Doubt that I am the dealer, deduct 1 Doubt that I have insider information in advance, deduct 2 Firmly believe that I strive for excellence in technical analysis, deduct 3 Think that I am a charlatan relying on guesswork, deduct 5 Think that someone is using the values I provided to collectively manipulate a small market in a community, deduct 6
This wave has stumped all the analytical experts, charlatans, and loudmouth KOLs in the square. In times of market uncertainty, you'll find that the charlatans have basically disappeared, while those who are irresponsible for others' assets remain. Looking at the structure, the current bottom structure hasn't broken, but the pivot points have been repeatedly pushed lower. On the momentum side, the three-day MACD is facing downward pressure with a breakthrough below the zero axis appearing as an s❌, and the red energy bars are starting to show. Those who are looking at both structure and momentum are getting confused. With such a large dark cloud descending from above, this downward-trending and volatile market is truly difficult to predict. Everyone should ignore what people in the square are saying in all directions. It’s better to focus on the breakthroughs at 96200 and 96500, as there is relatively more resistance above. With the trend unclear, it’s advisable to keep your hands steady and trade less. The three-day MACD has pressed down past the s-cross; the panic has subsided, but I personally think it’s still quite difficult to reach 110,000 or 105,000 in the short term. Holding low and shorting high is always the best strategy.
Is there still someone singing bullish while looking bearish in the square? Currently, it seems that the desperate counterattack at 93700 this morning should have been a large whale buying in. Looking at the one-hour level, 93700 is very likely to be a W bottom. With the increasing trading volume on the one-hour chart, the MACD volume bars are also continuously expanding. Currently, it is gradually breaking through the upper resistance levels of 96200, 96500, 97000, 97200, and 98000. If it wants to break through these resistance levels, it will inevitably pull up a large bullish candle; otherwise, as you can see, the trend has been downward.
Recent observations for the past four hours in the afternoon, was it just a pullback to 94700? Could it be that 93700 is the extreme limit of this wave's bottom? Is it truly a short-term W bottom? There is currently no obvious breakthrough of the upper pressure, and once it breaks through, it will be a big bullish candle. This is the time for long and short bets.
Go to the physical store to ask, then check the official website, hey hey, it's a few hundred yuan cheaper. 😂😂😂 The store staff also recommended that I buy from the official website, but I can't help feeling a little disappointed, and they even scared me by saying that what I buy from the official website are all fake.
For the current 4-hour level market, I dare not predict whether it will rise or fall, fearing that a misjudgment may cause some losses for everyone. However, the important reversal point for the 4-hour chart has arrived. 95200 and 96500 are significant resistance zones for the bulls that need to be broken through in both small and large cycles. There is a demand for a reversal. Do not rule out the possibility of a bait-and-switch operation by the market makers. The bottom on the 15-minute chart can also be seen as a W bottom. 😊 Bull and bear perspectives differ. The rise and fall of Bitcoin don't really have much to do with me anymore. 😓
Interpretation of the current 1-hour structure trend of Bitcoin, it is still finding trends at an important downward turning point. It is now forming a small ascending diamond pattern, with 92300 as the bottom, 95177 as the battleground between bulls and bears, and 98070 as the top, oscillating within this range, with 93650 as the point of a counterattack. Saying this now might make everyone laugh and call it hindsight.
Regarding the large pancake bottoming out with a red candle on the three-day line, after nearly a free vertical drop, it received effective support and has seen a slight rebound. Currently, many big players are saying we are in the rebound phase of the B-wave. However, the red energy in the daily MACD is increasingly heavy, and there is a double crossover resistance zone at the high peak. At that time, as long as one is not too foolish, they will go short and set a stop loss a few hundred dollars above. However, in the current market trend, there has been no successful breakthrough above the high peak of 108330, and it has started to move towards a correction route. The second rebound met the resistance area of the top 4-hour long and short battle at 99500, where a V-shaped reversal still appeared, and the rebound peaks are getting lower, with the pivot point also moving downwards. The bulls are retreating step by step, and with the weekly KDJ closing red last week, there has already been a crossover situation. I still think the important direction is determined by the monthly support at 96200. Of course, on the hourly level, I don’t need to say, the left previous high serves as a trend identification direction. But one thing is that you absolutely cannot see where the resistance line of the left previous high is located, 😂 and that is my value 😏. Breaking through the left previous high might lead to a false breakout, after all, the resistance in the right front is something the main force does not want to pull. In any case, it’s not a big deal; I can always short a bit at a lower position.
Regarding the current resistance position of the market range, the bottom is at 102300 and the top is at 108330. It has now fallen back into a small range. Of course, the bottom still shares the support of 102300. I personally think the upper resistance should still focus on the effective breakthrough and stabilization above 98000. If it continues to break upward, watch the resistance line at 99600, and I estimate that 99200 is also an important battleground for bulls and bears.
In dealing with the predictions about the cryptocurrency market, there are no gods, nor any so-called metaphysics; it is merely a matter of using momentum indicators to assess the market's greed and panic emotions, structure, rise amplitude, and resistance situations to make a rough prediction. In the early stages of a cryptocurrency surge, I repeatedly questioned what would happen with this structure just starting to rise.
Give Old P a wave, is this considered a high prediction rate? I told everyone at 107800 at five in the afternoon that the weekly K was 95.5 and RSI was 80. When the big bullish candle rose around 9 PM, I realized that the four-hour cycle encountered resistance. In the comments, I told those who wanted to short to set stop losses at 108200 and 108500. I really didn't expect it to go above 108300. We are all Monday morning quarterbacks; it's just that being a Monday morning quarterback confirmed the subsequent trend, that's all. The market's uncertainty is too great. I think the real over-prediction is still from me. I believe most people have seen my posts that Bitcoin will be at 103700 and 106500. I can find the screenshots to prove it.
What do you think about the recent 15-minute quick pin callback? How long can the support at 95200 hold, or is this a new starting point for an upward trend?
The rebound of the pancake is weak, repeatedly testing the lower support. It seems that the market makers may not have adjusted completely at once. The daily line or pin rebounding levels are 93800, 91431, 89055, 87586. Currently, the smaller levels of 95600, 94940 are being tested.