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@Square-Creator-980947c6e
PhD在读，DE Shaw量化交易研究员。主打长线AI量化，少操作、低风险、高回报。4月带丹以来躲过所有瀑布。推特/Ding/公众号jndywj，微博：江南第一稳健。广场文章提供精确的市场分析，模型提供买卖信号。通过我的模型和策略你也可以成为一个优秀的kol和交易员。
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Understand what quantitative analysis and AI are in one article. Mom no longer has to worry about me being cheated (the list of scammers is constantly updated)
Welcome to KOL Assistant, your right-hand man in your cryptocurrency trading journey. I will provide accurate market analysis in the square and internally, and the model provides buy and sell signals to help you make wise investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market. Whether you are a novice or an old leeks or a blogger who already has a certain fan base, by using my models and strategies, you can not only grasp the market dynamics and improve your trading skills, but also gradually build your own influence and become a respected opinion leader, and also become an excellent Dan leader.
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I rarely post updates because I only do long-term (recently it has reached the harvest season), many old followers have also used my model to look at signals and trade by themselves, so I don't need to guide too much.
The orders before the election have recently been taking profits one after another, and for ETH, both contract and spot were completely liquidated yesterday; whether it goes up or down from here has nothing to do with me, the performance was indeed disappointing.
Additionally, this is the benefit of long-term investing; you only need to trade once a month without worrying about any fluctuations in between.
$ETH
The orders before the election have recently been taking profits one after another, and for ETH, both contract and spot were completely liquidated yesterday; whether it goes up or down from here has nothing to do with me, the performance was indeed disappointing.
Additionally, this is the benefit of long-term investing; you only need to trade once a month without worrying about any fluctuations in between.
$ETH
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If you adjust too much, it will bounce; if it bounces too much, you adjust. It's this kind of logic.
The data that came out yesterday was relatively good, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations, which will push back the timing of rate cuts, directly causing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise. This is very unfriendly to the market.
Another point is that the positive outcomes from CES were released yesterday, along with the previous surge being too strong.
You will definitely ask what will happen next. Today, focus on the ADP employment data at 9:15 PM, as this will directly affect tonight's market trend.
$BTC $SOL #加密市场回调 #比特币走势观察 #特朗普上台概念币有哪些？
The data that came out yesterday was relatively good, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations, which will push back the timing of rate cuts, directly causing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise. This is very unfriendly to the market.
Another point is that the positive outcomes from CES were released yesterday, along with the previous surge being too strong.
You will definitely ask what will happen next. Today, focus on the ADP employment data at 9:15 PM, as this will directly affect tonight's market trend.
$BTC $SOL #加密市场回调 #比特币走势观察 #特朗普上台概念币有哪些？
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Recently, in the fluctuating market, both long and short positions can make money, but it's also easy to go in the wrong direction. If you're unsure, it's better to stay in cash and wait for the market. Next, I will discuss the key points to focus on this week.
The first thing is the Global Consumer Technology Electronics Show, where Nvidia and AMD are set to release new products, especially keep an eye on Nvidia.
The second thing is the non-farm payrolls in December and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting, paying attention to whether the Fed will cut interest rates in the first quarter and by how much.
The third thing is to observe the capital flow after Wall Street returns from the holidays, and which direction they want to take.
$SOL $AR $BTC #比特币诞生16周年 #BIO开盘 #SUI创新高 #AIAgent热潮 #比特币走势观察
The first thing is the Global Consumer Technology Electronics Show, where Nvidia and AMD are set to release new products, especially keep an eye on Nvidia.
The second thing is the non-farm payrolls in December and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting, paying attention to whether the Fed will cut interest rates in the first quarter and by how much.
The third thing is to observe the capital flow after Wall Street returns from the holidays, and which direction they want to take.
$SOL $AR $BTC #比特币诞生16周年 #BIO开盘 #SUI创新高 #AIAgent热潮 #比特币走势观察
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Why are you still stealing images, brother?
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The layout is too small, the new project was taken down a few days after launch to modify the rules
Those with strength are not afraid of you changing the rules $BTC
Those with strength are not afraid of you changing the rules $BTC
This new mode is really addictive
Recruiting disciples $BTC
Recruiting disciples $BTC
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This post is to educate everyone about the black swan risk, and the way it is presented is quite unappealing; it doesn’t even attract any traffic. So I have to share another possible black swan event. Although the probability is not as high as the Asian financial crisis, it is definitely something we should be vigilant about. That is the rapid collapse of the U.S. government; this does not refer to the complete disintegration of the American system, but rather the fragmentation of Trump's administration. If you understand Trump's past, you will know that most of his business ventures ended in failure. The last two years of his first term had almost no achievements, with waves of resignations and dismissals, and even some officials left hastily after just a few days in office. This time, he has gathered more arrogant and ambitious individuals around him, which undoubtedly increases the probability of internal conflict. It is expected that this administration will face issues at a much faster rate than the previous one, thus another black swan event in 2025 could be the disintegration of Trump’s administration within its first year. $BTC $T
As 2025 approaches, rather than predicting market trends, let's propose a black swan event prediction: What kind of black swan events might occur next year?
Currently, I believe the most likely black swan event is a currency crisis in developing countries or Asia. We have already seen the US dollar continue to strengthen, and Trump's administration will also support a strong dollar; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, then the dollar will also keep increasing. Here, I will explain the macro logic behind this:
As US Treasury yields rise, global investors will be more willing to purchase these bonds because they offer higher returns, which will siphon off funds from developing countries back to the US. To buy these US Treasuries, investors need to buy dollars, hence the dollar will continue to rise with the increase in yields, and this trend is particularly unfavorable for developing countries. Currently, some developing and even developed countries have seen their currencies significantly depreciate, with currencies like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Korean Won all falling to multi-year lows. Throughout history, several crises involving developing countries, especially those in the late 90s, often began with currency depreciation that then quickly worsened. Sometimes, large multinational companies in these countries issued dollar-denominated bonds, so as the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the debt servicing costs for these companies rise significantly. Therefore, this is undoubtedly a risk that requires attention. I would list this as the top potential black swan for 2025.
The AI sector will also undergo significant changes next year; the growth rate of AI hardware will slow down, but at the same time, AI software is experiencing an explosion. So, for this round of bottom-fishing, you should know what to fish for, right? The investment made last Friday at $LPT is now nearly doubled.
Currently, I believe the most likely black swan event is a currency crisis in developing countries or Asia. We have already seen the US dollar continue to strengthen, and Trump's administration will also support a strong dollar; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, then the dollar will also keep increasing. Here, I will explain the macro logic behind this:
As US Treasury yields rise, global investors will be more willing to purchase these bonds because they offer higher returns, which will siphon off funds from developing countries back to the US. To buy these US Treasuries, investors need to buy dollars, hence the dollar will continue to rise with the increase in yields, and this trend is particularly unfavorable for developing countries. Currently, some developing and even developed countries have seen their currencies significantly depreciate, with currencies like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Korean Won all falling to multi-year lows. Throughout history, several crises involving developing countries, especially those in the late 90s, often began with currency depreciation that then quickly worsened. Sometimes, large multinational companies in these countries issued dollar-denominated bonds, so as the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the debt servicing costs for these companies rise significantly. Therefore, this is undoubtedly a risk that requires attention. I would list this as the top potential black swan for 2025.
The AI sector will also undergo significant changes next year; the growth rate of AI hardware will slow down, but at the same time, AI software is experiencing an explosion. So, for this round of bottom-fishing, you should know what to fish for, right? The investment made last Friday at $LPT is now nearly doubled.
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Reviewing this operation was to take advantage of the Santa rally during Christmas. Now that Christmas is over, it's time to take profits and go short. $BTC
No one should love $FXS more than I do
I casually copied some reef and am waiting to take off
I casually copied some reef and am waiting to take off
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As 2025 approaches, rather than predicting market trends, let's propose a black swan event prediction: What kind of black swan events might occur next year?
Currently, I believe the most likely black swan event is a currency crisis in developing countries or Asia. We have already seen the US dollar continue to strengthen, and Trump's administration will also support a strong dollar; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, then the dollar will also keep increasing. Here, I will explain the macro logic behind this:
As US Treasury yields rise, global investors will be more willing to purchase these bonds because they offer higher returns, which will siphon off funds from developing countries back to the US. To buy these US Treasuries, investors need to buy dollars, hence the dollar will continue to rise with the increase in yields, and this trend is particularly unfavorable for developing countries. Currently, some developing and even developed countries have seen their currencies significantly depreciate, with currencies like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Korean Won all falling to multi-year lows. Throughout history, several crises involving developing countries, especially those in the late 90s, often began with currency depreciation that then quickly worsened. Sometimes, large multinational companies in these countries issued dollar-denominated bonds, so as the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the debt servicing costs for these companies rise significantly. Therefore, this is undoubtedly a risk that requires attention. I would list this as the top potential black swan for 2025.
The AI sector will also undergo significant changes next year; the growth rate of AI hardware will slow down, but at the same time, AI software is experiencing an explosion. So, for this round of bottom-fishing, you should know what to fish for, right? The investment made last Friday at $LPT is now nearly doubled.
Currently, I believe the most likely black swan event is a currency crisis in developing countries or Asia. We have already seen the US dollar continue to strengthen, and Trump's administration will also support a strong dollar; if US Treasury yields continue to rise, then the dollar will also keep increasing. Here, I will explain the macro logic behind this:
As US Treasury yields rise, global investors will be more willing to purchase these bonds because they offer higher returns, which will siphon off funds from developing countries back to the US. To buy these US Treasuries, investors need to buy dollars, hence the dollar will continue to rise with the increase in yields, and this trend is particularly unfavorable for developing countries. Currently, some developing and even developed countries have seen their currencies significantly depreciate, with currencies like the Indian Rupee, Brazilian Real, and Korean Won all falling to multi-year lows. Throughout history, several crises involving developing countries, especially those in the late 90s, often began with currency depreciation that then quickly worsened. Sometimes, large multinational companies in these countries issued dollar-denominated bonds, so as the local currency depreciates against the dollar, the debt servicing costs for these companies rise significantly. Therefore, this is undoubtedly a risk that requires attention. I would list this as the top potential black swan for 2025.
The AI sector will also undergo significant changes next year; the growth rate of AI hardware will slow down, but at the same time, AI software is experiencing an explosion. So, for this round of bottom-fishing, you should know what to fish for, right? The investment made last Friday at $LPT is now nearly doubled.
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Actually, just by looking at my updates, even if I can't eat meat at the same time as my friends with models, I can still have a sip of soup, right? $THETA
Is anyone following? $THETA
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Is this it? 10% off? $BTC
The benefit of quantification is that you don't need to watch the market and can automatically buy the dip.
The benefit of quantification is that you don't need to watch the market and can automatically buy the dip.
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Can you break the five-digit yield and take a look at $XRP
So ruthless, again in first place $XRP
Tearing apart the shorts
Tearing apart the shorts