7.19 Bitcoin market analysis and operation suggestions:

In the 1-hour chart of Bitcoin, the price of the currency tested the 65,000 mark several times yesterday and then fell under pressure again. The current K-line continues to move downward in the EMA10 and EMA80 range. There is still strong pressure above the short-term. The first support below considers EMA120, and the second support considers EMA150 and the callback straight line range; the Bollinger band is closing, and the current K-line just forms a callback at the middle track position. During the day, you can pay attention to the upper track and the callback straight line pressure position as a short entry point;

In the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger band channel has turned into a downward channel trend since the day before, and currently forms a parallel downward movement The state of the market is still not closed, indicating that there is still a large space below. You can continue to pay attention to the middle track position for shorting during the day, which is also consistent with the hourly track position. DIF and DEA in MACD continue to spread downward after forming a dead cross at a high level. There is still space below. The current medium and long-term support is strong. The support below considers the intersection of EMA200 and EMA60. Below EMA60, there are also multiple support lines with EMA150, EMA80, and EMA120. Therefore, it is still a bit difficult to expect a short-term break below the 61000-61500 mark, unless there is a negative impact like the last round of German light positions!

It is recommended to short 2% in the range of 64200-64600, reserve 4% for replenishment at 65200-65400, stop loss at 65500; take profit at 63150-62500-61800; It is recommended to go long 2% in the range of 61500-61800, stop loss at 60800; take profit at 1000-1500 points

Market analysis on July 2:
Bitcoin has currently broken through the long-term downward trend line and continues to rise. The research institute believes that an N-shaped rise can be expected in the near future, and the view of a short-term rebound can be maintained.

If the RSI indicator approaches the oversold area, considering the short-term adjustment, it is a good choice to find opportunities for rebounds in the adjustment range for trading.

The market generally believes that this is a rebound range after the low point, and there may be buying orders. But in a rebound without good news, it is recommended to operate against the trend.

Resistance level reference:

First resistance level: 63400

Second resistance level: 64380

In the range of breaking through the first resistance level, the probability of 64K retesting will also increase, so a small rise can be expected.

Since the high point is currently being tested, it is recommended to pay attention to whether the high point test is successful and observe whether it will form a flag pattern.

Support level reference:

First support level: 62600

Second support level: 62000

The first support level is the low point area after the rise, so it must be stabilized to maintain the view of a short-term rebound.
If it falls below the 1st support level, there will be further adjustments due to the lower lows, so 62K is also a buying area with a suitable profit and loss ratio.

Today's trading suggestions:
In today's trading, the chart has turned to an upward trend and maintains the view of rebound.

Pay attention to the trend of the 60-day moving average. If the trading volume is small during the adjustment, the 1st and 2nd support levels can be regarded as buying opportunities, which is also a buying area with a suitable profit and loss ratio.

Please refer to these suggestions when trading
7.2 Research Institute short-term pre-buried orders:

Long entry reference: 61600-62000 range batch long, defense 500 points, target 62600-63400

Short entry reference: 64380-64780 range batch short, defense 500 points, target 63400-62600

This week's macro highlights include whether the US June non-farm payrolls will cool down as expected, Powell and Lagarde will speak at the European Central Bank Forum, many countries will release PMI data, and the Federal Reserve will release the latest meeting minutes. In addition, pay attention to the 2024 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, the British and French elections.

Last week, the Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 73 million, maintaining a good state of inflow for 4 consecutive days. However, considering that the daily inflow of funds is relatively small, the total inflow for the whole week was only 37.3 million.

Of course, the good news is that BlackRock has finally ended the 10-day continuous 0 inflow state. Whether BlackRock, the absolute leader, can continue to buy and buy is the key factor in this week's market trend.

There is a lot of news about Ethereum ETF. First, the SEC review continues, and the S-1 form has been pushed to the issuer with a small number of comments. It seems that there should be another round of review, so Bloomberg analysts postponed the ETF approval time to July 8.

After the second test of 60063, the big cake continued to rebound. The three waves of 4 hours completed the breakthrough of 62500. Ethereum tested the 3355 line 5 times and received support. Ethereum itself was relatively strong. The greed and fear index rebounded to 53, and most of the long positions have been liquidated.

2024.7.1BTC————————

After the closing of the monthly line, the price rushed up in the short term to try to stabilize at the 63000 line. After the double needle bottoming of the monthly line, whether 58000 can form support is an important node. The real body on the daily line collected a positive line and stabilized above 61300. The upper resistance focused on 63500. The long-short watershed on the daily line focused on 6600. Therefore, although there is a short-term pull-up momentum in the early trading, the trend still remains in a bearish trend. The short-term four-hour upper boll opened and the price ran in the rising channel. The short-term support below focused on the 61500-61200 line. After the previous high pressure of 62000 in the short-term of one hour is broken, a new top-bottom conversion pressure will be formed. Based on the above, it is recommended that Bitcoin continue to rebound and short during the day.

Pre-buried order:

63500-63800 short, defense 500 points, target 800-1500 points or more

Ethereum's performance this time is even stronger. In the morning, due to the positive US API data and the export trade commodity bills on the Japanese side, this round of rise will continue to the 3620-3640 range. You can consider falling back to the 3525-3555 area to go long indirectly, with a stop loss of 3510. At 2 pm, there will also be the UK's CPI monthly and annual rates, which can be paid special attention to. Also, before this morning, if it can break through the previous high of 3650-3670, then it will most likely rise to the 3750-3730 position, because the current 4-hour MACD medium-low golden cross is intentionally formed, and the first column is above the 0 axis. If successful, it will inevitably rise to the top of the trend line, otherwise it can be shorted!

At present, from the perspective of the 4-hour level, Bitcoin repeatedly tested the upper pressure of 67000-67500 and fell back, and rebounded at the lower support of 65000. In the short term, a wide range of shocks with pressure above and support below is formed. As mentioned in the analysis given in the previous article, the upper pressure of 67300-67500 is very critical. If it rebounds and breaks above, this round of correction will be over, and the market will rise again to above 70000. If it falls under pressure, it is expected that the 60000 mark will come again. Similarly, the upper pressure of Ethereum is 3650, and the lower support is 3350. If the pressure test is successful, the market will retreat to the 3350 line again. If it breaks above, it will rise again to the 3900-4000 line.

2024.6.17BTC————————

After the double needle peaked on the weekly line, the price began to collect the negative line. If the 66500 support becomes a suppression, the price on the weekly line will still have a certain downward space. Otherwise, the price will get a strong breakthrough. The short-term suppression on the daily line focuses on the vicinity of 66800, and the overall trend remains in the bearish trend of the daily line. The watershed of the long and short trend focuses on the 68500 line. If the subsequent price can smoothly stand above 66500, then the price will definitely go back to test the 68500 line, and the daily line will overall move upward in the bearish trend. In the short-term four-hour, the overall operation is in the boll downward channel. 66300 has a certain short-term support strength. It is recommended to focus on the support below and pay attention to the vicinity of 65300. In terms of operation, it is aggressive to buy more at the current price of 66300 or 65300, and see the breakthrough of 67500. In the one-hour, the price will rebound from the 66000 support again, and the fast and slow lines have signs of a dead cross opening. In the one-hour, it is recommended to pay attention to the 66000 integer mark support. Based on the above suggestions, we suggest shorting Bitcoin when it rebounds steadily and doing aggressive short-term long trading.

Facing the weekend, our trading attitude should be more moderate. It doesn't mean that pulling up will definitely work. In addition to risk aversion, it can exceed the range of 2,000 US dollars to give you an upward impact. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is hawkish, and it clearly tells you that it will not exceed the expected rate cut this year. Can the market still fly? Even if it rises, it will be slow. Why am I so sure? The technical head and shoulders top pattern is also very obvious. Isn't the position of these shoulders the current pressure? So if you want to short, you can focus on the strength of the 67,400 resistance in the short term. If the rebound can't go up here, then this is a transparent short position. Going down 1,000 points is definitely a good place. Now the afternoon of the white market is basically volatile, but there is still room for rebound in the short term of 1 hour. It is expected to fall in the evening, so before that, we have to give it time and space to rebound a little bit, so it is recommended to be steady and wait for the rebound to be in place before going short. It's not too late. Don't rush to open a position now. It's a bit radical. This position is also awkward.

6.16 Bitcoin operation strategy: #币安合约锦标赛

　　1. 67300-66900 short, stop loss above 67700, target 66100-65800, continue to break down and look at around 65000

　　2. 65700-66100 long, stop loss below 65400, target 66900-67400

　　6.16 Ethereum operation strategy:

　　1. 3620-3590 short, stop loss above 3650, target 3480-3450-3420

　　2. 3430-3470 long, stop loss below 3400, target 3530-3560

At the daily level of Bitcoin/Ethereum, the current KDJ indicator shorts are shrinking, and the opening amplitude of the lower track of BOLL is not large, which has caused the rebound and pull-up sentiment after touching the bottom support. The current MA5 and MA10 of the main chart of the daily line continue to press down, but the MA30 daily moving average continues to strengthen and does not produce technical linkage with the shorts, which is also the key to the hardness of the daily line. At the 12-hour level, the KDJ and MACD indicators continue to shrink in shorts, and BOLL is currently weakening overall. So the short-term rebound sentiment high point pressure is to look at the middle track of BOLL; the three-day moving averages of the main chart MA continue to be arranged and pressed down at different amplitudes, but compared with the decline of MA5 in the past few days, it has weakened. In addition, the green TD1 rebound signal appears in the TD aspect. I personally expect that the overall trading idea today is still mainly to step back and do more. The specific points can be referred to:

BTC: 66000-65500 more, target 67000


ETH: 3510-3480 more, target 3580

As the market has adjusted down from the high point of 72,000 in 4 hours and returned to the lower edge of the 4-hour central axis, the pessimism and panic in the market have begun to spread, and voices shouting 60,000 points or even 50,000 points have begun to rise and fall. This emotion conforms to the universal law of the capital market: chasing up and killing down!

As a trader, emotions are the biggest obstacle and the biggest enemy of oneself. If you want to be a qualified trader, you can't be carried away by market emotions and become a slave to emotions! Only by keeping enough sobriety and rationality, guiding us in the right direction through the structure of the entanglement theory, and going against emotions, can we see the light, which is the best way to face such a complicated panic situation.

There is a classic saying in the original text of the entanglement theory by Master Chan that reveals the true meaning of trading: the buying point always appears in the panic decline, and the selling point always appears in the crazy rise!

Back to the current market, BTC is already at a critical moment in the decline process and has reached the critical point.

Bitcoin daily short side artillery has been formed, and the consensus on the resistance of the high 68500 has been reached. The subsequent Bitcoin price will usher in a discount market. The overall price on the daily line has come to a bearish trend. If there is no rebound in the intraday operation contract, you can short it. The four-hour coin price is running in the boll down channel. The upper resistance is around 67800, and the lower support is recommended to pay attention to the 64800 line. The MACD short position is generally dominant in the attached indicator, and the fast and slow lines continue to run at the bottom and cross again. Therefore, the four-hour price can only have a certain long repair possibility if it breaks through the 67800 line. The one-hour coin price is strictly speaking in a volatile market, and it is running around the 66000-68500 range. There is a certain long force at 66800 at present. It is aggressive to look at the breakthrough of 67800 in the short term. Based on the above, it is recommended that Bitcoin continue to rebound and short in the future.

The CPI data released by the US at 8:30 p.m. was 3.3%, lower than the expected value of 3.4%. The data was positive (the lower the CPI, the earlier the interest rate cut time). After the data was released, the entire digital currency market collectively soared, and the big cake jumped directly from more than 67,000 to above 69,000, with the highest close to 70,000 points. It then fluctuated above 69,000 points until the interest rate meeting ended at 2 a.m. and announced that the interest rate would remain unchanged. After Bao came out to play Tai Chi and said a lot of nonsense, he turned around and inserted the needle downward again, inserting the lowest to 67,250, giving a blow to those who chased high and went long. The current price is 68,250, and the US stock market closed at a record high.

As the impact of the news on the trend is realized, from a large-scale structural point of view, the trend is still in the inference made before. Short-term news stimulus will not affect the general direction: Bao's tough speech at 2 a.m. caused the price to return to around 67,200 in the short term, and the price closed above 68,000 before 8 a.m. today. Although the daily line has a long upper shadow positive line, the price has not formed a bullish engulfing, and is still under pressure below MA30. The overall daily line still maintains a short-term trend, and the rebound is stable during the day. In the short-term four-hour line, the overall boll decline channel is maintained, and the decline is volatile, but the MACD bulls on the attached chart begin to increase in volume, and the fast and slow lines open upward at the bottom of the golden cross. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent price increase. The pressure on the 69200 line. In the one-hour line, there is a certain degree of anti-pulling strength, and the probability of the price maintaining a volatile upward trend is increasing. Based on the above, it is recommended to mainly short Bitcoin rebound during the day.

Bitcoin/Ethereum surged again in the evening with the help of CPI data. As of now, Bitcoin has reached a high of 69960, close to the 70000 mark. According to the current trend, it is also a high probability event to break through 70000 in the evening. Ethereum has reached a high of around 3657. The overall trend is indeed strong under the favorable data.

After the current market has risen, we first need to pay attention to whether the daily line and the previous high points of Ethereum 3680 and the big cake 70500 can effectively break through and stabilize. We need to look at it step by step.

At present, after Bitcoin/Ethereum rose rapidly in the evening, it entered a high-level sideways state again. The market has also tested the market up and down many times. In the short cycle, the pressure level and support level are not broken, and it can be appropriately sold high and bought low when it hovers around such an important point. From the perspective of the daily line, in the case of high-level sideways trading, the upper resistance still exists. If you want to rise better, you will definitely do a good job of market repair and accumulation. It is not advisable to chase more at such a critical node. The evening market can be seen as mainly rising and falling.
Operation suggestion: Enter the market with a short position when the current price of Bitcoin is around 70,000, with a target of around 68,000 to 68,500; enter the market with a short position when the current price of Ethereum is around 3,645, with a target of around 3,540 to 3,570, and set the stop loss at 70,800 and 3,690. At present, the relatively good ones are recommended for trading in the ORDI, LPT, SOL, and NOT bands.

2024.6.11ETH————————

The current price of Ethereum continues to fluctuate, and the price on the daily line has not been able to rise, resulting in the current bullish trend not being too strong. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the suppression of 3730 for short-selling during the day, and the bullish support below is recommended to focus on the 3600 integer mark. In the four-hour chart, Ethereum is running in a downward channel as a whole. The bullish sentiment suppressed by the upward trend of the attached indicator has not been completely released, resulting in the fast and slow lines running below the zero axis. It is recommended to pay more attention to the support strength of 3620 in the four-hour chart. In the one-hour chart, the overall tendency is to fluctuate downward, with short-term suppression of 3680, and the overall downward range is 3720-3640. Based on the above, it is recommended to do more in the subsequent steady correction of Ethereum during the day, and short-selling at high levels can be handled.

The current price of Bitcoin is still fluctuating above 69,000. It is consolidating in the short term and will continue to pull back. The 4h level pullback of Bitcoin has not been completed, and there is still room below, but this does not mean that all altcoins will continue to fall. In fact, many altcoins have completed the deleveraging plan with a large negative line, so the altcoins may not continue to fall below the tip of the pin. Don't hesitate to find an opportunity to enter the market at a low level.

The interest rate cut in Europe does not seem to give you much surprise, and the market is also motionless, and even after the announcement, there was a pullback. As a result, many friends seem to be more and more confused about Europe. After looking at everyone's questions, everyone is very powerful now and looks down on the European economy more and more. Things may not be as bad as everyone thinks. The flow of funds needs a certain time difference to flow into the market, especially the release of non-agricultural data a few days ago is not ideal. Although the reference significance of the data level is not great, it will also affect the medium-term trend. This paragraph is to draw everyone's attention to the interest rate cut strategy at the financial level, which is related to the trend of the entire financial industry this year. The interest rate cuts in Europe and Canada will be the main theme this year, prompting the US interest rate cuts to be put on the agenda. Once the US also joins the interest rate cut team, the bull market will definitely restart. (Not only for the cryptocurrency circle but the entire financial market)

According to the analysis of Bitcoin 4H level chart, we can see that the current market is showing an upward trend, and the DIF line in MACD is below the DEA line, indicating that the market is under great selling pressure. However, the green bar chart is gradually shortening, indicating that the selling pressure is weakening, which indicates that there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term.

On the other hand, the K-line value and the D-line value in the KDJ indicator are hovering around 50, indicating that the market is in a state of shock. At present, the K-line value and the D-line value are below 50 and form a golden cross upward, which indicates that the price of Bitcoin will rebound in the short term. If the K-line value and the D-line value continue to move upward, the price will rise further.

Finally, we can see from the Bollinger Band indicator that the price of Bitcoin is currently fluctuating above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, which indicates that the market as a whole is still biased towards bulls. If the price can break through the upper track and continue to run above the upper track, the bullish trend will be further confirmed. On the contrary, if the price falls below the middle track, it will pull back to the position of the lower track.

According to the Bitcoin 1H level chart, first we can see that the DIF line and DEA line in MACD are above the 0 axis, and the DIF line is crossing the DEA line downward. In this case, it generally indicates that the price will have downward pressure in the short term.

Secondly, we can see from the KDJ indicator that the current K line value and D line value are both above 50, and the J line value is close to 100, but the J line value shows signs of turning down, which indicates that the market is currently in an overbought state and may be adjusted at any time.

Finally, we can see from the Bollinger Bands indicator that the current price is between the middle track (71016) and the upper track (71498), and the price has just broken through the upper track and then fell back to below the upper track. Everyone knows that when the price breaks through the upper track but fails to break through or fails to stabilize after breaking through, it means that the price has formed a certain resistance to the market rise, and then it will be adjusted down to the middle track or even the lower track (70539).

Comprehensive analysis: Overall, Bitcoin is still in an upward trend, but MACD and KDJ both show certain sell signals, and the Bollinger Band indicator also shows that the price failed to maintain after breaking through the upper track, indicating that the upward momentum is insufficient and will face certain correction pressure in the short term.For intraday operations, it is recommended to focus on long positions on pullbacks.

The market will turn its focus to the US non-farm payrolls data for May, which will be released at 20:30 tonight. The report is expected to show an increase of 185,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.9% during the same period. Weaker-than-expected employment data may trigger speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, so Wall Street and traders are on high alert.

ANZ analysts pointed out that traders expect the non-farm payrolls report to be released later today to be weaker. If the employment growth is lower than the median forecast of 185,000 by economists, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, each time by 25 basis points. However, Joseph Capurso, international economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a client report: "We expect the overall message conveyed by the non-farm payrolls report to be strong, although the strength is weakening."

Analyst Haresh Menghani said that investors are now choosing to wait and see, waiting for the release of the highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls data, and then prepare for the recent trend. It is expected that the US non-farm payrolls will increase by 185,000 jobs in May, compared with 175,000 in the previous month, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.9%.

After breaking through 71,000 on Wednesday, June 5, Bitcoin continued to fluctuate at high points, and reached a high of 71,758 around midnight today. However, selling pressure emerged afterwards, and there was a slight slide. As of the time of writing, the price was 70,978, a slight increase of 0.40% in the past 24 hours.

According to the Bitcoin 4H chart, first of all, we can see that the DIF line in MACD is above the DEA line, and there is a certain distance between the two, which indicates that it is still in a bull market, but the red bar chart shows that the previous bar chart has a tendency to shorten, which means that the upward momentum has weakened. Everyone needs to pay attention to whether there will be a reversal signal in the future.

Secondly, we can see from the KDJ indicator that the three KDJ lines are currently running at high levels in the overbought area, and the J line has a tendency to turn downward, which indicates that there will be a risk of adjustment or callback in the short term.

Finally, we can see that the current Bitcoin price is running between the upper track (72135) and the middle track (70215) of the Bollinger Band, and the bandwidth of the Bollinger Band is relatively wide, and the market volatility is relatively large. Through the recent price rebound from the lower track to the upper track, we can see that the current market is still in a strong upward stage. However, we all know that when the price is close to the upper track, but there is no breakthrough or stabilization of the upper track, this often means that a certain resistance has been formed on the upper track.

Comprehensive analysis: MACD, KDJ and BOLL indicators at the 4H level show that Bitcoin is still in an upward trend, but the upward momentum has weakened, and there may be a callback in the short term. MACD, KDJ and BOLL indicators at the 1H level show that Bitcoin is currently in a downward trend, but the KDJ indicator shows an oversold state, and there may be a demand for a rebound in the short term.

2024.6.6BTC————————

Yesterday, the overall bullish trend was maintained. After the current price stabilized above 71,000, the price began to move up as a whole. The support below is infinitely close to the 70,000 certificate mark. After the MACD long and short volume on the attached chart has reversed many times, the fast and slow lines have opened a golden cross, and the overall daily line still maintains a bullish action. In the short-term four-hour price, the price has entered the boll rising channel, and the overall pattern has diverged from the rise. Be alert to the subsequent price retracement at the four-hour level. It is recommended to pay attention to the square support of the integer mark of 70,000. In the one-hour, after the high, the currency price has come to a volatile market. The Asian and European sessions may still be a volatile market. Pay attention to the 70,400-71,900 range. Based on the above suggestions, Bitcoin can continue to pull back and go long.

Have you forgotten how long it has been since you had a massage for your soul?

The overall pressure in today's society is too great, and the source of pressure actually comes from comparison.

In our parents' time, although material life was relatively scarce, the mental pressure seemed not that great. Everyone works from sunrise to sunrise, and the common goal is to grow more crops for the family. The gap between the rich and the poor does not seem to be particularly large.

For modern people, it is not enough to have enough food and clothing. They are competing with each other about whose car is more expensive and whose house is bigger. This is how the pressure is created.

Living a good life is the most important thing.

...

Qian Jionghao, portfolio manager of the online investment platform FSMOne (Hong Kong), said that U.S. inflation pressure may remain high in the second half of the year and will be difficult to fall back to the 2% target level in the short term. This is mainly due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions and the still strong performance of the U.S. economy. It is estimated that the US Federal Reserve will probably not cut interest rates this year.

2024.6.5BTC————————

The bulls are always in tears. Bitcoin can always break through 70,000 when it strikes back. The overall daily line focuses on the top and bottom conversion support strength of 68,800. After MACD long and short volume conversions, the lower support is slowly moving up, and the long and short volume support position is formed at 69,500 in the current K-line pattern. In the short-term four-hour price, it has entered the upward channel. After the Bollinger opening, MACD ushered in three low volume runs. The price broke through the previous high pressure of 70,500 in one fell swoop. It is recommended to pay attention to the overall pressure of 71,900-72,000 at the high level. The 69,800 in the one-hour line has formed a very obvious support strength, and the price has shown a slight top divergence. Based on the above, it is recommended that Bitcoin continue to pull back and do more.

2024.6.5ETH————————

The daily increase of Ethereum is not very obvious. The overall daily price is still in a top divergence pattern. The divergence repair has not been completed. The overall high position forms a trend of falling in place of sideways. The daily support is recommended to focus on the 3790-3780 line. The price in the short-term four-hour market has been in a volatile market. The 100 points of 3750-3580 have been fluctuating for more than a week. Just wait for the market to change quietly. One hour is the Bollinger opening operation. Although the Ethereum price is running in the rising channel, the overall K-line pattern and the attached indicator macd form a clear top divergence pattern. There will definitely be a callback after the subsequent price surge. Based on the above, Ethereum can continue to pull back and go long.