Today's article expresses personal opinions based on the current reality of BTC weekly chart. It is not used as a basis for placing orders and is for reference only. 1: It took 49 days for the callback from point A to point B to be 17346 points; it took 37 days for the rebound from point B to point C to be 15606 points, with a rebound amplitude of 89.9%. 2: The total time from point C to point D is 18814.5 points, which is a total of 21 days. My personal opinion is that the height of point E will not exceed that of point C, and the rebound proportion from wave 4 will not exceed that of wave 2. Here are the reasons: 1: If wave 5 does not exist, then the previous waves 1234 should be a W shape. This shape usually has a characteristic that point D is higher than point B, but BTC does not have it.
Spring is coming... The first time it reached the lifeline 0.03932 in four hours, it retreated When it rose for the second time, it stood on the four-hour lifeline.
The impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on digital currency
1: The fundamental reason for the rise is the monthly cycle, and the interest rate cut is the fuse. Even without the interest rate cut, there will be other events driving the rise.
2: The interest rate cut does not mean that the US economy can't bear it. They are the world's largest financial players and have many means. The interest rate cut is just to cooperate with the presidential election. After this time, there is a high probability that they will increase it to achieve their purpose of harvesting. According to their practice, they will not stop until they achieve their goal. Therefore, if you only see a 50-point interest rate cut and start to think that others have surrendered, it is a bit of an underestimation of others, and you will hurt yourself later.
3: The interest rate hike of the Bank of Japan has the greatest impact on the global economy. In March this year, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, ending the 8-year interest rate, and it was also the first interest rate hike in 17 years. Historically, the probability of a global crisis breaking out within 3 to 6 months after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates twice is the highest. At noon today, the Bank of Japan will announce a new interest rate decision. Recently, senior executives of the Bank of Japan have frequently said that they will raise interest rates. Even if they don't raise interest rates this time, there will be a high probability of another one later.
Certainty: The medium- and long-term bullish trend of Bitcoin and Coinbase is established and will not disappear in the short term, but it is not recommended to chase high in the short term, especially for contracts. The reasons are as follows 1: BTC has just broken through the oscillation range. In this case, there will generally be a retracement. If there is no new high, pay attention to the support below the four-hour level of 61850. 2: ETH is weaker than Bitcoin, but it has also stood on the four-hour lifeline. If there is no new high, the support below the four-hour level is 2398. 3: Exchange rate, this rebounded twice yesterday and the four-hour lifeline of 0.03932, the third time it touched, it is likely to break through, and the cottage will have spring after this indicator stands. #BTC #ETH
BTC: This is the core position of the leader. It has completely stood on the four-hour lifeline. The medium- and long-term bullish trend is established. The 70,000 Bitcoin will be seen soon.
ETH: Weaker than Bitcoin, but will only be late but not absent. Focus on the 2345 position during the day. #BTC #ETH
Thoughts: The market has not yet broken through the triangle oscillation range. Although there is a big positive, don't chase it, wait for confirmation. Focus on the following positions BTC: Hourly chart lifeline (support) 58850 ETH: Hourly chart lifeline (support) 2301, this position is also a key support level of today's AI daily line.
Approaching the eve of the trend breakthrough, the oscillation space is getting smaller and smaller, and the general trend direction will be determined this week.
Today, the market focuses on BTC's 58,500 position. The reason is
1: This is the lifeline of the previous stage of the daily line. After the breakthrough, it fell back and closed below this level yesterday, indicating that the short-term strength is weak.
2: It is also the lifeline (resistance) position of the hourly chart of the current rebound.
If this position can be effectively stood above (with a medium-large positive line and the closing price standing above this position), the market will resume bullishness. If it cannot stand above this position, the support of 55,500 may be tested below.
Bulls temporarily avoid it and wait for the signal to enter the market. The medium and long-term trend will not be affected much.
Setting the tone: This week will probably be weak first and strong later
BTC: Last week, it broke through the hourly chart and the four-hour chart continuously. On the 13th, it broke through the daily lifeline of 58500. It is currently stepping back to confirm the support strength of this daily lifeline. Therefore, the position of the daily closing line in the first two days of this week is more critical. If it closes above the daily lifeline, the bullish trend exists; if it closes below, the market needs to adjust. AI analysis shows that the long-short boundary of this week's weekly line is 58085. If it is inserted at this position during the session, it is also normal. Bulls temporarily avoid it and wait for the signal to appear.
ETH: This is weaker than the big cake. The more critical position of the daily line is 2275. This stepping back can be understood as the first stepping back to the four-hour lifeline, with a fluctuation of 1~2.
The emergence of medium and large positive lines has brought the market into a new level, but it is not recommended to chase directly. It is necessary to confirm after stepping back before entering the market.
BTC stands on the daily lifeline and ETH stands on the four-hour lifeline, which means the exhaustion of the short trend. In the next stage, try to open fewer or no short orders.
Trading must be simple The more complex the trading strategy The more it will interfere with your emotions Making it difficult for you to judge Remember the following sentences 1: Go with the flow 2: Don’t predict, just follow 3: Cut losses and let profits run 4: Be patient, wait until the fish is hooked, then pull the rod 5: To make simplicity to the extreme is the trick. #BTC #ETH
Setting tone: BTC daily line will fluctuate for 3~5 days, and this fluctuation is to prepare for the next breakthrough. ETH: Half a grid weaker than Bitcoin, and the trend will be determined later than Bitcoin.
Reference for fluctuation range BTC: 57000~58500 ETH: 2246~2410
After the fluctuation in the above range ends, a new round of upward trend will start.