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Last week's panic was mainly driven by Powell's hawkish remarks.
Powell's comments and the latest dot plot indicate that the interest rate cut range may be adjusted downward next year, leading to a wave of panic selling in the market. Looking ahead, there isn't much important data this week, and after all, these two days are also Christmas, and Americans are going on holiday.
The first chart below shows the price fluctuations of Bitcoin before and after Christmas. Generally speaking, based on historical trends, Bitcoin usually rises after Christmas. Moreover, according to the second chart from Coinglass, the quarterly return rate of Bitcoin is typically quite good in the fourth quarter, so I believe everyone can look forward to it. #比特币市场波动观察

A key factor for the recent lackluster market performance is the tightening of capital liquidity⬇️
Last Saturday, when the market rebounded to a high, the circulation of USDT unexpectedly decreased by over 700 million, which directly caused the market to shift from rising to falling📉. Following that, yesterday, the supply of USDT decreased by another 88 million, leading to continued market sluggishness😢.
Today, the situation has improved, with the supply of USDT increasing by 112 million, indicating a rebound in capital liquidity, and the market has also shown a degree of recovery📈.
However, whether capital liquidity can sustain this warming trend still requires observation of subsequent market performance. Tomorrow is Christmas Eve, so I suggest everyone enjoy their food and drinks and relax for the holiday🎄.

"Rich Dad Poor Dad" author Robert Kiyosaki posted on X: The global economic collapse has already begun. Europe and the United States are both in recession. Is the Great Depression approaching?
⚠️ Here's the key: he stated that regardless of the economic direction, gold, silver, and Bitcoin retain their value.
"For many, an economic collapse is the best time to get rich. I plan to become richer. I also hope you become richer and smarter." Let's encourage each other~

Stay calm and don't act rashly…
The cryptocurrencies you've laid out will eventually see a rise.
Your task is not to chase those that have already increased, but to hold on to those that have yet to take off.

My investment mindset has always been firm: the worst-case scenario is just going to zero.
If I can accept this, what else in the crypto world can harm me?

What is human nature?
Human nature is to think Bitcoin is too expensive during a bear market, believing it won't multiply many times, and thus turn to buy altcoins.
When Bitcoin starts to surge, they regret not going all-in on Bitcoin and become skeptical of the altcoin season.
Finally, when altcoins start to dance wildly, they have already sold them…

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This round of the bull market seems to be a microcosm of the history of cryptocurrency, which may be difficult for newcomers who have just entered the market in the past two years to understand: why haven't the old investors who entered the market in 2017 achieved financial freedom, and why haven't those who bought BTC in 2014 and 2015 reached financial independence?
Everything you have experienced recently, especially the fluctuations in the past few days, is exactly what these old investors have gone through over the years.
From the results, if you held onto BTC worth several thousand dollars, BNB from 2017, and various other coins until now, you should theoretically have achieved freedom. But the problem is, many people didn’t hold on; it’s not just the old investors who couldn’t hold on in the past, but even with ETH in the past few days, how long could you persist? This is the same principle, the same psychological state.
#市场调整後的机会？
In the early days, let alone ETH and altcoins, we couldn’t even guarantee that BTC wouldn’t go to zero. Now, at least we have BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs as support, along with Trump’s policy endorsement; what more could we ask for?
In this context, if you can’t even hold onto ETH, don’t mention the major events we experienced like 312 and 519.
Looking at the entire history of cryptocurrency, it cannot be said that simply holding on will make you rich. Some people have held onto EOS until now, while others have gone to zero. But one thing is certain: those who trade frequently and lack patience will definitely not achieve great returns in the cryptocurrency market. The ones who can truly hold on are those with determination and perseverance.

The bull market isn't over yet, don't rush to jump off a building!
The logic of this cycle is actually very simple: Bitcoin is steadily rising, while altcoins show periodic trends, rising and falling in waves. Each time an altcoin experiences a big surge, it often performed modestly in the previous cycle.
Specifically, the retail investors' liquidation is very thorough, and the weekly K-line is relatively stable, with the market's narrative theme gradually becoming clear.
Therefore, in this wave of the market, we should continue to pick up low-priced chips, maintain patience, and quietly wait for the final madness of next year's bull market.
Remember, the climax of a bull market is often the craziest moment!#比特币市场波动观察

《How Leeks Become Leeks》
1⃣️Over-leveraging and full position trading: Many people love to use high leverage and trade their entire account, while the margin in their account is insufficient to support such high-risk operations, which can easily lead to liquidation.
2⃣️Greed or failure to cut losses: After making a profit, due to greed, one is unwilling to take profits in a timely manner and always wants to earn more, resulting in watching profits evaporate or even return to zero. Alternatively, during losses, one may cling to hope and fail to cut losses in time, leading to increased losses.
3⃣️Position management errors: Investing all funds into a single trade when opening a position; once trapped, even if other potential opportunities are identified, there are no extra funds available, which is like putting all eggs in one basket.
4⃣️Blindly following trends: Seeing others make huge profits through high leverage can impulsively drive one to seek quick riches, and without thinking, they follow in with their entire account, which is often the starting point of falling into difficulties.

How to seize the opportunity of a surge? A few suggestions:
1⃣️ Stay calm and don't be influenced by market emotions: The ups and downs of the market are normal phenomena. What’s important is to remain calm and avoid panic selling during market downturns.
2⃣️ Be ready to welcome a rebound at any time: After a washout, once the market releases positive signals, a rebound may arrive quickly.
3⃣️ Pay attention to promising cryptocurrencies: After a large-scale washout, some promising cryptocurrencies may demonstrate remarkable upward momentum.
#加密市场回调
A washout is often a preparation for the next surge, so don't leave the market easily, and don't miss the upcoming opportunities. Only by being prepared can you seize the initiative when a surge arrives.

The altcoin market is bleeding profusely, with many coins experiencing declines of over 40%, and market share falling below 10%.

Firstly, there is still a glimmer of hope: the bull market has not ended, external capital has not yet flooded in on a large scale, and the prices of assets in the market have not reached unbelievable highs; the cycle and space of the bull market have not fully unfolded.
Let's talk about the recent market dynamics: this round of altcoin launches has been exceptionally rapid, almost in sync with Bitcoin, especially the older coins that are less held by retail investors, which have performed the most actively. Meanwhile, some previously popular altcoins have not shown significant increases.

This seems to be a carefully orchestrated scheme by the market makers, quickly creating the illusion of a frantic bull market, and then swiftly suppressing it to harvest funds in the market, primarily targeting those who consider themselves clever.

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The performance of the market in the past two days has really returned to the pre-liberation era overnight.
Since Trump won the election, the performance of US stocks and cryptocurrencies has been good, but Powell's remarks yesterday caused the market to plummet instantly.

In the early morning of the 19th, US time, the FOMC interest rate decision announced a rate cut, which was originally a good thing, but Powell's remarks after the rate cut brought a shock to the market.
This time, the latest dot plot was also updated, which can help predict the Fed's future quarterly and annual rate cut plans. The latest dot plot shows that the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 has been reduced from 4 to 2, which is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the market.
Rate cuts usually mean the release of liquidity, and the financial industry will benefit first, and it will also promote some consumer industries.
Originally, everyone was still immersed in the joy of rate cuts and the Nasdaq breaking through 21,000 points, but they were poured with a basin of cold water by Powell. The Dow Jones Index has even fallen ten consecutive times.

So what is the connection between the decline of the Dow Jones Index and Trump?
First of all, the plunge the night before was undoubtedly caused by Powell's hawkish remarks. But in fact, the Dow Jones has been falling for many consecutive days.
An important reason for the decline of the Dow Jones is Trump's opposing party, the Democratic Party. Most of the supporters of the Democratic Party come from heavy industries such as oil. Most of these old money industries are in the Dow Jones, so the Dow Jones has a relatively small bubble.
But after Trump took office this year, stocks that were contrary to his policies were affected, and funds turned to Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Nasdaq and S&P 500 are mostly technology stocks, and the bubble is relatively large, and Bitcoin is also part of it.
Since November 6, Trump's policies have driven the rise of Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Trump advocates tax cuts, stimulates the economy, and advocates quantitative easing, which makes everyone very excited.
So it can be said that Lao Bao taught everyone a lesson yesterday. The epic plunge, just looking at the index, fell by three points, which is rare in history.
But the good news is that Powell's term of office is still 2 years, and Trump has 4 years. He will move into the White House on January 20.
The first 100 days of the new president's inauguration is the high-frequency period of his policy. There are rumors in the market that Trump may appoint a new Treasury Secretary to check and balance Powell (By the way, Powell was personally selected by Trump when he took office👀 #美联储放鹰

This fat penguin is really popular recently!

$BNB 's HODLer benefits are here again. Recently, $PENGU was airdropped. I wish you all a happy Christmas🎄
😜Holding BNB is really delicious

But today I want to discuss with you, will this new narrative chapter of NFT and NFT+Token economy be the mainstream password of this round?

🌟 1. Narrative aspect
@trencheslegend has firmly occupied the top of Web3 IP platform! In terms of brand building and revenue growth, Penguin has surpassed BAYC and continues to break the circle successfully.
At present, only Azuki and doodles, which have not issued coins, can barely follow Penguin in the bloody battles in the past three years, and behind them are countless corpses of zero pictures. 💪🐧

🌍 2. Airdrop:
The $PENGU airdrop covered almost all the medium- and long-term users of EVM and Solana, and the number of on-chain currency holding addresses was close to 450,000, which is a very beautiful and rare number.
Although there were many sellers after the airdrop, airdrops are a common way in this cycle, and they can better break the circle + expand the community! 💫

💰 3. Valuation
The current market value of 3.2 billion US dollars is not low, but as a leading project spanning two bull and bear cycles, PENGU's valuation is still more reasonable than some L2, which is completely unused but still has a valuation of tens of billions (who is it, everyone DDDD)🎢✨

🛠️ 4. Ecological growth
The L2 public chain behind PENGU is very solid with the support of more than 500 million US dollars in sales of penguin physical toys. At the same time, holding PENGU also increases the expectation of future ecological airdrops. This virtuous cycle brings more imagination to the project! 🚀🔗

📈 Summary
If the beginning of this round of bull market is the wealth effect created by BTC and meme, which attracted new capital to join, referring to the previous round, then NFT and decentralized IP may be able to create more markets for new web2 users! 💎🐧
BNB holder🆓 airdropped a fat penguin~! Great news!

Recently, there have been voices saying that $SOL is difficult to turn around, and I hold a reserved attitude towards this. Although SOL has performed poorly recently, this situation is unlikely to last long. The psychological barrier of 200 dollars is unlikely to be effectively broken, and even if it is broken, 180 dollars is a strong support point. Within the range of 180 to 200 dollars, the market may wash out some weak hands, and then the price will rebound quickly. With the third interest rate cut on December 18, a new wave of funds is expected to flow into the market, at which point altcoins will also welcome the next round of rising market.
#市场全线看牛？

Recently, there has been a surge in altcoins, especially a certain token whose price increase is astonishing, even surprising those who are indifferent. Rumor has it that a mysterious big shot is making significant purchases in the crypto market, and as soon as he makes a move, market funds quickly follow, pushing the price of the altcoins he buys to new highs.
Observing the K-line chart of COW, it has nearly doubled in just a few days. Who exactly is this mysterious big shot? What recent trading actions has he taken?

This big shot is — the Comrade Trump.

Recently, Trump's crypto fund WLFI purchased a new RWA token — Ondo, one of this year's new coins, and as soon as he bought Ondo, its price quickly skyrocketed. But what is most shocking is the COW token. COW is actually a decentralized Swap platform, similar to $UNI and RUI. Trump only bought some altcoins through the COW platform, which triggered a crazy price increase. It is reported that even Vitalik is a regular visitor to COW.
So, is it still worth buying COW now? From the 4-hour K-line chart, it surged from $0.38 to nearly $1, but a pullback occurred at the top of COW, and currently, the 4-hour level shows signs of bearishness. The market is unpredictable, and not every wave of行情 is worth following. Things that come quickly also leave quickly, and everyone understands this principle. It seems that there are signs of major players offloading COW, and buying now may result in being trapped.

When it comes to sales ability, Musk is undoubtedly the king of the crypto world, there is no doubt about that. But recently, I found that Trump's sales ability even surpasses Musk's. Rich people make money so effortlessly; they just need to click lightly, and retail investors will follow suit madly.
Everyone can follow the official X of the WLFI project; all of Trump's crypto funds come from the fundraising of this project. The most unexpected thing is that the largest investor in this project is Sun Yuchen, who has injected over 30 million dollars into it (you can check Sun's beautiful photos on this X). Their purchasing plans will be announced on Twitter; if you are a supporter of Trump, you might consider buying into his fund, as the tokens in the fund are fixed, just like commemorative coins, and do not possess much speculative behavior.

Friends often ask me, how to break the order if it is stuck?
In the investment market, unwinding is a challenge that leeks often face. As an old leek who has experienced many rounds of bull markets, I have some experience in unwinding.
1⃣️If it is stuck at a high position: you can wait for the market to rebound and reduce your position in time; or sell part of it when the price rises, reduce your position and reduce losses. If the market changes suddenly, you must stop loss decisively and consider reverse operations in time to recover losses.
2⃣️If it is stuck at the middle price: don't rush to cut meat, stay calm, observe market trends, and wait for the right time to reduce your position. At the same time, use technical analysis to find opportunities to increase your position to make up for previous losses.
3⃣️If it is stuck at a low position: Patience is the key. Look for opportunities to unwind when the market pulls back, or reduce your position appropriately when the price is low.
In short, as the market trend changes, you must decisively take stop-loss measures and reverse operations in time to recover losses. Remember, being flexible in responding to market changes and staying calm are the keys to unwinding.
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It now seems unlikely that the collective surge of altcoins will be repeated. The number of altcoins has skyrocketed from just a few dozen in the past to several thousand now, and the market environment and logic have undergone tremendous changes.
Therefore, what we are facing is only a structural market: some altcoins may achieve several times or even dozens of times growth, while others may always be merely tools used for harvesting retail investors. The past strategy of buying a bunch of coins and waiting for a general rise no longer seems effective.

This week's focus is undoubtedly the FOMC on the 19th, with the market generally predicting a more than 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, which is a positive sign and could likely trigger a rally. The previously strong-performing altcoins are worth re-examining, as in this round of the market without new hot topics to stimulate it, funds often rotate in speculation. After the AI sector, the market may once again focus on strong-performing altcoins, such as $ACT , $PEPE , $SOL , DOGE, etc.

Next, we need to consider the so-called 'Christmas rally.' If the cryptocurrencies you hold have increased significantly by the end of the month, you should consider taking profits at the right time and wait to buy back during a significant pullback. If you are not skilled in swing trading, holding steady is also a good choice. Blindly trading may increase your costs. #圣诞行情预测