There are less than two weeks until Trump officially takes office as President of the United States!
As mentioned before, the current main strategy is: to use this positive news to reverse operations and wash out the market! After all, many people believe that January will be the starting point for a major bull market, and a lot of these people include me, so the main force will show a wave, operate against human nature, wash out the market one last time, and then drive up prices, which seems to yield higher profits!
The two major financial events to watch this week are:
January 9 at 3:00 AM, minutes from the Federal Reserve's FOMC monetary policy meeting;
January 10 at 9:30 PM, release of U.S. non-farm payroll data for December;
So let's do a survey: where do you think the bottom of this BTC decline is?

How has Bitcoin performed historically in January?
Analysis of Bitcoin's data over the past ten years shows that in historical Januaries, Bitcoin generally rises more than it falls, with a rise-to-fall ratio of 4:6 over the ten years.
However, specifically speaking, the years with declines mostly had minimal drops, for example, the declines in 2015, 2016, and 2018 were all less than 1%, which can be considered flat;
In the second year post-halving, specifically 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin's return in January was positive, indicating that the halving effect is still quite strong.
January marks the start of a bull market. Although I mentioned on Monday that there needs to be a dip this week, the dip I referred to is a correction, which is a buying opportunity and does not affect the long-term bullish outlook, nor does it impact the bullish sentiment for January. Before the end of January, Bitcoin is expected to break through $120,000. I am posting this as evidence! Note dated January 8.

This time, the big drop is best and most likely for BTC to fall in the 92,000-94,000 range, and for ETH to drop to 3,200-3,300 USD;
If there are excessive long positions causing a spike, it may drop another 3-5%;
All I can say is that bulls shouldn't be too stubborn and provide too many temptations and chips to the big players;
Friends holding spot can place orders around this price! For altcoins, place orders with a drop of 15-30% from the highs, and it's best to place orders in batches with a ratio of 2-3-3-2.

The big drop came as expected!
Yesterday, when the market was rising, I posted that there would be a drop this week. The question is how to drop? : First rise and then fall? Or drop directly?
I wanted to post another post at 9 o'clock to remind the 10:30 opening of the US stock market and the decline of the cryptocurrency circle, but I was so involved in the phone call that I forgot the time.
I struggled for a while yesterday (as shown in the tweet below), and still closed 1/3 of the long position of the currency-based contract, and then opened a short position in the U-based contract to hedge. This wave of decline is not a loss, but overall the spot position is still larger, and it is a profit-taking. However, as long as the bull market continues, it is only a matter of time before it is earned back.
Now let's discuss the possibility of another question: How much will it fall this week?
1. Bitcoin's first target: Will it fall to around 94,000?
2. Bitcoin's second target: Will it break through $90,000?
3. Will the altcoin fall by 10-20%, or even 30% more?
Currently, there is a 70% chance of reaching the first target and a 30% chance of reaching the second target. The logic is as mentioned yesterday (Figure 1 below). Welcome to discuss!

US stocks gapped up high, and Bitcoin directly broke through the $100,000 mark!
But: Do not chase the rise, do not chase the rise, do not chase the rise!
As mentioned last week, this Monday, the European and American double holiday is over, and it will be a time for a trend change. I have to say that the opening is fierce, just as we said last week: it directly opened and rose, not giving retail investors time to react, and it all rushed to the resistance level. Not only Bitcoin hit the resistance level, but ETH and many altcoins also rushed directly to the resistance level;
At this position, even if it is not a trap to entice buyers, it should still pull back. Yesterday, I saw that there were $2.6 billion long positions waiting to be cleared at $93,000. Will it first rise to clear the shorts, then dip down to clear the longs, and then both sides explode before rising again? Let's wait and see!
PS: The current trading hours for US stocks are: Beijing time 22:30-5:00 the next day; #比特币走势观察 $BTC

A continuous two-week volume-reducing rebound (especially evident in ETH), this trend feels like it’s going to drop this week! The questions are:
1. How will it drop: will it rise first and then fall, or will it just drop directly?
2. How much will it drop?
A symbolic drop: $BTC Bitcoin drops 5-8% to around 94000, with ETH leading altcoins down 10-20%; or a deep drop, breaking new lows below 90000, even piercing 90000 dollars down to the next support at 85000 dollars?
Honestly, I'm a bit conflicted about whether to close my long positions, hoping it won't drop too much.

3. This week's major financial events are mainly two:
January 9 at 3:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes;
January 10 at 21:30, the U.S. non-farm payroll data for December will be released.
I mentioned it in the article before: 币圈1月财经日历：特朗普就任美国总统，美联储利率决议，比特币能否突破新高到12万美元？

4. Will there really be a drop during Trump's inauguration on January 20, only for the great leader to rise again afterwards? On one hand, it's a way to show political achievements with “loyalty”, and on the other hand, using favorable events for reverse operations to wash the market!
After all, many people believe that January will be the starting point of a major bull run, including myself, and then the dog funds show some operations, going against human nature, and finally wash the market and then rally, seems to yield higher profits!
Be cautious with risk control! All coin friends are welcome to discuss, as the right things emerge from collisions!

After six consecutive days of rising, a correction for Bitcoin is coming!
The first target for the Bitcoin correction is $96,000, and the second target is $94,000;
ETH will be around $3,450 - $3,500, and altcoins will see a 10% range. Of course, we hope for a normal correction rather than a violent liquidation of leverage, which could lead to a crash;
There are currently quite a few people chasing the upswing, and at the resistance level, a correction is a direction that is easier for the major players to gain more profit;
The rise will not be smooth sailing; a spiral ascent is the norm.

2025 has arrived, and the countdown to the new 365 days has begun!
2025 is the second year of the halving. From a historical perspective, the second year of the halving is the beginning and end of a crazy bull market!
So will history repeat itself in 2025? Will the fourth round of Bitcoin halving start a crazy bull market, and where will the bull market end? When will the cottage season come and when will it reach its climax? There are also the choices of the Fed's interest rate cut path, what concepts/currencies are worth paying attention to, and whether global regulation and compliance can really take the crypto market to the next level?
Welcome to check out the latest article: 2025年展望：比特币高点是20万美元？减半大牛市何时结束？

Can Bitcoin reach new highs again? Will the bull market continue in 2025?
From on-chain data and market sentiment, the current market is overall still in a "middle" state, neither too "hot" nor too "cold".
For instance, from the Bitcoin rainbow chart, it is currently in the holding phase, just at the middle state of 9 indicators, with 4 stages above representing bubble, severe bubble, etc., meaning that most Bitcoin holders are still in a wait-and-see state.
From the Bitcoin HODL wave, the data for short-term holders below one year has been shrinking during this round of Bitcoin price surge surpassing $100,000;
This means that many new investors who bought Bitcoin have already sold it, which can also be attributed to the three significant drops in December, achieving the purpose of washing out positions;
Meanwhile, the proportion of long-term holders is continuously increasing, indicating that large holders remain optimistic about the market's future. Those declaring the bull market has ended are likely just shooting from the hip, entirely based on gut feelings.
Don't stop farming just because a crow caws!
On January 20, Trump was inaugurated as President of the United States; on January 31, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision; Bitcoin is expected to reach a new historical high by the end of January, pushing towards $120,000, and then the explosive growth of altcoins will also enter the fast lane! Look back at this tweet then! $BTC

Will the peak of the bull market in 2025 be Bitcoin at $200,000? Will the bull market end around November 2025?
Historically, the year after the halving is the beginning and end of a crazy bull market, for example:
The first halving was on November 28, 2012. The next year, 2013, Bitcoin rose from about $12 to $1,150, an increase of nearly 95 times; then it reached the peak of this round of bull market in November 2013, and then began to fall, and the bull market ended.
The second halving was on July 9, 2016. The next year, 2017, Bitcoin rose from about $400 to $19,800, an increase of nearly 50 times; then it reached the peak of this round of bull market in December 2017, and then began to fall, and the bull market ended.
The third halving was on May 11, 2020. In the second year, 2021, Bitcoin rose from about $8,000 to $69,000, an increase of nearly 9 times; then it reached the peak of this bull market in November 2021, and then began to fall, and the bull market ended.
Tomorrow, an article on the outlook for 2025 will be released: Will the high point of Bitcoin in 2025 be $200,000? The crazy bull market begins and ends?
You can wait for a while!

Today, the surge led by $BTC is mainly due to buying in the Asian market, or it can be said that the retail investors from Dongda have returned from their holiday to buy at the bottom, but the trading volume has not picked up;
Currently, it is just after 5 AM New York time, and American retail investors are still not awake to trade, while the institutional investors on Wall Street are still on holiday (holiday dates: December 22 - January 5).
So, maintain patience and don't rush to chase the rise, especially with leveraged buying.
Buying at the bottom in the spot market is indeed fine, but one must have a good mindset and remain steadfast in the face of subsequent drop scenarios without panic selling.
If the main players didn't take action early, it is likely to trigger a short squeeze since there have been quite a few people yelling to short the market; a short squeeze would also yield profits. Care must be taken as there may be another drop that could trigger a long squeeze, leading to a common double kill of both bulls and bears.
The bull market continues, and 2025 is also a year when the crazy bull market begins, but patience and mindset are very important, especially during this uncertain transitional period. #比特币走势观察

This volatile market, which has lasted for almost half a month, will usher in a direction choice next Monday, and the rise and fall will be in an instant!
Since the end of the second step of Bitcoin's decline on December 22, major European and American countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany have successively entered the Christmas and New Year's Day holidays;
The market also fell into a range of fluctuations, the trading volume shrank, and the price range gradually tightened;
Now, the dog dealers are still basking in the sun on the beach, holding the leeks that were previously pulled up and killed and cut down to look at the bikini; retail investors are still working hard to guess the rise and fall;
On the 5th, that is, this Sunday, the end of the Double Day holiday will basically end, and it can also be said that institutions and big investors represented by Wall Street will return next Monday;
By then, the general direction of the market will be clear. After choosing the direction, the rise and fall will be in an instant, and retail investors will not have time to react, and the layout needs to be early!
If you think you will choose to rise next Monday, you need to buy when no one is interested now, and if you think it will fall, leave early! $BTC
Which direction is next Monday? Please choose!

The holiday is over, is a big drop coming?
The monthly candle for Bitcoin this month is quite frightening, it feels like the evening star of a big drop, reminding me of the monthly candle from April 2021! Subsequently, the next month saw one of the most catastrophic drops in history, the infamous "5.19" crash!
Of course, it can't be as simple as seeking a sword in a boat, after all, the current consensus and institutional involvement in Bitcoin are difficult to compare to that time.
Moreover, the halving market had been ongoing for a year, and after hitting the upper Bollinger Band, it rose for 6 consecutive months, now we are 8 months post-halving and after 6 months of consolidation, we are breaking new highs.
However, this monthly $BTC is indeed making me sweat; with the double holiday ending, the main force is returning, preparing for an impact!
After such a long period of sideways movement, the longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical; this vertical can go up or down, but for now, the probability of going up is slightly greater.

The year 2024 has passed, and on the first day of 2025; we look back at the past and look forward to the future; what surprises and unexpected events did the cryptocurrency world have in 2024? What opportunities did you seize, and what opportunities did you miss? Did we achieve our goals? Are there any regrets?
Looking back at the cryptocurrency world of 2024, the article has been published: 回顾2024：比特币减半并突破10万美元，迎接最好也最坏的时代！

It's just so willful, $BTC is just a straight line when you talk about it, but it can't be said to be a reversal. The greater possibility is a big explosion followed by another explosion, especially for those trading at 100x or 50x leverage. Right now, it's just a fluctuation.
In the short term, on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is between $91,500 and $96,000, while ETH is between $3,300 and $3,450;
Currently, looking at the major events on the financial calendar, there are no significant events expected before January 10, unless there are unexpected incidents. If there is no change this Friday, then we can only expect a big shift around the U.S. non-farm payroll data.
Spot users should just enjoy the holiday after buying, and accompany the girls; contract users should set stop-loss and take-profit levels in the range, short when it rises, long when it falls, and who knows, they might make a fortune.

$BTC Altcoins don't want to drop, and ETH wants to hold on, but Bitcoin says: I want to drop, I've been strong for too long, and now I'm in a correction phase!
The altcoin season is right around the corner, you have to believe in the light (seriously ing)
Bitcoin breaking through 92,000 should be a bait for a short, too many people want to short or are already shorting;
The main forces represented by Wall Street in Europe and America are currently on vacation at the beach, and it's hard to see much action right now.
The market spends 90% of its time in consolidation; choosing a direction, the rise and fall happens in an instant, it won’t give retail investors time to react, so planning needs to be done in advance, buy when no one cares.

2024 is almost over. To sum up the characteristics of the cryptocurrency market this year, it is: while Bitcoin continues to break new highs, a number of altcoins have performed poorly, following the decline but not the rise, so that many people have shouted that there is no altcoin season, only the Bitcoin bull market.

The severity of this situation can be seen from the difference between the current mainstream currencies and their historical highs: ETH is -30% away from its historical high, BNB is -11%, DOGE is -57%, ADA is -71%, TRX is -40%, and AVAX is -74%.

Even the currencies that performed strongly in 2024 are still some distance away from their historical highs, such as: XRP is -43% away from its historical high, SOL is -28%, PEPE is -36%, and AAVE is -49%.

The performance of old mainstream currencies is also as bad as it can be, such as BCH is -89% away from its historical high, LTC is -75%, XLM is -62%, and LINK is -56%; this is the result after a round of rise in this round of market at the end of the year.

The performance of the popular currencies in the last bull market is even worse, such as ICP, which is -99% from its historical high, FIL, which is -98%, DOT, which is -87%, and UNI, which is -69%.

From the performance of ETH, the weathervane of the altcoin season, ETH has broken through the high point of the March bull market in December. Although it was brought down by Bitcoin, it also shows that the progress of the altcoin season has reached a critical node. Judging from the current market situation, ETH may exceed its historical high before March 2025. By then, other high-quality altcoins may also rise one after another and exceed their historical highs one after another.