There was a very accurate pattern that revolved around Bitcoin's halving event where we would see massive growth after the halving. Cyclical patterns are valid and true until they are not.

The halving pattern is now in question because the market is no longer the same. Some people are still following this pattern, this old map, but the pattern broke even before the halving event.

Bitcoin produced a new All-Time High in 2024, before the halving, this has never been seen before. A new ATH right before the halving.

Bitcoin's dynamics changed completely even before the halving, which is what we are seeing now. The institutions changed the market.

The big players and Michael Saylor changed the market dynamics, and Mr. Saylor is about to make another one of his fun moves.

In 2022 the orthodox end of the bear-market happened in June. This was the bottom for Ethereum and also for many of the major projects. This would have been the bottom for Bitcoin also but in November, where the market was set to produce a higher low compared to June, one giant whale made a move that produced a lower low, and thus the map was changed once more.

This lower low is a technical double bottom, June 2022 vs November 2022, but this is still something that happened because of one single major force. This same force has been making moves and these moves have been affecting the markets predictable patterns and is making it quite unpredictable.

The halving map can no longer be followed because it already broke down and thus no map can be followed based on historical data.

This happens not only with Bitcoin but all financial assets, all trading pairs; everything in life continues to evolve. We might not be able to predict easily what might happen next but we still have the charts which shows us everything we need to know.

We have two schools of thought right now in the technical analysis world. One says that Bitcoin will grow because it must grow because... Well, because it has to go up.

This school of thought says Bitcoin must grow because it has been sideways for a long time, because in the past, it always grows. But the market has no time limit, the market is not going to die, so the market can grow next week, next year or next month. It doesn't need to happen now, nor yesterday nor today just so that someone's beliefs or ideas are met. We know how the market is doing by looking at the charts, and based on its behavior we can make educated predictions as to where prices are most likely headed next.

The other school of thought uses data to make its predictions and ignores any assumptions based on how the market was behaving ten years ago. In the past we had no spot ETFs, no giants were playing, it was a completely different game.

Miners selling would crash the market without a doubt and a new bear market would be present as soon as they decide to sell. Present day, miners selling is just an opportunity for a whale to buy Bitcoins in bulk, maybe even at a cheaper price compared to the market rate.

We have two long-term moving averages plotted on the chart: MA200 and EMA144. These are about to be tested both.

Michael Saylor's next move is not a bullish one, he is about to secure some profits.

Thanks a lot for your support.

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, more than 30,000 Bitcoins have been transferred to Binance earlier today...

In a previous article, we mentioned the best case scenario and the idea of ignoring the worst case scenario, this can be a mistake. The truth is that Bitcoin, the Cryptocurrency market, tends to surprise, always, either on the bullish or bearish side. Regardless of what happens, it is always wise to consider all scenarios.

The altcoins are correcting below our baseline, which we defined as the price level at which these projects traded around January 2024. The truth is that most altcoins are going back to October 2023 price levels. This is the same price at which the market traded before the major 2023/24 bullish wave; after the long consolidation phase.

Some altcoins did even worse and went lower to break below their June 2023 low and others broke down even further, including big and highly recognized projects, and crashed below their May/June 2022 low reaching new All-Time Lows. Bitcoin is currently trading at the same price it traded back in April/March 2024; very high by all standards.

The higher it trades, and the longer it takes to drop, the stronger the strength of the bearish move. This is called bearish consolidation, which in turn is a distribution phase. The distribution phase is termed so because the big players and large Bitcoin holders distribute their coins to the rest of the market.

Just as a long six months bullish consolidation (accumulation) phase led to a massive bullish rise. In reverse, a long six months bearish consolidation (distribution) phase can lead to a massive bearish crash.

Bitcoin grew just like certain altcoins, it did better than most. Only a few projects grew more than Bitcoin in terms of previous past action. Meaning, only a few projects moved to hit new All-Time Highs. It was Bitcoin and these few. The rest produced a strong wave in late 2023, others minimum growth.

While we know and assume that Bitcoin isn't likely to crash as the altcoins, because of its size and fame, look what happened to Ethereum... And Ethereum is gearing up for another round of the same. The same dynamic where Junk-base is buying billions of Ether to sell to Spot ETF holders at a low price continue. They are accumulating to sell en-mass.

Hope for the best; prepare for the worst.

The best scenario puts Bitcoin at $40,000 as the correction bottom. This can easily still be true.

A stronger correction would send Bitcoin lower toward the $33,000 - $36,000 price range.

A doom scenario and things getting really bad, for whatever reason because things tend to develop always as a surprise, would be Bitcoin between $33,000 and $26,000 on a wick. $26,000 is the price at which Bitcoin traded in October 2023, which is before the final impulse that led to our newest and latest All-Time High of $73,777.

Regardless of the general perception, such a move wouldn't change much in how Bitcoin continues to grow and evolve in the long-term. This can happen if some unforeseen event hits the market. Also because we have about 3 weeks of continued bearish action, which is plenty of time for everything to show up. The least expected scenario is always the one that comes to pass.

There is always good news... The stronger the correction, the stronger the recovery that will follow.

The stronger the panic, the stronger is the lesson that the market participants will learn.

The bigger the shock, the stronger the market reaction and after the recovery happens, more confidence in the system develops and everybody will know for certain, forever that Bitcoin is here to stay.

I am not saying that we will necessarily see 26K but, prepare for the worst... Just in case.