The $68,200 level aligns with important resistances on the OI, a critical aspect given that the market has been driven mostly by long positions in futures, a segment that handles seven times more volume than Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
If Bitcoin fails to hold above this level in October, the risk of a long squeeze increases.
Moreover, since October 14, spot market traders have been inactive, which raises concerns as the rally has been driven mostly by perpetual futures, a worrying sign. $BTC
In the 2020-2021 Bitcoin & Crypto bull market, the number of retail investors was 10 TIMES MORE than in the current bull market.
In other words, very few people on the street are interested in BTC and cryptocurrencies right now, the general public is out of the market.
This has a number of readings, most of them positive, which I will break down for you in this thread 🧵 bitcoin ✅ If Bitcoin has managed to rise to 63K$ without the help of retail money, then it logically means that the rise has been generated by institutional money.
Imagine the potential of this bull market, if BTC is at 68K$ without the help of retail money. When the general public arrives, we will easily surpass prices of 120K$ or even 150K$ in this cycle. ✅ Smart money (institutional money), which are large fortunes, investment funds, exchanges, whales... their main objective is to capture the liquidity of the general public. This is how they make money.
Therefore, with 100% probability, in the next 10-12 months they will seek to attract retail capital, buying spaces in the media, newspapers, websites, television, etc. etc., and above all, pumping prices higher through market making. ✅ If altcoins are at these prices without the general public having accessed the market, it effectively means that they are at market floor levels, and that those who have formed that floor, that main support, are smart money.
Buying alts at current prices, IMO, is low risk, because it is the smart money that is interested in not going below these prices. IMO I see an X5 in any average altcoin with a decent project, in the next 10-12 months. ✅ If altcoins are at these prices without the general public having access to the market, it effectively means that they are at market floor levels, and that those who have formed that floor, that main support, are the smart money.
BLACKROCK just made a HUGE move, buying over $1 BILLION worth of bitcoin this week. 💸🔥 When big fish like BlackRock bet big, you know something big is about to happen! 😱 $BTC
There is a great mistake in believing that, as bearish fundamental analysts, we focus on persistently executing short operations on Bitcoin.
Yes, we have a projection that predicts Bitcoin towards $40,000, it would be a mistake to concentrate our investments in the spot market or vehemently insist on short positions.
Since August, we have chosen to invest in the options market with expirations in December, January and February.
The little capital we have to make short operations in futures has experienced only three losses this month in Bitcoin.
We enter short positions in strategic places. $BTC
Bitcoin is facing a fundamentally adverse environment, something that often goes unnoticed by the average investor or those with little research in this area, who, by the time they notice it, it is already too late.
🇺🇸 Unrealized losses of US banks:
7 times greater than during the 2008 financial crisis.
The recent 50 bps reduction by the FED is a shock measure to mitigate the challenges on the economic horizon.
Bitcoin is in a vulnerable position.
It only takes the next inflation, GDP or unemployment reports to be negative for deeper and longer-lasting falls to be consolidated. $BTC
Fundamental analysts tend to be ahead of the curve, seeing the forest and not the trees. We have argued that gold's ATH is a risk for assets like Bitcoin.
In 1972 and 1978, gold rose before inflationary spikes of 12% and 15%. In October 2007, it peaked before the 2008 crisis.
Bitcoin, by many metrics, behaves like a tech stock, and a stock market correction could cause its price to fall. $BTC
Bitcoin is following a similar pattern to the one that gold showed before its recent bullish push.
Gold first experienced a sharp drop, then broke its all-time high.
If this fractal repeats itself, Bitcoin could seek liquidity at $40,000 before reaching a new high, as we have warned over the past 10 weeks.
A strong move is coming, keeping the scenario of a new low valid based on technical analysis. $BTC Leave your comments to see what direction BTC will take before and after the US elections
Michael Saylor is definitely right in this statement, most people will regret not having bought Bitcoin. Because they will always be waiting for the best time or the best price to buy or because they are afraid or because they think Bitcoin is a scam. 15 years after the launch of Bitcoin and every day I am more convinced that the best thing I could do was learn about Bitcoin#blockchain#web3 and #Fintech. And you, do you already have some Bitcoin? $BTC
We are still in the same situation in Bitcoin, a tough battle between bulls and bears continues to be waged, right at the resistance of the bearish trend line that began in March.
If we exceed $68K in BTC, fasten your seatbelts, because the next bullish rally begins, and probably the BULL RUN era.
I see good volume in the last few days, if we exceed $73K, go reserve the Ferrari 812 and the house in the Bahamas.
With three consecutive reports reflecting a reduction in inflation and a decrease in the unemployment rate in the United States, the bearish narrative is over.
However, even if Bitcoin reaches $85,000, its price could be threatened if macroeconomic indicators do not show improvement. $BTC
A series of CONCLUSIONS that I have reached about the Crypto market in recent months:
• Bitcoin is the undisputed king of this ecosystem. It is advisable to have AT LEAST 50% of your capital in BTC. If you make money with alts, there are only two ways out: Invest it in BTC, or in FIAT (To invest in Real Estate or Raw Materials).
• Altcoins on AI like RENDER, FET and TAO in the next 10-12 months, more than any other category of alts.
crypto • As soon as ETH Ethereum explodes (it will), other assets in its ecosystem will also explode, such as $POL (formerly $Matic).
• ETH will do an X5 at some point in the next 10-12 months, I have no doubt about it. Institutional adoption is increasing in the asset. • These weakhand clean-ups we are currently seeing, especially in Alts, precede very powerful bullish rallies. Any average altcoin with a serious project will do at least X4 in the next 10-12 months.
• I don't see the MemeCoins season very clearly. Many will lose money, and a few will become millionaires. Memecoins are rugpull fodder, I like some in particular that I can count on my fingers: GME, BRETT, REDO, PEPE.