Analysis of the trend of the cryptocurrency market in 2025. Before discussing this topic, I will explain my views from the three aspects of long-term, medium-term, and short-term.
Long-term: refers to the whole year of 2025. The current market forecast for 2025 is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice, in March and November 2025, and this is a conclusion based on the current information. There will be some unexpected events, such as Trump's tariff increase and re-ignition of inflation. At this time, the Federal Reserve may still have room for maneuvers. In 2025, it will still be in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, which will still benefit the crypto market. It is predicted that Bitcoin will reach around 150,000. On the other hand, it is very reliable and has been said to the outside world that it will push Bitcoin to 150,000. From this perspective, Trump will introduce policies that are beneficial to the crypto market. In addition, the Trump administration + Musk, a cryptocurrency-friendly person, will not cause too many problems in essence.
Medium term: refers to January to March 2025. During this period, the crypto market may have an adjustment period. Bitcoin will fall back to the range of 8.8-7.8. This period is the period when the Federal Reserve has no expectations of any interest rate cuts. The details of Trump's policies will be difficult to implement in the short term. Short term: From now to January 20, during this period, Bitcoin will have a wave of highs to more than 100,000. Among them, there will be emotional expectations for Trump's coming to power, which will push it up. #市场调整後的机会？ $BTC

This week, the Christmas market trend begins. From 21st to 23rd, the market is currently hovering around 9.4. There is a game between long and short positions. The timeline of important events this week is sorted out. The risk aversion sentiment for Christmas is heating up, and the downward trend of the big cake is obvious. Waiting for the direction #比特币市场波动观察 #圣诞行情分析 $BTC

The root cause of this is emotional trading, lacking a plan, unable to hold positions, and stubbornly sticking to losing trades.

Tomorrow, just wait for the red.

Your position is not optimistic; the current overall environment is bearish. The 2900 point next week is dangerous‼️

On the 20th-21st, Bitcoin rebounded to around 9.8 and entered a consolidation phase. What will happen next? 1. The decline from January 17-20 hit a low of 9.2, which is the position where prices started to rise after Trump's victory. This position has institutions and large players entering in significant volumes. Initially, there was a possibility of breaking this level on the 20th, but data falling below expectations halted the downward sentiment, providing support for a reversal. As of the 21st, the rebound has approached 7300 points. The U.S. Congress has passed the government budget bill, so the government will not shut down. Currently, the market is still in a consensus of rebound sentiment, but it is also challenging to continue to rally to 10. Next week is Christmas in the U.S., which may present the following risks: 1. The combination of Christmas and year-end adjustments by institutions and large players may lead to selling and reallocation of profits. 2. The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cut expectations for 2025, and the number of rate cuts in 2025 is uncertain with the new government policy under Trump, which is unfavorable for further rallies. 3. There is a massive amount of trapped positions above 9.9, and clear resistance levels ahead. Currently, it is difficult for large players and institutions to form a buying consensus at the 9.8 level; substantial capital is needed to drive an increase, but such capital is not entering at this level. 4. Many long positions that were exploded in this round of significant declines are now mostly retail investors playing in the market, and new small funds entering make it difficult to push the market up further. 5. Funds that entered since 11.5 have also made significant profits at this price and may sell part of their holdings. 6. Currently, the short positions that were established at high levels have experienced this round of rebound; those who could escape will escape, as it is hard to endure profit-taking. Therefore, considering the above factors, the subsequent market trend is likely to consolidate around 9.8, with institutions and large players offloading before facing another wave of decline.

#比特币市场波动观察 #圣诞行情预测 #市场调整後的机会？ $BTC
The crypto market has ushered in a second big drop. What should we do next?
1. The big cake has fallen to the 9.5 mark. At present, this position is not safe enough. There is no sign of stopping the decline. Affected by Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU, the Biden government's 12.21 shutdown, and the profit-taking selling for Christmas, the subsequent market trend is not optimistic. If the 9.4 mark can be supported, it will have to go to 9.0. Now it is not very friendly to the long army. People are the knife and I am the fish. How deep this knife cuts depends on how much the profit-taking sells. Especially this continuous decline will form a herd effect. Follow the sell-off. The buying below can't take it up, which will intensify this selling behavior. Now the news is not friendly to the long army. Trump threatens the EU Tariffs were added, and the Biden administration’s funding plan was not passed by Congress. It faces the risk of a shutdown on the 21st. Profits were sold and sold. Musk was investigated by the military, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin was not held. These news are not very friendly to the subsequent trend. The currency circle entered winter overnight, and the reversal came too quickly. There is another risk point. The Biden administration is about to step down. It may trip up Trump before stepping down. This kind of black swan event is also very likely to happen. Trump is about to take office. He has power in his hands. He may not say some positive words for votes like he did during the election. He will still govern the country more like a x after he takes office, and he will do some unexpected surprises from time to time. These are all risk points. 2025 is really not optimistic. All the subtle phenomena are vaguely foreshadowing that the crypto circle will turn from prosperity to decline in 2025.

On December 11, 2024, at 5 AM, how many people's dreams of wealth were shattered by a needle this night? Around 5 AM, the large pancake was punctured down to around 9.4. The analysis of the main intent released on Sunday was not expected to materialize so quickly.

Discussing the upcoming outlook on Bitcoin, which only represents my personal opinion. I believe Bitcoin will rise above 100,000 in the short term but will not break the previous high. In the short term, it will fluctuate between 98,000 and 106,000.
1. My analysis is based on the recent significant drop from 10,000 points. Why was there such a large decline followed by an immediate rebound? Currently, the market sentiment consensus is predominantly bullish. If the rally continues, many bulls would be lying on the sidelines with their money, which is common knowledge. Therefore, the main force will definitely not continue to push the price up. Continuing to push higher would be too heavy for the vehicle, and the funds needed for the rally would also be substantial. Bitcoin is no longer in the 50,000-60,000 range; the funds required to keep pushing it up will also increase. Bitcoin has surpassed silver, and the market is large, making it difficult to push up. Secondly, if the rally continues and retail investors blindly follow, then there is no technical analysis involved. This does not align with the interests of the main force. Notice that the price did not drop to 92,000 and quickly rebounded, meaning few bulls set such high stop losses. That is, the bulls who bought at 92,000 have almost fully exited. Now, with Bitcoin around 100,000, will the main force employ the same tactics again? This is worth considering!
2. The main force is currently creating an illusion of a continued rally, giving bulls near 98,000 a bit more time to bottom feed. However, these small profits are definitely unsatisfying for the bulls, and they will continue to be bullish. Therefore, keeping the price above 100,000 perfectly aligns with the main force's interests because the bulls who bought at 92,000 are relatively unaffected by a drop of a few thousand points. The bulls who bottomed out around 98,000 are more numerous and have more capital. Ultimately, if there is another significant drop of 10,000 points, it would maximize the interests of the main force by wiping out both the bulls who bought at 92,000 and those who bought at 98,000.
For the bears, those who have held onto the previous high of Bitcoin without being wiped out are definitely strong players who will continue to hold. Continuing the rally is also insignificant for this portion of the bears. Therefore, bears who shorted around 98,000 have mostly exited by now, with those who haven’t also having likely been wiped out. At this point, a decline would also maximize the interests of the main force. So there will definitely be another significant drop in Bitcoin, and I currently see it at 88,000.

#BTC能站稳10W吗？ $BTC

With the current global economic situation, you are still talking to me about the bull market. The US debt crisis is on the verge of collapse. The Fed's interest rate hike will continue to drive US debt higher, further accelerating the US debt crisis. The rebound in inflation data due to interest rate cuts will make all the previous actions go to waste. The US has no good way to solve this dilemma. It can only let the currency circle bear the responsibility of the over-printed US dollar reservoir, harvest through a big drop, reduce the over-issuance of US dollars, and a big drop is just around the corner! #大盘走势 $BTC $ETH

How are the brothers who shorted at 60,000? Why am I so determined to be bullish at 60,000? Don’t be fooled by the fighting in the Middle East and the sharp drop in the capital market. In fact, these are all what I want to show you. Take today’s news of Israel’s counterattack against Iran. The news was all released by the American media. Behind the American media are the Wall Street capital groups. The American media are all there to serve the Wall Street capital groups. These media are just a gun in the hands of Wall Street capital. They release news to create panic, and then let this wave of leeks sell all kinds of assets in their hands. Then Wall Street capital secretly absorbs funds at a low level, and after the layout is completed, let the media come out to release reasonable news, and then pull up, let the leeks rush in, and then secretly ship goods to complete the harvesting closed loop. #比特币减半 $BTC $ETH

The trend of bitcoin last night was really exciting. It kept rising in the first half of the night and reached around 65,000. In the second half of the night, Israel attacked Iran and the situation took a sharp turn for the worse. All the funds that entered the market yesterday were buried, without exception. The war between Israel and Iran was on the verge of breaking out. Of course, the cryptocurrency circle had to pay some military expenses and contribute to the Sixth Middle East War. Once the missile sounded, gold would be worth a lot. Currently, the global capital markets are all falling. I reiterate that the 60,000 point is very critical. I will buy the bottom and go long near this point and stick to the subsequent bullish thinking.

These few days are really too frustrating. The price can’t fall down, and it can’t rise up. It rises and then falls again. It’s pulled back and forth, and it’s tempting to be long and short. It’s a double kill. Let’s talk about your views on the future market. It’s hard for the big cake to fall below 60,000 at present. Every time it reaches this key point, there will be a mysterious force to hold it up. This point is the lowest point in the past two months. A lot of capital is in position. So the first judgment is that the big cake 60,000 point is difficult to fall below, but if it doesn’t fall below, it will rise. It’s not true. The big cake fell from 70,000 very suddenly this time. It needs a period of repair. The next three to five days will definitely be a shock repair market. What When will it rise to 70,000? My guess is that after the halving, it depends on the market consensus and the funds entering the market. If there is continued off-market funds entering the market, it is not impossible to pull it up to 70,000. Where does this off-market funds come from?
1. Institutional investors from the United States enter the market,
2. Funds from Hong Kong in Asia enter the market,
3. Funds from other international regions enter the market,
As of now, a large amount of bottom-fishing funds will appear in the range of 58,000-62,000. Now retail investors like us can only wait and see. Don't get off the bus. Getting off the bus now is tantamount to stupid behavior. Wait until the moment of change comes.

Insider information: Hong Kong will approve Bitcoin spot ETF on Monday. Tonight is a godsend opportunity for the bulls.

The square is full of bearish views on the price of Bitcoin to 58,000 or even 48,000. Such voices are really hindsight. You just keep bearish views when the market falls. Anyway, you don’t have to take responsibility. In my opinion, such voices are either stupid or foolish. I solemnly say that the main factor for the sharp drop in Bitcoin yesterday was Iran’s retaliation against Israel. The market was worried that the two countries would start fighting and escalate, so the funds fled first. However, according to the current information feedback from various channels, this round of retaliation has ended for three reasons:
1. Iran clearly expressed that this retaliation has ended, as long as Israel does not retaliate,
2. In fact, this round of Iran’s attack on Israel did not cause actual losses, only a little boy was injured, and Israel did not need to retaliate,
3. Before Israel bombed the Iranian embassy, ​​Iran clearly said it would retaliate. This retaliation is more of a symbolic show, and it has to explain to the domestic and international community. Then Israel and Iran can take this step.
Therefore, this round of conflict between Iran and Israel is more of a show, a step for them to step down. If Israel does not make a foolish move, this round of conflict will end here. Therefore, the long army is bold to buy the bottom, and the future pie will still return to more than 70,000$$#

The market exists objectively and will not change due to people's subjective consciousness. Don't impose personal emotions on the market. Interpret the market objectively. Respect objective facts and trade based on what you see rather than what you think. If you can't look at the market objectively, it is easy to lose rules and discipline when the market is inconsistent with your judgment. Only after experiencing (preferably at least two) complete bull and bear markets, will you begin to have a correct understanding of the market. You should know that the biggest enemy is not greed, nor fear, but luck. Luck hopes that accidental low-probability events will happen or not happen, and this is how the warehouse explosion happens. Many mentality masters who finally passed the greed and fear barrier were defeated by luck. Psychologically, what you expect generally does not appear, but what you worry about often becomes a reality. For every trader, the market is fair, and you should open your mind to experience the language of the futures market, that is, price, trading volume and market fluctuations. Talk to the market and follow the market trend to better grasp the development of the market. $BTC $ETH #比特币减半

#大饼$$Is there still air force? Why am I still a little excited about such a rise?

Turn‌‌‍‌‌‍‌‎‌‏‌‌‌‎‌‏‌‌‏‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‎‍‏‎‎‍‍‌‎‎‎‌ ‎‏‏‌‌‎‏‌‌‌‏‎‍‎‎‌‌‍‏‌‍‌‌‌‏‏‎‏‌‌‍‌‌‍‌ ‎‌‏‌‌‌‎‌‏‌‌‏‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‎‍‏‎‎‍‍‌‎‎‎‌‎‏‏‌‌‎ ‏‌‌‌‏‎‍‎‎‌‌‍‏‌‍‌‌‌‏‏‎‏‌‌‍‌‌‍‌‎‌ ‏‌‌‌‎‌‏‌‌‏‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‎‍‏‎‎‍‍‌‎‎‎‌‎‏‏‌‌‎‏‌ ‌‌‏‎‍‎‎‌‌‍‏‌‍‌‌‌‏‏‎‏‌‌‍‌‌‍‌‎‌‏‌‌‌ ‎‌‏‌‌‏‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‌‌‏‏‎‌‎‍‏‎‎‍‍‌‎‎‎‌‎‏‏‌‌‎‏‌‌‌‏‎ ‍‎‎‌‌‍‏‌‍‌‌‌‏‏‎‏Yi is the hardest person to succeed in the world cause,

It is also the easiest profession to make money.

It is also a career that you can focus on for a lifetime.

Wisdom cannot be touched before it is opened,

Love cannot be touched until the relationship is closed,

If you haven’t experienced the warmth and coldness of human relationships, you can’t touch them.

If you don’t want to embark on the path of spiritual practice, you can’t touch it.

Only people who are of the same body as Buddha and Demon would choose this path.

This is a path of seeking within,

Be good at emotional management,

To know how to enjoy loneliness,

To have a high understanding of human nature,

Dare to break your self-perception.

Appearance is gentle and elegant,

The heart is decisive and decisive,

This is the state that every trader should have. #热门话题 #BNBChain $BTC $ETH