A French citizen has made significant investments on Polymarket, a popular crypto-based prediction market, speculating on Donald Trump’s chances in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. According to data from Polymarket, Trump currently has a 63.9% probability of winning, as highlighted by Lookonchain.
The investor placed $4.48 million in “Yes” shares, reflecting strong confidence in Trump’s victory. This action followed a withdrawal of 3 million USDC from the OKX exchange, with substantial bets on Trump sparking discussions on social media about the potential impact of these investments on the prediction market.
Rising Trump Odds and Questions About Market Influence
Trump's increased odds on Polymarket reflect a growing interest from high-stakes investors. In total, four accounts have placed significant bets on Trump’s victory, with a potential combined payout of approximately $46 million.
The rise in Trump’s odds has led some to question whether large investments, such as this French citizen’s, are influencing market sentiment. Polymarket’s investigation, however, confirmed that the trader’s actions were driven by personal conviction rather than any intent to manipulate the market.
Polymarket Verifies Transparency of Betting Activities
An investigation into the French investor’s betting activities revealed significant experience in financial markets, particularly in crypto-based investments. According to Polymarket, the investor made these decisions based on his own interpretation of the U.S. presidential race.
Polymarket further stated that no attempts at market manipulation were detected. The platform also assured that this investor would be required to report any new accounts he might open on Polymarket, ensuring full transparency and market integrity.
Monitoring High-Stakes Accounts on Polymarket
Four accounts participating in high-stakes bets – Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie – are closely monitored by Polymarket to ensure compliance with platform standards. Although Polymarket did not specify which account belongs to the French investor, it emphasized that prediction markets are not public opinion polls. Instead, they gauge the likelihood of specific outcomes based on real-time betting data.
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