The current price of Bitcoin is in the positive gamma zone, while Ethereum is in the negative gamma zone. Bitcoin's surge to 100K is still the main theme, whereas Ethereum is more likely to experience severe fluctuations, aiming for 3800. The price of Solana is at the boundary between positive and negative gamma; if it breaks through 220, there may be a rapid increase, with 240 acting as a resistance line.

Overall, the gamma levels of options are in a relatively stable phase. The implied volatility of various products is decreasing, indicating a phase of double selling profits and buyer positioning.

The Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of January will be an important milestone. Whether or not to cut interest rates could reverse subsequent trends. Beware of black swans, and position to ambush tail risks; risk is also opportunity, isn't it? $SOL $ETH

Talk about compliant deposits and withdrawals

Can c2c still be used? My suggestion is to avoid it as much as possible.

Now, bank risk control is becoming increasingly strict, and new laws and regulations have included cryptocurrencies in the monitoring scope for money laundering. In foreign exchange management, cryptocurrencies have also become sensitive information, so there’s no need to seek trouble.

There are still many channels for compliant deposits and withdrawals.

First, bank wire transfers, following the formal exchange settlement procedures. Fifty thousand dollars per year is basically enough.

Second, Panda Remit as a supplement, which does not use foreign exchange quotas.

Third, borrowing foreign exchange between friends and family.

All of these are safer than over-the-counter trading.

Once risk control is triggered, it affects life, and one has to frequently go to relevant departments to explain, which is very troublesome.

Choosing compliant channels benefits both others and oneself. Feel free to share your ways of compliant deposits and withdrawals.

Last night's increase was quite good, and the trend is encouraging. On the 3rd, Bitcoin had a net inflow of over 500 million, while Ethereum experienced a slight outflow. Overall, the implied volatility remains stable without major fluctuations, and the probability of continued significant increases in the future is relatively low.

The gamma level for Bitcoin is concentrated in the negative gamma area around 100K, which is still a major battleground.

Ethereum's positive and negative gamma areas are interwoven, and there will be strong resistance around 4K.

Solana's negative gamma area is the most extensive, ranging from 210 to 240, with a high probability of wide fluctuations.

Continuing to remind about risks, it is currently not advisable to chase high prices. If you are optimistic about the recent trend, it is recommended to use an options bull spread strategy to position around the resistance line. $SOL $ETH

Today's sudden hardening was quite sudden.

Although it has been declining, it is indeed the rhythm of ambushing buyers, but it is also quite unexpected to have a sudden rise.

Let's take a look at the ETF inflow data tomorrow, I hope it is not a scam.

Here, a pullback is healthier than a hard pull.

It was rumored that the interest rate cuts would stop in January, and it would be a bit deliberate to rise again.

Take a break before rising again, giving the market some room to digest.

Can we still see the 8-digit Bitcoin? Anyway, I have double insurance.

Bitcoin sells 100K and Ethereum sells 4000, no problem. Good night.

Share a savings strategy for buying bitcoin at a low price.

I want to invest in bitcoin regularly in the new year, but I am afraid of buying too expensively due to a retracement. What should I do? I want to earn some interest steadily, but what should I do if the interest rate of U goes down? I recommend you to use this combination strategy, which combines savings and bargain hunting.

Buy bitcoin spot and short forward delivery contracts in equal amounts to form a dollar equivalent combination and enjoy an annualized risk-free interest rate of 10+.

At the same time, sell forward put options. Once bitcoin falls below the strike price, bargain hunting at a low price.

If bitcoin does not fall below the strike price, you will earn the premium for selling and putting. This strategy is very suitable for lazy people who have no time to watch the market. You can sell forwards for a period of three months to six months. $BTC

ETF net inflow has significantly decreased, and the gamma level has also dropped significantly. Currently, just from the changes in implied volatility (IV), it is highly likely that we are seeing a decrease in volatility and a pullback. Ethereum has performed well in the past few days, but without the support of ETF net inflow, the market's momentum is not enough to trigger a real surge. The three volatility footprint charts clearly show a trend of decreasing volatility, and the decrease in volatility on the call side is significantly greater than that on the put side. So, make sure to have adequate insurance, preferably double insurance, and wait for the pullback. $BTC $ETH $SOL

The year-to-date trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum is relatively stable. Overall, they are in a negative gamma area, but the volume of negative gamma positions is also quite small, making narrow fluctuations a high probability trend in the near term. The general decrease in volatility is favorable for sellers who sold earlier. As for Solana, the farthest term volatility is still close to 100, and it is worth continuing to sell deep out-of-the-money options. Bitcoin and Ethereum are more delicate, making it difficult for those trading on exchange rates to decide. However, relying on faith to invest in Bitcoin consistently will not be wrong. It is recommended to simultaneously open a farthest term futures contract for hedging; if a crash occurs, it equals buying at a low price, which is very cost-effective. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Let's talk about legal issues

Is it legal for mainland residents to invest in cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong or Singapore?

It used to be a gray area, but it may soon be clearly prohibited by law.

At the very least, it is explicitly stated that foreign exchange cannot be used to buy houses, trade stocks, or speculate in cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrency is gradually becoming legal and compliant in the United States, and it is necessary to adopt a more lenient approach in mainland China rather than a restrictive one.

For mainland residents with stock accounts, it is entirely feasible to conduct compliant cryptocurrency investments on exchanges in Hong Kong.

I hope that insightful individuals will propose suggestions at this year's National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

Is going long on Bitcoin and shorting BCH a good hedge in the near term?

The whales who were long on the ETH to Bitcoin exchange rate have given up and exited the market, and the ETH long positions are currently in a cooling-off period.

The retracement trend of Bitcoin is becoming very clear, and if we don't hedge something, the exposure is indeed huge.

The BCH, which has been a minor player in the Bitcoin ecosystem, can finally come into play.

STX could also be a hedge, but it has been relatively weak recently, with limited gains and significant retracements. It's not suitable for hedging anymore.

What other altcoins in the Bitcoin ecosystem can be hedged against Bitcoin? Recommendations are welcome.

Last Sunday's gamma level indicated that most of the negative gamma positions expired after January 3, and the market may face a new adjustment. The competition for BTC's 100K remains the concentrated area of negative gamma, while the negative gamma area for ETH has moved up in price. Considering the exchange rate, it seems that there is an independent strong trend to expect. The situation for SOL is more complex; after January 3, the negative gamma area has expanded and is relatively balanced, indicating that a period of intense price volatility may be imminent. The key oscillation area may be between 190 and 220. Overall, implied volatility (IV) is declining across the board, and shorting volatility yields good returns. It is safer to sell far-dated options widely. #加密市场调整 $BTC $SOL $ETH

The current gamma level shows that Bitcoin has concentrated negative gamma at 100K, while Ethereum has overall negative gamma, with the only positive gamma option expiring today. Solana's negative gamma is concentrated around the 188 price level, and it should be experiencing significant fluctuations around this price. Overall, it appears to be a consolidation phase lacking upward momentum, suitable for shorting volatility and opening sales. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Yesterday, a massive number of options expired, setting a record, and prices fell accordingly.

The effects of the weekend and the rollover combined led to a certain price pullback.

However, from the perspective of volatility, long-term options are experiencing an increase, and traders' bullish sentiment remains relatively strong.

The Trump administration's crypto policy is friendly, and the future looks promising. Therefore, strategically, we can be more optimistic.

Tactically, we need to be cautious of pullback pressure and the impact of black swans. There is a high possibility of pausing interest rate cuts in January 2025, which could trigger a crash.

Therefore, selling covered calls at high points while buying double put options in deep out-of-the-money positions as insurance can effectively provide a safety net.

If you're afraid of missing out on significant gains, you can stealthily buy deep out-of-the-money bull spread call options in the long term.

Out-of-the-money options require a small investment but can achieve significant results. They are an excellent hedging tool.

The huge negative gamma positions are all expiring today, and the future long and short directions need to be reshuffled.

From the data, the overall implied volatility (iv) of ETH is rising, reflecting traders' bullish sentiment for the future.

Once volatility rises again, if 5000 serves as the watershed, selling at 5000 and buying at 6000 for protection can allow for a short volatility position in the long term in June.

Recently, 4000 remains a significant threshold.

For those optimistic about a short-term upward impact, selling puts can be an option. If it drops below, it can be exercised.

It requires a bit of faith.

The current price of sol is located in a concentrated area of negative gamma, and recent volatility has shown a general decline. There is a high probability of a pullback. We will verify whether the prediction is accurate in the next one or two days. The oscillation between 195 and 210 is expected to intensify. Once it goes down, there is no obvious positive gamma support. The volatility at the strike price of 150 is rising. I estimate that everyone should buy insurance around this price level. $SOL

The market is warming up after Christmas, so don't take it lightly. Tonight to the 27th is the highlight.

On the 27th, 40% of the options expired, and the transfer of positions has begun, with a clear drop in volatility.

The price is likely to go lower.

You can ambush the long-term bull and bear spreads at low prices, based on your own judgment.

I prefer to ambush bull spreads with Bitcoin and ambush bear spreads with Ethereum.

Bitcoin's long bull market is already doomed, and MicroStrategy has joined the Nasdaq index. In the future, all index ETFs will be equipped with Bitcoin concept stocks.

US stocks and Bitcoin are deeply bound, which is good.

Going long on Bitcoin and shorting on Shanzhai is a long-term slow bull strategy. $BTC $ETH $SOL

ETH/BTC exchange rate rises, a good sign

ETH is stable, and Bitcoin is falling. You can exchange Ethereum and other altcoins for Bitcoin, which is very good.

After exchanging Bitcoin, opening a delivery contract for hedging is equivalent to fixing the value of Bitcoin, which can be held for a long time.

In addition, I will share another method of risk-free arbitrage for sol.

The annualized return of sol pledge is about 7. The annualized return of opening a contract for hedging is about 10.
The overall annualized return is 17.

Through the bull and bear markets, the risk-free interest rate is the foundation, and stable happiness. I wish you all good fortune.

Share a double selling optimization strategy that I've been using frequently recently.

Use call ratio instead of selling calls, and use put ratio instead of selling puts.
This combination yields higher returns than an iron condor.

However, the risk is still infinite, but the probability of winning is higher.
At the same time, the threshold for ddh can be set wider, significantly reducing the probability of triggering.

I haven't found any drawbacks yet. Haha. It should have poor tail risk resilience. But with ddh, there's no need to worry too much.

This combination also offers many options for rebalancing.

For example, after a sharp rise, you can close the profitable leg while continuing to hold the losing leg, waiting for it to expire worthless.
Or, you can directly add to the profitable leg, converting it into a regular bull spread or bear spread.

It can also be converted into an options grid, physical exercise, or covered call.
+theta is beneficial for positions, yielding positive returns at all times.
-vega reduces volatility, which is advantageous for positions.

The volatility term structure of Bitcoin allows for Delta-neutral arbitrage by selling high and buying low volatility.
The Ethereum market is in a bearish trend, with not many opportunities.
Therefore, going long on Bitcoin and shorting Ethereum can also be a robust hedging strategy. $BTC $ETH

Recently, going long on Bitcoin and shorting altcoins has yielded good returns.

However, choosing altcoins can be a bit difficult due to their high volatility.

I do have an advanced method that you can refer to.

Go long on Bitcoin, short a basket of altcoins, while also conducting manual selection of altcoins.

Refer to the method of index compilation, using the performance over the past three months for a comprehensive evaluation.

Select those that have reached new highs and maintained high positions, and exclude those that have reached new highs but then declined. Maintain a dynamic balance of the altcoin portfolio.

This way, you can create a hedged portfolio of around 10 coins.

In the long run, the returns are quite good.

Considerable hedging options include coins like SOL, SUI, ENS, APT, STX, ORDI, DOGE, and so on.

This combination is convenient for holding positions in a unified account, and in addition to hedging, it can also be used as margin to open options, allowing for the pursuit of long-term strategies without missing out on significant directional trends.