According to CoinDesk, the Republican Party is on the verge of maintaining its control over the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2024 election cycle. This development comes after the party successfully flipped both the Senate and the White House. As of the latest updates, the Associated Press has called 409 out of 435 seats, with Republicans securing 210 seats compared to the Democrats' 199. The party that reaches 218 seats will secure the majority, and as of Thursday evening, Republicans appeared close to achieving this milestone. Betting site Polymarket reflected this trend, with traders giving Republicans a 98.5% chance of winning the House.
As of 6:30 p.m. EST on Thursday, Republicans were leading in at least 14 of the 27 remaining races, according to AP results. If these leads hold, the Republicans will maintain their majority for at least another two years. In Alaska, Republican Nick Begich held a lead of approximately 10,000 votes over Democrat Mary Peltola, with 76% of votes counted. In Arizona, Congressman David Schweikert, a co-founder of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus, also held a similar lead with nearly 70% of votes counted. Meanwhile, Democrat Greg Stanton maintained a significant lead in another Arizona House race, while Juan Ciscomani, backed by the Fairshake super PAC, trailed narrowly.
In Iowa, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks held a slim 0.2% lead over Democrat Christina Bohannan, suggesting a potential recount. In Nebraska, Republican Don Bacon led by 3% with 95% of votes counted. In Washington, Republican Dan Newhouse appeared set to win against another Republican, which would not benefit the Democrats. This brings the Republicans to 217 seats. For Democrats to regain control, they would need to win all their races in California, where 12 races remain uncalled by the AP, and secure victories in other districts where they are leading. Republicans are currently leading in seven of these California races.
Fairshake-backed Republican candidates in California, such as David Valadao, Michael Garcia, Young Kim, and Michelle Steel, are leading in their respective races. Additionally, Republicans Ken Calvert, John Duarte, and Scott Baugh are also ahead in their contests. While some races may still change as votes are counted, Republicans are projected to hold 224 seats, a slight improvement over the previous Congress. On Polymarket, the likelihood of this outcome was rated at 86% as of the latest update, a significant increase from earlier in the week.
