Bitcoin wants to break through the market value of gold
At present, if the market value of Bitcoin wants to exceed the market value of gold, it needs to reach a price of about $550,000.
You have to understand that the market value of gold is backed by large-scale purchases by governments and central banks, and the speculation of retail investors is far from enough to drive the market value of gold.
Therefore, to achieve this goal, it is only possible if the United States sells all its gold reserves and buys Bitcoin instead.
If the price of Bitcoin rises to $1 million, it may require large countries such as China and Russia to enter the market on a large scale to buy Bitcoin, and it is estimated that even so it is not enough to support this price.
When the market is full of optimism about Bitcoin and everyone is looking forward to its continued rise, you will actually find that the rise of Bitcoin is not as strong as imagined.
For example, after Bitcoin broke through a new high in 2017, the price rose 20 times in a year; after breaking through a new high again in 2021, the price rose 3.5 times.
And this year? After breaking through the new high, Bitcoin experienced a long period of shock, and after half a year of hesitation, it barely broke through 90,000.
Retail investors may follow the trend and blindly chase the rise, but large institutions will not act so easily. Their fear of high positions is obvious.
Some people predict that Bitcoin may reach $135,000 at its highest point in this bull market; Some people believe that this high point will be around $150,000; Some analysts see it even higher, predicting that Bitcoin may break through $200,000; There are even bold predictions that Bitcoin's peak may hit $250,000!
So, where do you think Bitcoin's final high point will be?
Perhaps we can challenge this general expectation and let the market move beyond the consensus of retail investors!
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The current price is 0.577, you can consider going long. The stop loss is set at 0.54, and the target is 0.7.
The current trend is very healthy. Since the breakthrough a few days ago, the price has been correcting and accumulating funds. It is currently close to a key pressure level and may break through at any time.
The recent surge in Bitcoin has attracted the attention of many people, and many people have begun to speculate whether the bull market is really coming.
Judging from the new fans who have joined me recently, about 70% are newcomers. They focus on the surge in Bitcoin, but ignore the fact that other altcoins are still weak.
Many people hope to find opportunities like DOGE, want to ambush in advance, and expect a certain altcoin to rise sharply like DOGE.
However, the reality is that the current market conditions are far from the level of a bull market, and are even worse than the "dog market".
Now there are only a few currencies in the market that perform well, and almost all of them are meme assets, such as DOGE, PEPE, etc.
Moreover, with a new round of retail investors pouring into the market, it may also mean that the current market cycle is coming to an end.
The characteristics of the late bull market include:
1. Everyone recommends B-coin because almost everyone has invested in it.
2. The market generally believes that there is no possibility of a correction. Everyone believes that the price will only rise all the way, and leverage is fully utilized.
3. Even the weakest and least favored currencies in the market have begun to rise sharply.
4. Bad news is ignored, and people generally have the illusion that "even if it falls, it will rise again."
5. The general public believes that the market structure is different this time, suggesting that the bull market will last forever.
6. Value assets such as ETH, BNB, OKB, etc. have set new highs and are far away from previous historical highs, showing a strong upward momentum.
7. The market is full of investments in more volatile altcoins, and people generally pursue quick profits.
The current price of Bitcoin is $87,650. Yesterday's hawkish speech and the excessive greed in the market have led to a short-term wash-out adjustment.
1. Although the market has experienced a certain correction, this is also an opportunity for investors to get on board. However, the recent increase is relatively rapid, and it is expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase in the short term.
2. Be cautious about long orders of altcoins.
Although yesterday's surge may bring some residual heat, it is still necessary to be vigilant about market risks at this time.
It is recommended to wait for Bitcoin to fluctuate sideways, and then look for hot sectors of altcoins when the market stabilizes.
3. A giant whale recently invested $2.24 million in PEPE, and the current position of the whale has reached $11.71 million.
4. CB JYS announced potential projects on the Bi, including MEW, FLOKI, BOME, TURBO and NEIRO.
Frog PEPE breaks through the circle again! As Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the historical high in the early hours of yesterday morning, reaching 93K, surprisingly, it was $PEPE that broke the historical high right after it.
With the successful listing on Coinbase, PEPE soared more than doubled in a short period of time, successfully breaking the historical high, becoming another explosive altcoin after Dogecoin (DOGE).
However, it is important to note that PEPE's whales have begun to gradually cash in their profits.
After the fund account with 2 trillion PEPE broke the historical high, it immediately sold 500 billion PEPE.
Therefore, for PEPE supporters, it is recommended to be cautious in chasing highs in the short term.
If there is no accident, it is expected that after this wave of market conditions, the MEME sector will be the first to attract traffic and become the first wave of market rotation.
Some poorly performing coins tend to "follow the decline but not the rise".
Currently, Meme coins with low market value, high popularity and good narratives have become the main way to attract new funds and users, otherwise the market will inevitably fall into a state of internal circulation and internal consumption.
Pnut and Act have taken the lead in firing the first shot, and the new Meme coins that will be launched on the exchange are also worth paying attention to.
For newly launched Meme coins, exchanges often boost their rise to create a get-rich-quick effect, thereby attracting more new funds to flow in.
This is also a strategic direction of the exchange in the near future, and I will share it with you in advance.
Recently, PNUT is undoubtedly one of the most popular Meme coins. Since it was launched on Binance less than four days ago, it has risen from the bottom to the high point in the past two days, and the increase has reached 450%. Many investors have made huge profits. Congratulations to all friends who have made money.
However, today PNUT began to pull back after reaching the high point of 2.5, and failed to break through the high point again. Generally speaking, for such a hot currency, once it enters the adjustment stage, it may be difficult to hold the current position.
Here I would like to remind everyone to pay attention to risks and avoid chasing highs. If the 1.7 support level is broken, it may soon drop to around 1.4.
If investors are interested in bottom-fishing in spot layout, it is recommended to wait for the price to drop below 1.4 and then build positions in batches.
In terms of contracts, do not go long easily, and the callback volatility may reach 10-20 percentage points.
I think PEPE has the potential to become another altcoin after DOGE in terms of status and attention.
If its starting point is set at around 0.00000019, similar to DOGE starting from about $0.001 to $0.004, it has achieved a four-fold increase.
Moreover, PEPE has broken through the previous high point, and the subsequent upward space has been opened. Recently, it has also landed on platforms such as Coinbase and Upbit.
Currency attention: LINK, ORDI, SOL, DOGE, PEPE, BOME, TRU
Brothers, $ACT is now a currency that is worth paying attention to! Although it is volatile and not suitable for contract operations, judging from the current market trend, ACT is likely to usher in a wave of explosions. If you haven't gotten on board yet, you can now consider allocating an appropriate amount in the spot market and operating steadily.
Why recommend ACT?
Market trend: The current market sentiment is relatively optimistic. ACT has a certain potential for growth under this market situation and may usher in an explosion in the short term.
Volatility: ACT has a large volatility. Although it is not suitable for contract operations, as a spot investment, although it fluctuates violently, the risk is relatively controllable and will not cause a large loss in the short term.
Explosion potential: As the market gradually recovers, ACT, as a potential currency, may attract more capital inflows in the future, thereby driving its rise.
Considering the large volatility of ACT, the best strategy is to spread funds to spot, reasonably allocate positions, and reduce risks.
Although there may be some fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, ACT still has a large potential for explosion. It is suitable to hold a part in the current market and wait for the opportunity to explode.
At present, in the market environment where Bitcoin (BTC) has broken through 90K, the on-chain meme coins are strong, and most altcoins (alts) are in a downturn, and even SOL and ETH are weak, there are still many directions worth discussing.
Bitcoin has risen to 90K, but the alt season seems to be delayed. So, how high does Bitcoin need to rise to start the alt season? Is it 110K, 150K or 170K?
If the alt season still does not come even if Bitcoin rises to such a high level, does it mean that Bitcoin has not reached the top and may continue to rise?
But even if Bitcoin rises to a very high position, will the alt season definitely come with it?
In case the alt season really comes, will those altcoins just be in a weak compensatory rise stage and become "doomsday chariots"?
These questions are just some thoughts and assumptions about the future market.
However, returning to the most important strategy in the bull market, that is, "the strong will always be strong."
From the 4-hour chart of Dogecoin, it has now shown a top pattern, and we need to be alert to the possible risk of a pullback.
The key support levels for the pullback are 0.376, 0.317 and 0.259. If a stop-loss signal appears at these support levels, you can consider placing long orders and seize potential rising opportunities.
Yesterday's positions, $PNUT and $ACT were basically not adjusted, for the following reasons:
$PNUT: The market's fund spillover effect on DOGE has attracted attention, but which one will investors choose? Although the market has favored Puppy ($DOGE) in the past, it is now possible to turn funds to projects related to Musk.
Since $PNUT is related to Musk, keeping $PNUT positions can prevent risks.
$ACT: The reason for not adjusting the position is that the current logic remains unchanged.
We wait for the funds in the AI track to start. Once the market generally rises tenfold, $ACT is likely to become the leader.
The current MEME market may experience a phased correction, but the overall trend is still far from over. Here are two objective factors and one subjective judgment I think:
1. The altcoin season has not yet arrived: The current MEME market is only a preliminary climax, and the real altcoin season has not yet begun.
The climax of MEME coins usually occurs when all altcoins move forward in unison, but now Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have not yet hit new highs, so the capital momentum of the entire market has not been fully released.
2. There is no super MEME coin like SHIB yet: There is currently no MEME coin in the market with a market value of more than 40 to 50 billion like $SHIB in the previous round.
According to experience, in this round of cycle, once Binance fully supports MEME coins, especially projects like $NEIRO, it will quickly attract a lot of funds in a short period of time.
Therefore, I am sure that there will be a new MEME coin that performs more amazingly than $SHIB.
3. Institutions and traditional VCs have not yet fully entered: Although Crypto VC friends around me have begun to consider how to enter the MEME market, not many have actually participated.
And those friends from the traditional investment circle still mentioned Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) the most.
This reminds me of the peak of the last round of NFT craze, when almost all traditional VCs and financial institutions were discussing how OpenSea and NFT would subvert the world.
Today, real institutional and retail FOMO (fear of missing out) has not yet fully erupted.
Therefore, although there may be a short-term correction, from the overall cycle point of view, the main theme of the MEME market is far from over.
Yesterday morning, I adjusted my position and changed half of my NEIRO position to PNUT. The reason was not simply to chase the rise, but based on market trends.
At present, DOGE's capital outflow is obvious, and the market may look for new related targets.
In the past, the market tended to be Puppycoin, but now it may turn to PNUT, mainly because both DOGE and PNUT have an association effect related to Musk.
Therefore, both NEIRO and PNUT are retained to diversify risks.
ACT maintains its original position unchanged, and the logic is still clear, waiting for the opportunity of capital rotation in the AI track.
When the sector generally rises tenfold, ACT is likely to lead.