$BNB
Last night, the comments section of the diary was full of anger. The main reason was that BNB has been in a slump recently. The exchange rate of BNB to BTC has fallen terribly. I did buy at a high price yesterday. I bought 137 at the price of 647, and then bought more than 30 at the price of 642.

But as a high-priced buyer, I am still not panicking. Let me calculate the EV for you.

Is it possible for BNB to fall to 450? ~ Yes, give it a 50% chance, but BNB also has at least a 30% chance of rising to 1000. The current price of BNB is 625

(625-450)*50%=87; (1000-625)*30%=112. 112>87.

So, you see, the current EV is not too low. And I set a stop loss. As long as it breaks EMA25, I will sell it. In this way, the EV is higher, so you have to have some confidence in BNB.

In fact, it is more important to have a plan for yourself: what should I do if the price does not rise or falls? In this way, I will not panic. When investing, you must make an investment plan for yourself.

$BNB $ACT $NEIRO

1. Because of Binance's launchpad yesterday, I bought some BNB at a high price, and the cost was about 647. As a result, the market was not good today, and BNB once fell to 607, but I didn't panic at all. Because BNB is fine, Binance is still the first in the universe, and the current price of BNB is still relatively low. It has been falling for a long time against BTC, and it will not fall all the time. There will always be rotation.

And Sister Yi also said that she would support the BNB ecosystem, so it is currently floating well, waiting for a big explosion. I guess it is possible to launch a BNB chain MEME, and then detonate the demand for BNB, and at the same time drive the BNB ecosystem.

However, if the big cake market goes bad, as long as BNB falls below the daily EMA25, I will also stop loss.

2. Of course, I also bought some ACT and NEIRO today. In a bull market, people speculate on new coins, not old ones. Therefore, these two are good among the new coins in terms of both the target and the cost performance. PUNT is already worth 2 billion US dollars, not to mention PEPE and DOGE. If there is still a meme bull, then ACT and NEIRO still have a chance.

3. Recently, I have been preparing to make a system to prevent myself from losing money due to emotional operations. Then I will strictly follow the system.

$ACT $PNUT $PNUT

1. It's been crazy recently, absolutely crazy bull. I turned to long after Binance listed ACT, but I was a little late to realize it, otherwise ACT and pnut should have made enough money in this bull market. After Binance announced it, my first reaction was that the market value of ACT was very low, so I bought it quickly.

After buying enough, I found that PNUT was also listed. At that time, PNUT had a market value of more than 300 million, while ACT had a market value of only more than 200 million, so I unknowingly put all my bullets on ACT. Unfortunately, I sold all my goods soon after listing on Binance.

Later, the price of ACT was higher than PNUT, and I bought some PNUT at 0.4, but I sold it before it rose much, and I missed the wealth again.

But I am very grateful to Binance and this market, after all, it pulled me back from the short position. And I made some money.

2. I watched the chain all day today. I could have made 20 sols, but I ended up buying the bottom halfway up the mountain. I lost 4 sols and made 16 sols. I made money mainly from banana and Eagle. In addition, I bought some ACT at around 0.56 last night, but I didn’t expect it to rise by 50% today. I guess it’s mainly because someone knew that the next door was going to go public and did some insider trading in advance.

Binance is still good. For example, in today’s new launchpad, BNB only rose after the news came out. I took over BNB at a high price today and wanted to mine it. Moreover, BNB hasn’t risen much recently. I think as the largest exchange in the universe, it will never lag behind in the bull market and can bear the loneliness.

$BTC $act $PNUT $ACT

If you have missed a lot of quick-get-rich coins, it is better to calm yourself down first.

Because, instead of taking risks like a gambler, it is better to keep your pace and let the victory come later.

Don't be anxious to succeed, be patient, success that comes later is also success. If you can't bear it and bet like a gambler, it is very likely that you will never recover.

$ACT

This is a bull market

Selling at 15 times, still able to sell for 20,000 dollars

Recently, the on-chain market is booming, doubling is effortless

#act $act

Thank you Binance

Unexpected surprise, wake up after a sleep -10 times

I stopped the short position after losing 10,000 yuan:

I placed a short position when I was sleeping last night, and it was traded in the morning, and the highest price of the coin was 1.6. When I woke up, it was 1.4, and the lowest was 1.3. My cost was about 1.3.

I stopped the order at 1.63, and lost nearly 10,000 yuan. Later, the coin rose to 1.96. If I didn't stop the loss, I would have blown up the position, and I would have lost more than 20,000.

Reversal:

1. It was indeed a black swan. The amplitude of this coin exceeded 60% overnight, and the amplitude of 24 hours exceeded 100%.

2. After seeing the situation in the morning, I should have stopped the loss, at least I shouldn't have added positions (I added another 1/3 of the position) ~ because it didn't break the line, and based on past experience, it is likely to rise sharply, but because the funding rate is positive (favorable to short positions), and coupled with loss aversion, I thought about taking another short position.

3. Unexpectedly, the funding rate went from positive to negative in less than 2 hours, which was really amazing (I couldn't beat the dealer, and I guess many retail investors were shorting). At this time, I decisively stopped the loss.

4. If you encounter a coin with such a clear dealer, you should stay away from it, because if you go against the dealer, you will only die miserably (the dealer has a lot of chips, and he can pull it up or smash it as he wants).

5. In the long run, stay away from short-term transactions. If you must trade, try not to short.

#btc

Don't imagine selling at the highest point

As long as you sell at a high point, that's a profit.

Those who think about buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point often end up being the ones left holding the bag.

Don't take the tail-end market too seriously. Besides BTC, the second tier is basically all trapped positions, and you still want to rush in?

#BTC☀

Always selling

Only 0.5 BTC left

If you miss out, you miss out. Doing some finance, playing with a small position in memes is quite good.

The perception of position management: The most useful tool for ordinary people to improve their winning rate or even not lose money.

We say that there are three limiting factors in investment: the size of money, the time limit for the use of money, and the wisdom behind the money.

Among these three points, good position management can extend the time limit for the use of money to permanent. For example: for uncertain coins/memes, you invest one thousandth of the position, or one percent of the position. Then you can completely ignore the fluctuations in the middle.

Because of greed, I always took a relatively large position when some targets were at a low level, and the result was that I was thrown off the bus before the target skyrocketed.

However, since I have regarded position management as a very important factor, I have hardly lost money.

Because it is already at a low level and it is a small position, the loss can be ignored. But the result is that the return is not large.

But in fact, it is not small, after all, the increase in meme is still quite good. This is actually a psychological construction. Don't think about getting rich and quitting the circle in one breath, but take it slowly.

The diary on October 5th said that BTC's various indicators have stabilized and there is a high probability that it will rise. As a result, it really rose, and it reached 68,000 in one breath. Now the short-term indicators ~ 15 minutes and 1 hour lines have broken, but the long-term 4h and daily and weekly indicators have not broken. There may be a short-term correction, but if it does not break in the long term, it may be a small correction and then rise.

However, if the decline of short-term indicators breaks further drives the decline of long-term indicators, then you need to observe whether to ship. Trading must be a dynamic matter of paying attention to and adjusting at any time. I personally don’t like/not very good at trading, so I haven’t done much recently. Friends who do trading can learn about EMA-related indicators, which are quite accurate.

I personally think that web3 is really not innovative at present, and the price of BTC is not low, so I have been shipping. At present, I only have a little bit of big cake, and the rest are U doing financial management. Take a little time every day to think and look at relevant information.

Most of the rest of my time was spent preparing for things related to web2, so the diary is not very relevant to the cryptocurrency world, so I didn’t share it. I will share any immediate thoughts and information in the future.

I checked the price of BTC today and it fell below 62,000 again. As you all know, I started selling BTC at around 65,000, and then sold some more when it rose a few days ago. I am now almost out of stock. The market started to rise a few days ago, and I guess some people started to chase the rise again, which is a bit embarrassing.

I have said many times: extend the perspective a little bit. If it is a cyclical perspective, then I think the current bull market cycle is at least halfway through, after all, it has risen four times from 15,000 to 60,000. If it rises again, not only will there be insufficient funds, but also insufficient potential energy, lack of innovation and big expectations.

If it is a ten-year/permanent perspective, then buying BTC at any time is the right choice.

It is important to know your own positioning and perspective,

1. Last night, because Vitalik sold his Ethereum Hippo for donation, Ethereum Hippo exploded and Sol Hippo plummeted. But today Sol Hippo rose by 50%. Looking back now, we should have taken advantage of the fact that Sol Hippo plummeted yesterday.

Because the market value fell to 100 million US dollars, it is not high. After all, it had a market value of 300 million US dollars at its high point, and everyone’s consensus in the past was on Sol. The sudden deviation of the price caused by the event is likely to recover.

In addition, Neiro has been rising like crazy recently, almost 800 million US dollars, and not far from 1 billion US dollars. It is too difficult to value meme, which is why I missed the opportunity, and because I bought Neiro at a market value of 13 million US dollars, but it was sold out after doubling. Therefore, I was reluctant to buy it at 100 million US dollars on Binance. Who would have thought that it would rise 7-8 times in one breath.

I am still a cautious person. After all, living long in this market is the hard truth.

2. Many times, temptation is temptation because you don't look long enough. The same thing will be very different from a long-term and short-term perspective. For example, contracts, such as speculation. If you have read many books by trading masters, you will know that most trading masters have a bad ending.

Recently, I have been deliberately controlling my trading and short-term thinking. So try to reduce things like watching the market. Because I figured out that a person's life is very long, if you look at it in the long run, trading is simply too negative EV. Except for a few geniuses who can make money, most people will eventually lose money and waste a lot of their lives, and people with a bad mentality will also affect their health.

Therefore, I will look at my future investments in the long term. This will be much simpler. First of all, there will not be many choices of targets. In addition, you don't have to watch the market most of the time. Just check the basic market regularly. The rest of the time, do other things, enjoy life, and create value. This is actually a choice of lifestyle.

1. If you do trading, then EMA related indicators are still very useful. The advantage of using EMA is that the loss is limited and certain, but the profit is unlimited. But the difficulty of trading lies in execution. The core of a good trader is to be able to put aside emotions as much as possible and rationally and strictly follow the plan.

To be honest, I can't do it, so I can only choose to be a value investor and a cyclical investor.

2. The recent meme market is really good, especially after neiro rose 50% today. I thought about it seriously. Under the premise of weak incremental growth at present, on-chain is indeed a relatively good choice. Most of the targets have low market value and are almost fully circulated, and there is also an expectation of listing on centralized exchanges.

So, if you want to get a big return in the current currency circle, then on-chain is indeed a good choice, but choosing on-chain does not mean rushing randomly, but watching more and moving less, finding a feeling with small funds, building your own system, and choosing the right tools.

1. The non-agricultural and unemployment data last night were not bad, and the US stock market was also good at night. BTC also rose with the tide, reaching 62,000+. And looking at the K-line, BTC daily line, 4-hour line and ma120 have all stood firm, so all signs indicate that it should continue to rise.

However, I sold again, and now I have less than 20% of the position, and it is all BTC. The reason is that apart from the positive news of interest rate cuts, I really haven't seen much innovation, and there are no newcomers entering the market. It's all PVP of funds in the market. I have less time recently, so I did what makes me comfortable. However, it is possible to miss out.

2. Today, a hacker stole 1.6 million+ EIGEN and sold it at a low price of 3.3U. It turns out that hackers are the most profitable profession. V God sold 4 meme coins that others sent him today, about several million RMB, which is a lot of money. Today, the market is still very lively, one is Satoshi, the other is Sasha, and many people are making several times or dozens of times.

Some data will be released at 20:30~US non-farm payrolls and US unemployment rate, and then the US stock market will open, so the overall volatility of the market tonight will be a little bigger than before. If you have long-term unfavorable targets, you can consider selling some when it rises tonight, depending on your personal situation.

I only have BTC now, so if BTC goes up tonight, I will sell some more. BTC's volatility was also quite large last night, up and down, basically following the stock fluctuations of Nasdaq and Coinbase.

Although there will be a big interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the future, the US stock market is already at a high level. In this case, it is still difficult to have a big increase and attract global attention. This is also the reason why Mr. Buffett sells stocks. For value investors: buying undervalued stocks and selling overvalued stocks is the core.

The country actually sees that the essence of the stock market is the financial "war" between countries. So after the Fed cut interest rates, the A-share policy followed closely, and then there was an increase in A-shares. A-shares are good, global capital will be attracted, and more companies will be listed on the A-share market. There are more companies and more funds...

Recently, Hong Kong stocks are also good. I finally got rid of procrastination today and applied for Hong Kong and US stocks from Changqiao Securities. I estimate that I can trade Hong Kong stocks in one or two days and slowly put the investment targets on global assets.

Many people blamed the big drop last night on Iran's missile launch at Israel, but those who read my diary know that I gave all my BNB and some BTC the day before yesterday, and also gave the reasons. So in my opinion, the war between Iran and Israel is just the fuse, and the actual drop is probably above expectations.

At present, the big expectations of web3 are basically over: halving, interest rate cuts, ETFs; and the current currency circle itself lacks innovation, and basically plays meme, and the end of meme is "return to zero, leeks take over". So, after the expected rise of this round of interest rate cuts, it broke the line the day before yesterday, and I sold it without hesitation.

However, there is one thing that is not good enough, that is, I did not give the copycat: lista and cati. I thought to myself that this has fallen so much, how much lower can it fall? As a result, the copycat has no lower limit when it falls. If BTC falls by 3 points, it can fall by 20 points, which is nearly 7 times. In this way, even if the copycat has only 5% of the position, it will fall to 35% of the position.

Therefore, try not to touch the altcoins in the future. If you want to buy, buy when it is rising, and clear the position immediately once the rise ends. Because there is really no lower limit when it falls.

Today, I also sold all TON, lista, and cati during the rebound. Now I have almost only BTC and a lot of U. Wait for the right time to buy the bottom. I feel that this adjustment is not over yet. So I pay for my own views, and I will not regret it even if I miss the opportunity when it rises later.

I want to buy at the bottom

But I really feel that the adjustment has not been completed

It's so hard for me, I can't hold u📖

The first day of October is also the Mother's Day. I wish you all a happy holiday.

Because I sold some BTC and BNB yesterday, I suddenly had a lot of U in my hands. I felt uncomfortable with too many U, so I need to keep watching the market to see how to deal with U. This morning, FTT pulled back to 1.8U, and I wanted to buy some. The reason is: from the technical indicators, it did not break the line, and there will be a meeting on October 7, which means that there are still expectations in the next few days. There should be opportunities in the short term. As a result, it pulled up more than 20 points in the afternoon.

But I still didn't buy it. The reason for not buying it was: I was deliberately giving up short-term opportunities. Because even if I make money this time, I will lose it next time. And it also wastes time watching the market.

In the future, there will only be two types of investment. The first type is: optimistic about the target at a low level, and get long-term benefits. The second type is certain opportunities: such as DEFI, arbitrage, airdrops and other opportunities. The rest of the time is used to do business.

Yes, doing business in the next time and doing something valuable to society is actually a lifestyle choice. When you come to this world, you have to choose the way you like to live. I don’t like the way of making enough money to enjoy life. What I like is: building a lifestyle. "Work" for a lifetime. It is also called "enjoying" for a lifetime.

Build a team to do awesome things, make good investments: at the same time, let the investment empower the society and get returns. Take good care of your body, build a beautiful circle of family and friends, and experience the world, Mars... beautiful things.