Systematic analysis of the impact of interest rate cuts on BTC:

First, BTC has experienced a loose monetary policy shift in history. Strictly speaking, it has only happened once, around 2019;

This is also a major reason why the current market trend is highly similar to that in 2019. Both of them went through a bull market at the end of the last round of interest rate hikes (maintaining high interest rates) and fluctuated at a relatively high level for a long time;

As shown in the figure:

When the Fed raised interest rates for the last time at the end of 2018 (reaching 2.5%), BTC's price performance confirmed the bottom of the cycle and went through a bull market in the subsequent 32 weeks when the interest rate remained unchanged;

Similarly, when the Fed raised interest rates for the last time in September 2023 (reaching 5.5%), BTC also confirmed a relay bottom and went through a bull market during the subsequent interest rate maintenance period (54 weeks). A round of bulls;

More interestingly, before the Fed's first rate cut, BTC in 2019 had already peaked 6 weeks in advance and began to form a fluctuating triangle with a continuously decreasing high point;

In 2024, that is, before the Fed's first rate cut, BTC also began to move out of a clear high point reduction pattern 15 weeks in advance (here 72000 is regarded as a double top), crossing 6️⃣蝛: xntm566 and currently forming a potential oscillating triangle;

From the above signs, it can be found that 2024 and 2019 have similar oscillation structures. The reason comes from the similarity of the macro-monetary policy behind them, and the difference in the duration of the oscillation comes from the maintenance time of the high interest rate environment;#美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #新币挖矿CATI #美联储利率决议公布在即 #新币挖矿HMSTR #币安上线NEIRO