Crypto has a known pattern: a 4-year cycle that repeats with three years of bear market and one year of explosive growth. So why do so many still lose money despite understanding this rhythm? Letâs break down the rollercoaster ride and why emotions, timing, and psychology play such crucial roles.
The 4-Year Bull Run Cycle â Timing Is Everything
Cryptoâs cycle is predictable yet intense. Hereâs how the typical 4-year journey looks:
⢠Bear Market: The first three years are usually rough, marked by dips and consolidation.
⢠2014-2018: Bear ran for 177 weeks, followed by 34 weeks of bull.
⢠2018-2022: Bear market lasted 157 weeks, with 47 weeks of bull run.
⢠2022-2026: Still riding the bear, waiting for that next all-time high!
Despite this pattern, people often misjudge the best times to buy and sell. Why? Itâs the psychology behind each phase that messes with even the most logical trader.
Market Psychology â Emotions Drive the Ride
Each phase of the market has its own emotional landscape. Hereâs how these cycles break down:
⢠Red Phase (All-Time High Hit): At market peaks, complacency takes over. The excitement fades to anxiety and denial, and as prices drop, panic hits. This is where many sell at a loss, giving in to fear and âcapitulation.â
⢠Yellow Phase (Accumulation): With prices stabilizing, anger and frustration can turn into apathy. Depression sets in, and only the brave or experienced start accumulating assets. But as hope rebuilds, a new foundation is set for the next rally.
⢠Green Phase (Bull Run Begins): Optimism rises as all-time highs are broken. Belief grows, then comes the thrill, and finally, euphoria takes over as prices soar. People rush to buy here, thinking the gains are endlessâoften at the top.
Combining Timing with Psychology â The Perfect Storm for Losses
Knowing the cycle and understanding the emotional phases can save traders from acting out of fear or greed. But these forces often combine, leading to late reactions: buying too high, selling too low, or holding when the exit signal is clear.
Takeaway â Stay Ahead of the Game
The real key is staying aware of the marketâs phases. Use each stage to plan entries and exits that align with market sentiment, not emotion. Knowing the cycle is only half the battleâmastering your mindset is the real game-changer.