This is the market cap of TOTAL 3
Weekly chart

For who don't know TOTAL 3 shows the market cap of all the Altcoins and stable coins excluding BTC and ETH

So it mainly shows us the strength that Altcoins are taking despite the market cap of the stable coin (USDT,USDC..)
Later I'll show you a chart where the market cap of the stable coins is excluded.

As you can see since the last low was formed that allowed me to trace the lowest point of the Fibonacci Retracement (level 0 = 463.81 B), the market cap's level respected all the subsequent Fibonacci levels going to react precisely on the 1.414 level thus exceeding 1 trillion market cap.

What I expect now is a return to 0.786 Fibonacci or even 0.618 Fibonacci to then be able to go back to see a recovery of the market cap and then see the Altcoins reach new higher price levels again.

Let's wait to see what happens in the next few weeks

I wish you and your families a Merry Christmas!

May it be a Christmas full of happiness and awareness.
Awareness of the path as a trader and/or investor you are traveling.

May it be a day where you can get your head off the charts and dedicate yourself to your family or your passions.

The market can wait.
This is also awareness.

Knowing when is the right time to operate and when is the right time to enjoy life and loved ones.
The markets will always be here waiting for you.

And if you have a moment of free time, stop and contemplate the beauty of your life.
Because everyone has beauty in their life.
Everyone has a reason to be happy and to be grateful for.
Don't be overwhelmed by negative thoughts and sadness.

Do you want to change your life?
Well, already knowing what you want to do is a great act of awareness and already a reason to be happy because you know what you have to change in your life to achieve your goal.

And if you follow me you know that I always try to give you ideas and interesting news to help you on this path.

I'm planning a lot of new things to bring you here for the new year.
A new more detailed and focused programming not only on the news and my thoughts on it, but also on an operational part of trading and investments that we can follow together.
For those who want to take action.

In the meantime,
enjoy Christmas and the last days of this 2024.

Best wishes to everyone

Without risk there is no reward

Risk is what everything revolves around in investments.

Risk management is the most important part not only in defining an operational strategy,

Whether it is very short-term such as scalping,

Or that it is medium or long term, such as swing/positioning trade or investments lasting years.

Risk management is also an important part of our psychology.

What is our risk appetite?

Basically, if the trading operation we have run goes wrong, how much are we willing to lose?

What is the percentage of capital we want to allocate to a given operation?

Obviously there is no general answer to these questions, because everything is based on our mentality, on our psychology, on how much we are willing to put at risk, on how well we sleep at night knowing that we have a more or less high % of risk on the market.

Finding your % of risk depending on the type of operations we want to do is the key on the financial markets.

And how is this one?

Studying,
Gaining experience in the market,
Knowing yourself,
Learning about your risk appetite.

Do you know who really understood and appreciated Bitcoin?

Those who already adopted it and talked about it with conviction years ago, when its price was a few tens of dollars and a few hundred dollars.

Now it is easy to preach it because it has become much more expensive, it has become more and more in the attention of the media and the masses.

TV talk about it, the news talk about it, comedians talk about it, public figures who have nothing to do with crypto talk about it.

For better or for worse, you hear about it more and more often over the years.

But 10 years ago is more, the situation was very different.

Then you had to be much more convinced and on the piece, because you were really part of a 'niche'.

You were really part of a movement that firmly believed in something that was mocked by everything and everyone.

Not like now where we have BlackRock advertising on it.

Don't get me wrong, mass adoption is good and we'll want to get to this for years.

But it is thanks to those who firmly believed in Bitcoin when it was worth little and were not considered by those who rely on the markets if we are here today.

Professional traders have learned to manage emotions and know the market dynamics. Sometimes the best thing is to do nothing but the masses will always follow FUD and FOMO

Many think this is bearish news for the market.
Many think that the FED does not want to buy Bitcoin. But the truth is quite different.

The FED cannot buy Bitcoin.

As stated by Jerome Powell, president of the FED, the institution is not authorized to own Bitcoin and is not considering legal changes in this regard.

This was also reiterated in various posts on X where it is emphasized that the FED does not have the mandate or the legal capacity to hold cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

This does not mean that the USA will not be able to buy Bitcoin.
They are different things.
The USA through the Treasury can hold Bitcoin and Trump has repeatedly stated that the Bitcoin reserve strategy will proceed.

So dont worry,
You can't be more bullish than now

I am increasingly convinced that the USA will make the Bitcoin strategic reserve.

The signs that make me think this are many and among them there is this news where Trump's signature is potentially enough to make everything a reality.

As I have been repeating for some time both on X and here on my previous posts, Trump is setting up a strongly crypto friendly government and is ready to leave anti-crypto senators at home including Gary Gensler who in recent years has created several problems for Bitcoin.

2025 is expected to be a year full of positivity for Bitcoin.

I'm not just referring to the price that could still rise, even if sooner or later the bear market will return.
But I’m very bullish compared to the adoption of Bitcoin by governments and large multinationals.
I'm very bullish about seeing Bitcoin being globally recognized as a true store of value like gold.

Meanwhile in Italy..

From 2026 the taxation on capital gains generated by cryptocurrencies will rise to 33%.

A legalized theft.

While the USA is thinking of a tax cut and a strategic reserve in Bitcoin, other countries such as Italy and Europe in general through the MiCA are instead trying to cut the legs of this sector.

They are trying to limit the adoption of crypto and make the development of this sector impossible.
See for example Tether with the possible delist of usdt from exchanges in Europe because they did not want to (rightly) adhere to the MiCA rules.

I'm sorry to say it but Europe is a desolate land where efforts are made not to grow a sector that will be the future of the economy.

If you haven't noticed yet, the world is heading towards an institutional adoption of Bitcoin.

Not only investment companies like BlackRock that are investing billions in their ETFs but also governments around the world are buying Bitcoin and even the USA is thinking of making a strategic value reserve in Bitcoin.

We know that if BlackRock moves it is because it knows where it wants to go and it knows that it can reach its goal.

Do you want an example?
There were proposals for an ETF on Bitcoin before BlackRock made it and they have always been denied. As soon as BlackRock moved, the spot ETF was approved.

So always be careful how BlackRock moves and always try to understand what can be the final purpose.

Excellent point of view.
American debt and the price of Bitcoin go hand in hand.

Bitcoin is seen as a store of value and where do investors go to secure their money in uncertain times and in times when the currency continues to devalue more and more due to inflation?
In the assets considered a store of value, so today we can finally say that Bitcoin is on par with gold.

And the printing of new money?
Printing new money creates new inflation as the money becomes less and less scarce as there is more and more in circulation. As a result, Bitcoin will rise in price as the heavily devalued currency will be invested in an asset that contains its value and indeed increases it.

I won't explain who Michael Saylor is because you can find it written everywhere. However,
I will explain to you what it means to own 2% of the Bitcoin supply.
But above all I will explain what it means to have bought 2% of the supply of Bitcoin by leveraging the balance sheet in order to borrow money in convertible bonds.

Saylor through MicroStrategy raised capital through convertible debt issues and share sales. For example, in March 2024, the company raised 500 million dollars through a convertible debt offer, with the proceeds destined to the purchase of Bitcoin.

This method allows MSTR to obtain funds at relatively low rates to invest in BTC

Michael Saylor has repeatedly said jokingly that MicroStrategy will continue to buy Bitcoin at the top of the market, this is cause he has often found himself buying large amounts of BTC at times when the average price was high.

As I explained in my other previous post, the price of Bitcoin has always been subject to market cycles: consolidation phases, bull and bear market.

Now that we are in the bull market we are all happy and everything is beautiful.
But when the trend reverses and we go towards a bearish market, what will happen?
MicroStrategy has an unrealized profit of billions of dollars and a debt with which it bought Bitcoin just as big to repay.
We also know about the silent head-to-head between MicroStrategy and BlackRock on who owns more Bitcoin.
And we know that historically BlackRock has never been number 2 in the market.

If for any reason the price of BTC were to collapse,would MicroStrategy sell?

Saylor would say no, but also at the cost of bankrupting MSTR?
if the price of Bitcoin collapses, the company could find itself with fewer resources to cover its financial obligations, increasing the risk of default or having to sell BTC at lower prices than desired.

In addition, this sale would involve many other things: collapse of MSTR shares, reversal of market sentiment, loss of credibility and reputation of Saylor and his company, domino effect ->other frightened investors would start selling in FUD

Bitcoin has proven to date the best asset on which an investor could bet.
In just one year it's up 133%.

If we look at its history, despite the highs and lows of the price over the months, despite the bear markets passed over the years, Bitcoin has continued to grow in price and reach new ATH halving after halving.

Even this year the first ATH was made before the halving, pushed by BlackRock and the approval of the spot ETF.

What does this have to make us understand?

Surely it makes us understand that Bitcoin is a real store of value.
Those who bought in the past nowadays are in profit.
And following its history if it holds its positions exceeding the bear market it will return exponentially in profit.

Because yes,
Bitcoin will go into bear market sooner or later, because it is an asset that follows market cycles.

Bear market phases, consolidation phases, bull market phases and history has been repeated since Bitcoin was born.

So I give you some advice:
short or medium-term trading is a difficult and dangerous job if you don't know what you're doing.
If you want to invest in the long term and you want to be calm, HODL. Don't sell.
Hold on to your belief when the bear market arrives and you will probably see your positions in drawdown for a long time, too long. But after these periods the bull market will return, taking Bitcoin higher than before.
And then at that moment you will be grateful for not having sold, for not having given up and for having seen a new dawn rise.

To all the Italians listening, I think this will be the only post in Italian that I will do because I want to talk about a topic that affects our beautiful country exclusively.

After an unlikely and crazy proposal to tax crypto capital gains at 42%, the Honorable Centemero has decided to take up the sword of the crypto champion and fight this proposal (a bill made by the same government colleagues), declaring that he wants to lower taxation and do justice.

You can find the result in the table below:
- From 2025, taxation on capital gains will remain at 26% but the no-tax area for capital gains under €2,000 will be eliminated.
What does this mean?
It means that we will pay 26% like this year, but it will also be paid under €2,000.
Have you received an AirDrop and sold it making a profit of €100?
You pay a 26% tax rate
Did you make a profit of €20 with a small trading account?
You pay a 26% tax rate
Did you pay €1.20 for coffee using Bitcoin?
You pay a 26% tax rate

-From 2026, the tax on capital gains will rise to 33%

It is yet another mockery by politics that as always serves the interests of everyone except the citizens and the country itself.

Those with large amounts of capital will go and declare in a foreign country,
The retails that cash out with €100? Or with 10k?
For amounts of that kind, it is not worth declaring abroad and they will find themselves seeing their profit eaten up between taxation and accountant costs

Not to mention the data analyst company in case they cannot trace the load prices at which they purchased

But what is the purpose of all this?
It is to cut the legs off a sector that is ‘spreading’
It is to block the development of one of the sectors of the future
It is to try to block the adoption of currencies and investments that are outside the control of the ECB
It is to want to make the wrong choice at the right time by continuing the destruction of a country that could have had everything, but has decided to have nothing more.

Ethereum saw the largest inflow via ETF yesterday
surpassing the inflows of ETF on BTC

This is what can happen in my opinion by looking at the ETH daily chart

The price overcoming a very important price zone going to break upwards, I expecte a possible small retracement of the price until it reaches the imbalance zone inside the last displacement around $3530 / $3460 usdt.

That will be the area where I'll open a long on futures ETH/USDT and/or I'll buy more ETH spot to add in my wallet mid-long term.

As always,
this is not financial advice - NFA
do your own research - DYOR

Congrats to the European Commission.
They are doing a great job and we have to give it to them.
They are working very hard to make the European Union a wasteland for crypto investors and for the companies that would like to operate on this continent.
Thank you EU for protecting investors from being able to have yeld on USDC

Europe is cutting itseld off from a market that is already expanding and will be increansingly expanding for the next few years.

Countries like USA are planning a Bitcoin reserve and want to make the United States the world capital for crypto.

While Europe is trying in every way to regulate negatively a world that needs incentives and not bureaucratic limits among other nonsensical things.

The only sense is to imit the adoption of crypto and not want companies in this sector on their own soil.

Europe will always live in the past and will be left behind on all economic and technological developments if it continues like this.

This makes us understand how important, influential and manipulative the government of the United States is in the world.
For worse and for worse.
Now that Trump has won the elections and has spoken to Zelensky strangely the wills and principles of the Ukrainian president are changing.
Now he is willing to cede territories in order to end the war.
Just as Trump has always argued that it should be done.

What does this have to do with crypto markets? There is only one principle to do with it that all investors and traders should know:

Regardless of which country you come from, you must always know what happens within the United States and what relationships they have with other countries.
Because the American financial market is the most liquid market
it is the market where the most capital moves,
it is the market that dominates all the other markets,
it is the market that all investors look at and move accordingly.

And the crypto? If you hadn't noticed Trump is putting together a government full of pro-Bitcoin politicians.
The future of crypto has always been in the USA and from January it will be even more so.

Trump is creating a task force for the new American government where all components are in favor of Bitcoin and crypto.

News like this is positive in the long term for the crypto market.

However, this does not mean that it will be reflected on the price in the coming years, because the price is determined by liquidity on the market and not by news.
When the price of an asset moves on the basis of the news it is called FOMO, where you will then only see a manipulation of the price to reach important liquidity areas, nothing more and nothing less.

This means that Bitcoin will follow its cycle like any market. He will have his bullrun period as he will have his bear market period again even with a government extremely in favor.

So what will change?
It will change the way we see Bitcoin and crypto.

It will change the legislation on this.

It will change the adoption that will be greater

The political and legislative wars against crypto will change.

The world will be more unbalanced to protect Bitcoin than to fight it as they have done in recent years.

Bitcoin will hit 100k today? 👀

Another bullish news for the crypto world.

I think that the promises that Trump made in the election campaign regarding a friendly administration towards Bitcoin and that it will not hinder the development of crypto can become reality.

How can the fact that the USA could create a store of value in Bitcoin become a reality.

And make the United States become the central pole of crypto development

the capital of crypto.

All this news can only make us think of one thing: we are facing a new era for Bitcoin and for the world of crypto.

The Trump administration is already showing itself in favor of the world of cryptocurrencies without yet being at the White House. Making people think that the election promises that Trump made will be kept.

It's still too early to say but everything makes us think positively.

The safest thing is that we will no longer have a political administration against Bitcoin, in fact Trump is putting pro-Bitcoin people in his administration.

And it makes us think big

Bitcoin could really become the new store of value of the United States.
And why not, it could become an official payment method equal to the dollar on the entire American soil.

And meanwhile BlackRock continues to record record inflow on its etf and Microstrategy buys another $1.75 billion in Bitcoin.

And the price of Bitcoin today has reached a new all-time high.