regardless of bulls or bears, no market can escape cyclical corrections. Next, we can closely monitor macro data and the flow of ETF funds, especially interest rate and CPI data, as these factors may have a more direct impact on future trends. $BTC
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Currently, many people believe that Bitcoin has experienced a contraction in volatility over the past few months. Then, it reached a peak of 77,000. Now, many people believe this has indicated a direction, and the market has chosen a path, breaking upwards, leading to vast possibilities ahead. Many are actually focusing on this breakout. The most important thing now is whether ETFs will see a significant influx of large capital buying in. This is currently the most crucial factor; no one knows, not even the ETF funds themselves, how much Bitcoin their clients will purchase or at what price. If the U.S. stops cutting interest rates or if next Wednesday's CPI data is not favorable, it could have a huge impact. The inflow of funds has now approached 70 billion. I believe the likelihood of Bitcoin continuing a trend of volatility is greater. As the price continues to rise, there will always be individuals choosing to take profits. After making money, they might wait for Bitcoin to drop again, and then possibly buy back in. Therefore, I think Bitcoin will continue to experience the kind of ups and downs seen in the past few months; there won't be another major upward surge, nor will there be deep pits like those seen on 3/12 or 5/19.

When people are losing money, they are more inclined to take a gamble to recover their losses. When people are making a profit, they are more inclined to secure their gains, but after making a profit, they do not treat that profit as real money; they will use their winnings in a more aggressive way to reinvest. $BTC
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cz is also reminding of the risks, don't be greedy $BTC

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Back in 2021, many people said, 'Please, dear God, give me another chance to buy more than 10,000 Bitcoin. I will definitely sell my house and invest everything.' And then God really gave them the chance. In 2022, it dropped to 15,000. Did they sell their houses and invest?

That year, Dogecoin also reached its peak of 0.74 in 2021. Some people said, 'If God gives me another chance to buy Dogecoin below 0.1, I will sell my house and invest everything.' Did those people sell their houses and invest? $BTC
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Is there really one dominant player in Bitcoin? Probably not. The Bitcoin market is currently divided into four types of players. One type is the whales. They hold a large amount of Bitcoin that can influence prices in the short term. Another type is exchanges, which are said to be able to manipulate the market with data; I don't know what data manipulation means. Then there are the ETF institutions on Wall Street. The last type is miners. The four types of players are miners, institutions, exchanges, and whales. Currently, institutions are still buying. Miners have already mined a large amount of Bitcoin, and their influence is much weaker than before. The amount of Bitcoin in exchanges has been continuously hitting new lows, as it has all been bought by ETFs. Now only the whales are left. However, the financial power of the whales is not as strong as that of the ETFs; whales can only influence prices in the short term at most. If ETFs come in and buy directly, and if they sell off, they can't really drive the price down significantly. Therefore, whether ETFs continue to buy is the most important factor in determining prices. Retail investors currently have significant divisions. There is a big difference between veteran investors and new investors; veteran investors are mostly shorting the market. New investors are still looking at 100,000, anticipating a super market. $BTC
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This time it really might have peaked. In fact, aside from the crash in July three months ago, which only dropped by about 30%. Bitcoin should have a short bear market. The funding rate for Bitcoin on the Sesame Open Door platform has already become absurdly negative. So I think this time it might really be the top. As for my judgment on the cycle, the result will come out this month; the price has already risen to this level, anyway. If my previous judgment on the top cycle is correct, then this should be the stage top. It has really been rising for almost two years. There hasn't been any significant drop in these two years. In July, it dropped to a low of 48,800. And there was several months of volatility, constantly fluctuating downwards. In fact, the drop hasn't been that scary; Bitcoin hasn't scared anyone for two years. $BTC
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My short positions are still held. $BTC
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I feel that the current market is the old investors being afraid, and the new investors being excited. The older investors become more pessimistic as the prices rise, while the new investors become more optimistic as the prices rise. $BTC
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Whether it's trading cryptocurrencies or stocks. When faced with different opinions from various people, one should maintain a gentle attitude, because no one can know all the information. Everyone is actually making a one-sided judgment. Therefore, those who are gentle in trading tend to have a higher winning rate, as gentle people can accommodate differing opinions. They are able to view problems from multiple angles, making it less likely for them to get stuck in stubborn thinking or become overly confident. So, when trading, you must be a gentle person; speaking too harshly or having too strong an aggressive attitude is harmful to trading.

With the addition of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the volatility of Bitcoin will become smaller. It is highly unlikely that Bitcoin will experience a drop of 75% again. This is due to the inflow of ETF funds and support. Therefore, the largest volatility for Bitcoin in the future may be a drop of 50%, at most 30% to 50%.

Bitcoin currently has a possibility of a phased correction, as it has risen for two consecutive years and has rapidly increased in the last month, making the risk of a short-term correction relatively high. Additionally, the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates in December, which could affect market liquidity expectations. Furthermore, some investors may choose to take profits at the current price level, increasing the likelihood of exacerbated market volatility in the short term.

Overall, the likelihood of a phased correction in the short term is greater. The current positive factors for Bitcoin are being realized, and the probability of a decline is higher.

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Bitcoin has frequently topped the trending searches many times this year, and it was reported by CCTV media the day before yesterday, which is actually a signal of a peak. $BTC
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Sell when it's about high, buy when it's about low. Trading is that simple. $BTC
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