Throughout the history of cryptocurrencies we have only had 2 altseasons and I have only experienced one, but analyzing their behavior and knowing that the markets are very cyclical and similar, we are going to analyze when it is possible that we see an altseason. Here we have in red the dominance of $BTC
Against all the rest of the currencies, if we have very high values ​​or percentages this means that the risk tolerance is low, and then all the capital moves to increasingly safer assets such as #btc or $ETH
But when it loses dominance, we are going to see the opposite and what is called altseason since profits are going to be taken in bitcoin to invest them in something more risky; Before 2017 we had very few assets so bitcoin dominance was between 95% and 75%, there was only ETH, XRP, Litecoin and I think Ada, and the dominance fell into a free fall since everyone in btc was in profits, because it was breaking historical highs and something very similar is going to have to happen to have an altseason in these months.
Then in 2020 we had very similar movements, since it was not until btc consolidated 2 or 3 weekly closes above ATH that the dominance began to fall.

Something to keep in mind is that these very parabolic movements that make people rich last very little between 2 and 4 months, and 80% of the movement that they will have from their minimum to their new cycle maximum is generated.
So the moment we start an altseason we will have upward movements of 3-5% at $BTC and altcoins will rise 15-20% in a day.

We are going to analyze the altseason since seasonally we have entered that transition phase, and although we have not yet entered that explosive phase, and we will not lose the 50k, although perhaps we still see a final downward blow and we will also analyze to what points we can fall in daily candles and perhaps in the one-hour candle if we go deeper one day this week. Although leaving aside the short term and looking more at the long term, we have all the altcoins at long-term bottoms and many of them are already breaking bearish structures, we also have the dominance of $BTC at 3-year highs, and also during this quarter we have the stage of greatest risk since they are the months with the best returns and people will increasingly risk their money at #altcoins , so we are in the best moment of the last 4 years to pay attention to cryptocurrencies and see possible parabolic movements that last a few weeks, so in today's posts we will see when the altseason can start, which coins are better returns and as soon as we will see movements in $BTC
Or in $ETH

Personally, I think that information and all markets are controlled and manipulated by very few families, perhaps less than 20, and they are the ones who give us the narratives in the short term, whether it be data or wars, through their media, and of course there are a handful of other people, such as politicians, who also take advantage of having privileged information.

But if we go a little outside the box, for example, here I almost never share news or market movements in the newspaper, but I want to show how these families, politicians or institutions think and operate.

Having explained this, here we have the accumulation graph of $BTC
Between 100 and 1,000 #bitcoins (it is grouped by entities and this graph costs 14,000$ Mexican pesos) so if you see other graphs that are not grouped by entities it will be a totally different graph, but most of this money is from institutions. In the second graph we see how it is that we have not seen such a vertical accumulation for years, but most will wonder why is that if so much money is entering the market the price of assets like #btc or $ETH does not rise, the answer is that we have a lot of bearish pressure from retail in shorts between the areas of 68 and 74 and if we close those shorts it will generate a rise or also known as shortsquiz which is that when there are so many liquidations in those areas it automatically generates that the money enters the market but now in positions and in a momentum of rise which can generate a daily candle of 10% or even more, and this has already happened on some occasions in the past, for example a year ago we had a movement like this when breaking an accumulation zone followed by a bullish movement.

Many people have the idea of ​​risking a lot of money, either because of little capital or because they don't invest too much time, and the truth is that patience is what pays off the most, because I've already been through those situations where I thought about risking a lot or when I had it I would be more conservative... But the reality is that in most cases this goes wrong, normally everything is lost and you have to start over.
So if you are in a hurry to have money and also have little experience, the truth is not to discourage you but this is the most volatile and risky market that exists (regulated), pretend that you are in the sea and you are a fish, there are sharks out there and they are all trying to get money and when fighting against the best, normally the money goes to those who have more patience. So I encourage you not to lose hope and because of some setback before the bull run, don't get out of the market and give up everything.

Likewise, the less experience you have, you should always have a longer-term mentality and a strategy in which you are not afraid of losing in days or weeks, so you should focus on at least making an X2 or an X3 and see it with a horizon at the end of 2025, and so the next time you have a bull market you can have everything better studied and make an X20 or much more during a cycle.

We currently have a market sentiment that feels sad or bad, in which even I, who am the most convinced person of the bull market, begin to think that the dates are already becoming too slow.
But here with the fall at the beginning of this month we return to the territory of those who get scared and leave the market and also in a smoothed average of 30 days (smoothed means that the average is taken and therefore over a longer period they tend to be much more specific) and here we see how we are in the greatest capitulation since the cycle lows.

But at this point we must see it as something positive, since when we are at historical highs and at the ceilings of this cycle they will see that there will not be a day of good news, and that is when they will distribute, since smart money is better off keeping prices in fear and they continue accumulating.

So, I really think that ETFs and all the institutions are playing to hold the market as long as possible, since in many large currencies we are going to see huge returns since they have the support of institutions. And it will probably happen in a couple of months, and when everyone wants to enter the market, they will be distributing.

Here in this blog I will also mention when I think they are good exit points.

Over the last few days of the decline I have noticed a pattern that is repeating itself a lot and I also saw it in YouTube posts and on X. Which is that the largest liquidations and lowest prices are generated in the first week of each month since July.
So based on my analysis and due to the stage of the cycle in which in other years the bull run should have started 2 or 3 days ago, I am thinking that we could be facing a last lateral week between 58 and 65 depending on the economic news, for example today we had this rebound due to the very good data on US employment, but if throughout this weekend and next week we see some news about war or diseases, Chinese economic data or the income report of one of the Magnificent 7 we could see a daily candle up to 58 and then return to the range.

So in my opinion and experience I see less than 10% probability that we won’t see a rally towards 70k in the third week of October, and since a lot of the retail market has liquidity from having sold in August or September it’s possible that they will stay out of the market and we will start an upward movement that will take us to historical highs at $BTC
And that probably once we get there we will see a distribution of about 2 weeks while the money moves to more volatile assets like $ETH o $SOL
. Personally, I have a position of about $7,000 and I leveraged 10x on ETH because I think it could be the first one that can explode without taking a big risk since I see it unlikely that we will lose the 2,100 levels even if bitcoin falls below 58 in some flash.

Putting together the analysis I posted yesterday with this graph of bitcoin's performance after the halving #btc , it will be normal that we do not have deep corrections in the following weeks, but we have already touched the lowest points at 52k, so if you are wondering if today, October 1, is a good time to buy cryptocurrencies, my clearest answer is yes, because statistically speaking and by cycles, we are in the last days before a bullish movement.
But still if you have doubts, my best recommendation is that you buy high-cap cryptos such as $ETH
$BNB
$SOL
Since these will tend to rise faster in these first 2-4 months of rise. Since they are the safest, money will migrate from BTC to these and then to their L2 or more speculative cryptos.
So it doesn't matter if you don't buy at the minimum of the movement, if you're not trading, because normally nobody buys at the lows or sells at the top, unless they have confidential information or have been operating markets for decades.

If we want to know if we are in a good comparison zone, whether at #bitcoin or in alts, something important to take into account is that this market is cyclical, so since there is a halving in btc, which is the main asset, (although this also exists in other currencies).
As we can see in this graph, from the time the cycle lows are touched to the highs, more or less 1,050 days pass, and although sometimes they will not coincide on each date, it is a very good estimate since they tend to adjust, for example if this month we were to remain flat, in the next month to reach the relationship with previous cycles we would have a rise twice as strong and fast. So even though bitcoin hit ath before the halving this time, it adjusted downwards these months to be related to the previous two cycles, so within 20 days we should be at much higher levels in price of $BTC
And clearly it will be followed in price by alts like $ETH
And, which is based on the ETH ecosystem $PEPE

Currently everyone is thinking about when to enter the market, since in this last week they have probably seen articles that the end of the year is usually bullish or about the cycles of b$BTC , when clearly 2 or 3 weeks ago everyone was bearish and that we were going to 40 or 30 at #bitcoin .
And it really was a very sharp rebound from 50 to 65 and people, even with all the graphs or analysis that I have uploaded, continue to think that we will touch the ceiling of the bearish trend of the last 7 months and go down again.
But they are not really taking into account that btc is in a major bullish trend and this was only a wave 4 within 7-8 months of a movement correction.
So if you don't know if you should enter or you are a novice, the first thing you should consider is in what time frame you want to get returns on your investment.
But I personally and with my experience really start to think; the US elections are in 30 days, can you imagine Khamala H, campaigning with her American market collapsing? I really can't, so we can be sure that the next month is not going to be bearish and also historically it is the best month for the stock market and cryptocurrencies.
This also coincides with a drop in rates, with bitcoin at less than 15% of ath, with #altcoins at long-term lows, with the best performance of the largest economy in the world (China) since 2008 and with a DXY that tomorrow will close monthly at its lowest in more than a year.
So if you have doubts about whether it is a good time to buy cryptocurrencies, I personally think it will be the best time in years, until the next market bottom in 2 years.
(If you don't want to risk it and put it in gems, which I clearly don't recommend, allocate some of your liquidity to high-cap coins like )$ETH
$BNB
Since they are stable coins and at very good buying points with a view to 2 weeks or 4 months, since altcoins with higher capitalization will take off

In a graphics application there is this metric from Cowen, an analyst who is very good at predicting market ceilings.
And like all my content in these weeks, I have been warning that we will possibly start the bull run in this month of October and we will break historical highs, what we should consider after that is what price we will end up at. The truth is I am not going to explain the parameters because they are averages, square roots and I try to make my content as understandable as possible; but one thing it has is that it is very accurate.
And this metric at the red top if the bull run were to start today would mean that we are going to touch the top at 138k$BTC dollars, and if we look at the past it has been very close, although the truth is that I expect a break and an altseason when we reach 100k$BTC
Since it is an important psychological level and we will probably generate an accumulation there.

Let's look at today's most important announcements and also the direction of the market.

Something to highlight is the daily operations that the $SUI currency is having, since they are more than 800 million dollars

This morning we saw everything that the Chinese economy is doing to remain the strongest, encouraging discretionary spending

In the entries of the ETFs we had
4.6 million dollars in $BTC
792k thousand dollars in $ETH

And in relation to the direction of the market we are seeing a consolidation and a possible wave E for this price range and it is very likely that if it does not weaken at this time we will see a lateral market until the beginning of September; so then we will see a break of the 65k and thus we will begin to see how #btc will break highs in October and the alts come out of floors

Here we have the fourth quarter of the year of the halving of $BTC and we see that clearly the most parabolic movements happen in these months of October, November and December.
Something important that happens in this quarter is the American elections that lead to a large printing of money for budgets, laws and companies, and all this new money ends up in the markets the following month, and in fact almost without exception every year we have December as the strongest economic month since it is called the Christmas rally because in general it is the month in which the whole world has the most money and consequently people spend it.
So let's stay alert, because there is one week left to start it.

Something to keep in mind in Bitcoin is the number of short positions we have in the 71k-74k area, since it is very possible that in 2 or 3 weeks we will be attacking these areas and once all these positions are liquidated, something very important is that when a short position is closed, the market automatically opens a long position and that projects a much greater rise.

This year very important events have happened for $BTC ,$ETH and in the coming weeks $SOL , in which we saw the etf's, we also had the halving of #bitcoin and here we have this graph that shows us that we are already 10.77% of the cycle since the halving, and taking into account the 2 previous halvings (we will not take into account the first one since bitcoin was really very volatile and any large capital caused those increases) but in the 2 previous ones around these dates or 11% progress it is clearly seen that we were starting a rise in bitcoin, and the important thing here is the rise that we are going to have in assets with lower capitalization, since once we break ATH and everyone is positive in bitcoin we will see how money will start to flow to increasingly volatile assets.

About 2 weeks ago I posted what would be the most painful move in the spot and futures market. And I asked if it would be a bigger drop or if people who sold near the lows would be left out of the market. And I think we could be in this, and although technically with technical analysis, we should be in a week of decline, I personally have already closed my shorts and put myself in neutral because the truth is that with the economic news and with only a few days to go before the most bullish month of the markets begins, I prefer not to risk so much of my capital.

And one thing is clear, and that is that after being in decline for more than 7 months, and with so many people waiting to buy at levels below 55k at $BTC
It may be that the scenario that causes the most pain is that we break 65k and do not return to such low price levels, and that altcoins begin to explode as they did for example $SUI , but it is clear that it is no longer time to buy this one. If not, focus on the structures and see which alts can explode in the next few days.

In my opinion, I think that once we break 65,100$ with force, we will start the bull run.

We have most indicators for a somewhat bearish week that will take us to at least 60k before starting the bull run; but the macroeconomic news and data are being so positive that we have not lost the 62 at $BTC and they are starting to become support.

In China, which is the most important economy in the world, interest rates were reduced by 50 points and they are also helping to pay off their mortgages by 5 trillion dollars.

And the most positive thing about this is that it helps the global economy, and there is more appetite for risk so that people are increasingly entering cryptocurrencies.

So in my opinion I think that this cycle is going to fit perfectly so that in the next August-September, we reach the peak of this cycle and a resection is announced; Because the economy is not having good data and people are more indebted than ever since credit card debt is at historic highs, but if governments want a bull market I think that in the next 10 months we will be on the rise at $BTC $ETH and in the end with all the low caps

Let's look at the altseason index.
As its name indicates, when we are in the green zone, we have a high probability and good prices in altcoins.
And this graph is smoothed on a 90-day average, which means that it is not manipulable and very precise in the long term, and as we see here, it does not usually stay in this green range for long, so putting this graph together with the one we saw yesterday, a rebound in high-cap altcoins is very possible for the month of November and the start of an altseason in January.

Here we have a very important graph on bitcoin dominance to know when an altseason can start, which is 5-6 weeks after this rate cut, meaning that by November 10th we might see bitcoin dominance start to fall, possibly from 60% to 40%, this makes everyone go to riskier assets and also makes more and more liquidity start to enter the market.
So we have to wait, it's a small bullish reaction until Bitcoin breaks historical highs and then they go back up until altcoins have 60% of the market.

So I would expect bitcoin not to lose too much dominance until next year, and I think that at the beginning of next year we could see the first part of the altseason.

Analyzing the last rate cut, which is shown in red in this graph, we see that we have a very similar behavior at $BTC , since in 2019 rates also began to be lowered and in general we came from a great rise and then a reaccumulation of months, in which in February~March 20 we were going to break that bearish structure to start a bull market, so taking into account that now we will not have that great fall due to a global crisis, it is very possible that we will start an upward movement in the coming weeks.

The last time interest rates were reduced, bitcoin dominance peaked 5-6 weeks later, which clearly leads to an altseason and also significant losses in the strength of the dollar, allowing alts to exit long-term bottom zones as they already did by breaking bearish structures $FTM $SUI and very few others. Although in the market we are still very afraid of a possible recession, but I think that something that people are not clear about is until what moment a recession is announced, since it is clear that we will have one, but something that is not said is that it is obvious that we are not going to have it announced at least this year, but perhaps within a year or in the first quarter of 26.
Also, this is not all bad for $BTC
Since #bitcoin is represented as digital gold, something that could even boost its rise a little more, just as other factors are starting to come together, for example a friend I speak to told me that after years they are going to return some money from an exchange that went bankrupt a long time ago, something that can promote retail. So the time for a bull market is missing.

I can call myself an expert in the cryptocurrency market (6 years investing), and although I have been trading futures for less than a year, it is clearly when I have obtained the highest returns in all markets, I have earned almost 40k dollars (I have also lost 25k of those 40k in sudden market movements); but after so many mistakes, operations and time, I learned to read and especially not to risk more than necessary my money, so in these last days of the month I plan to enter with about 15k dollars of liquidity, because I plan to put myself in long positions of trading bots, which is what I specialized in, since it is what I have found the highest profitability risking the least possible money. So I will tell you as simply as possible my investment strategy for the rest of the year and early 2025.

I think this may be the last bull run as we know it, so in my opinion this is the last opportunity to have those life-changing returns even risking a small part of the assets, personally I can invest so much money because I have analyzed very thoroughly and seen temporalities of past cycles, so I sold a car and I am sure it will be a very good decision, my strategy is to buy low caps on the spot, for example Flux-Pepe-Robin.
And the first moves I'm going to make are at $BTC and $ETH , where I'll go long with the bots, leveraged about 100x (in the bot market it's equivalent to 10x) and without much risk of liquidation, but making money on the ups and downs they make during the first few months, and then I'll do the same with coins like sol and Hbar, but always lowering the leverage and gradually taking some money out of the market until February, when I think we can experience a reacquisition, to continue with the final bullish stretch, between June and September, when the low caps and memecoins will come out.

It's not an investment recommendation, but it's the strategy I plan to apply.