P2P SCAMS IN PAKISTANI BANKING SYSTEM

The rise of P2P scams in Pakistan's banking system, especially involving transactions with USDT through platforms like Binance, is indeed troubling. The scheme you described involves deceitful buyers exploiting the banking system’s lack of rigorous verification processes. Here’s a breakdown of the scam and its impact:

1. The Scam Process:

Buyers initiate a P2P transaction, agreeing to pay a seller in exchange for USDT.

After transferring the payment to the seller’s local bank account, the buyer marks the transaction as complete on Binance.

Once they receive the USDT in their Binance account, they contact their bank to lodge a false complaint, claiming the payment was made mistakenly.

Banks, without thorough verification, may freeze the seller’s account or reverse the transaction based solely on the buyer's complaint.

2. Impact on Sellers:

Financial Loss: Sellers lose their USDT and, potentially, the fiat amount they received. With the account freeze, they may also face issues accessing their funds.

Trust Erosion: Such scams create mistrust within the P2P trading community, making legitimate users hesitant to engage in future trades.

Account Risks: Sellers could face further scrutiny or even permanent account closure by banks due to these fraudulent complaints, damaging their financial reputation.

3. Challenges in the System:

Lack of Verification: Banks may not verify claims thoroughly before freezing accounts or initiating reversals. This lack of due diligence leaves the door open for fraudulent activities.

Weak Consumer Protection: Sellers have limited recourse to prove their innocence, as banks often favor the complainant, assuming good faith.

Slow Dispute Resolution: The process of unfreezing accounts and resolving such disputes can be lengthy, creating further financial stress for sellers.

4. Possible Solutions:

Enhanced Bank Verification: Banks should implement stricter verification processes before freezing accounts, such as validating transaction details and checking for possible fraud patterns.

Awareness Campaigns: Educating sellers about these scams can encourage them to document transactions thoroughly, such as keeping screenshots of chats and payment confirmations.

Stronger Platform Policies: Platforms like Binance could work more closely with local banks to create protocols for verifying disputes, ensuring that sellers aren’t unjustly targeted.

The rise of P2P scams emphasizes the need for stronger regulatory frameworks and cooperation between financial institutions and crypto platforms to protect users from fraudulent activities.

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Everyone is talking about interest rate decision and some of you might be confused what is interest rate decision and if it's bullish or bearish for crypto. No worries i got you covered.
In this article we will discuss what impact rate cuts can have on crypto market.
Before we go straight into how interest rates impact the market let's first discuss what interest rate is.
Interest Rate
The Federal Reserve interest rate is the rate at which depository institutions, such as banks, lend and borrow money from the Federal Reserve (the central bank of the United States). It is a key monetary policy tool used by the Federal Reserve to control the supply of money and influence economic growth and inflation. Changes in the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve can impact borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which, in turn, can affect the value and performance of stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
It's also have some more affects but we're in financial markets so we'll just be focusing on it.
Why Rate cut is needed?
FED cuts the rate for two reasons
When economy is showing the sign of weakness and Inflation and employment is not in control.When inflation is in control but the rates are too high.

Some of you may remember when the FED and most of the world banks lowered the interest rates when COVID 2019 came. Unemployment and inflation causes FED to change the interest rates. When COVID19 came so many were unemployed, losing their jobs and increasing prices of everyday goods the FED decided to cut the rates down to control the economic situation the country was facing.
When FED lowers the interest rates it helps to stimulate economic growth in a couple of ways.
Lower interest rates make it cheaper for people and businesses to borrow moneyCutting interest rates make it less profitable to keep money in the bank accounts.
When FED will start cutting the rates individuals will prefer to take their money out of banks and invest or spend that money into Commodities like GOLD, Silver or some decide to invest it into properties, stocks and crypto.
i mean it does make sense who would prefer to get less interest rates on their money by keeping into their bank accounts so instead they take the money out and invest it on somewhere else.
Rates cut is typically good news for crypto, stocks and other commodities. This was also the reason everything popped up when the FED cut interest rates after COVID19.
Let me take you back in March, 2020 when FED decided to cut the rates down.

Above picture is when the FED has a big rate cut after the COVID. it was a 1.00% cut on march 15,2020.

Above picture is the Bitcoin chart and you can clearly see how the rate cut marked bitcoin’s bottom and the price of bitcoin at that time was around $5000 and then we saw it run to $69,000.
Clearly a sign that people were more interested in investing than keeping their money in banks.

S & P 500 after interest rate cut 👇

Dow jones bottom after interest rate cut 👇

NASDAQ Bottom after interest rate cut 👇

All these above pictures are proof of how lower interest rates can have a great impact on the market movements. People were getting less interest rates than they were getting before on their savings and they decided to take their money out and put it into crypto, stocks or whatever market they would like to.

Will 2024 rate cuts trigger the Bull market again ?
Well looking at the previous data i shared with you above the rate cut was the reason we saw a great bull market. We can expect it again but remember that the rumors of FED cutting the rate is already getting priced in. When market reacts to something before it actually happens it mostly ends up a "Sell the news event"

Also remember that the situation in 2020 and the current situation is totally different. In 2020 everything was unstable and the interest rate was almost zero and now the inflation is somehow in control and the interest rate is sitting at 5.25%. So before you take decisions based on just previous data it will more better if you just wait and see what the market will do when the FED will finally cut the rates.

Overall rate cut is bullish for crypto but it's always depends on the market makers which way they want to run the market for the short term.
it can be a "Buy the rumors sell the news" type of thing but in the macro picture rate cut is bullish.
Use this in information as your education only not a financial advice.

I hope you learned something from it.

Date: 18-09-2024

#FOMC

The idea that Federal Reserve (FED) rate cuts lead to an automatic surge in stocks and cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has gained widespread traction. The simplified narrative is tempting: lower rates lead to more liquidity, more borrowing, and higher prices for risk assets. However, this view overlooks many crucial aspects of how monetary policy, economic conditions, and broader macroeconomic factors influence financial markets.
In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down the real relationship between rate cuts, the economy, and markets—particularly for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. We'll also explore additional critical metrics that play a significant role in determining whether or not a rate cut will lead to a bull run. Finally, we'll examine how historical data can help us understand what might happen next.
FED Rate Cuts and the Simplified Formula
The simplified view often goes something like this:
FED Rate Cut ↓Liquidity ↑Borrowing Costs ↓Economic Growth ↑Stock & Crypto Prices ↑
While this formula holds some truth, the market’s behavior is driven by more than just interest rate changes. Let’s explore the more intricate web of factors influencing stocks, crypto, and particularly Bitcoin.
What Truly Affects Bitcoin, Crypto, and the Stock Market?
Beyond rate cuts, these factors significantly influence Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies, and stock markets:
1. Inflation Rates
Inflation is a primary concern for central banks and investors. If inflation runs too high, it erodes purchasing power, and the FED is more likely to raise rates, even if the economy is weak. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are often considered a hedge against inflation, which means they could benefit if inflation remains high and rate cuts fail to cool it off.
Data Insight: Bitcoin’s bull run in 2020-2021 was partly fueled by concerns over inflation as the FED printed money in response to the pandemic. Inflation in the U.S. peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, the highest in over 40 years.
2. Economic Growth (GDP)
Healthy economic growth supports rising stock prices because it drives corporate profits. A robust economy, however, might discourage aggressive rate cuts. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, while not directly tied to corporate profits, still benefit from positive sentiment in a growing economy.
Data Insight: During periods of strong GDP growth, like the post-2008 recovery, both stock markets and Bitcoin saw substantial gains, with Bitcoin surging from $600 in 2016 to nearly $20,000 by the end of 2017.
3. Corporate Earnings
For stocks, corporate earnings are a primary driver. Even if the FED cuts rates, declining earnings or poor outlooks can depress stock prices. Bitcoin, though decentralized, may react to overall market sentiment, which is affected by corporate earnings data.
Historical Example: During the COVID-19 pandemic, despite aggressive rate cuts, sectors like retail and travel saw stock declines due to poor earnings, while tech stocks and Bitcoin surged due to increased demand for digital solutions and the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation.
4. Labor Market Data
The state of the labor market is a crucial indicator of the health of the economy. A strong labor market suggests more disposable income, which can boost both corporate profits and investor sentiment. Bitcoin and crypto markets can benefit indirectly, as more income and wealth translate into more investment capital flowing into speculative assets.
Current Data: As of mid-2024, U.S. unemployment remains low at 3.8%, signaling a strong labor market. However, wage inflation may pressure the FED to maintain or raise rates, which could put downward pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
5. Bankruptcy and Debt Levels
High levels of corporate bankruptcies can signal underlying economic weakness that even rate cuts can’t solve. If businesses are defaulting on debt despite low borrowing costs, it’s a red flag for the broader economy. Cryptocurrencies are not immune to this, as failing businesses reduce liquidity, which might otherwise flow into alternative assets.
Historical Insight: During the 2008 financial crisis, low rates weren’t enough to stop the tide of bankruptcies in the banking and housing sectors, and markets didn’t fully recover until deeper structural issues were addressed.
6. Liquidity in the Market
While rate cuts typically aim to boost liquidity, this liquidity does not always flow into risk assets like stocks and crypto. Often, it remains in safer assets (like bonds or gold), especially during times of uncertainty.
Quantitative Easing (QE): In addition to rate cuts, the FED’s Quantitative Easing (QE) program significantly increased liquidity, directly boosting stock markets and, to a lesser degree, crypto prices.Data Insight: Bitcoin’s price surged from $6,000 to over $60,000 between 2020-2021 as massive liquidity injections from QE programs fueled market speculation.
7. Geopolitical Stability
Geopolitical tensions can heavily influence risk assets. In times of global uncertainty, investors tend to flee from speculative assets like Bitcoin in favor of safe-haven assets like gold or the U.S. dollar. Rate cuts are often less effective when global instability is high.
Example: The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 triggered a flight to safety, driving Bitcoin lower despite low-interest rates.
8. Supply and Demand Dynamics for Bitcoin
Bitcoin, unlike fiat currencies or stocks, operates under a fixed supply model. Bitcoin halving events (where the reward for mining new Bitcoin is halved) reduce the available supply, which has historically led to higher prices in the subsequent year.
Historical Data:2016 Halving: Bitcoin rose from $400 to nearly $20,000 within 18 months.2020 Halving: Bitcoin surged from $9,000 in May 2020 to over $60,000 by March 2021.
9. Interest in Alternative Assets
When interest rates are low, traditional investments like bonds offer meager returns. This often leads to greater interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. As more capital flows into these assets, their prices tend to rise. However, if the FED raises rates, money might flow back into traditional assets, leading to a sell-off in crypto markets.
Data Insight: The 2020 crypto bull market coincided with historically low rates, causing a surge of interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin and DeFi platforms.
10. Technical Market Trends
Short-term movements in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are often driven by technical analysis, such as support/resistance levels, chart patterns, and volume indicators. These technical factors can overshadow economic fundamentals, leading to volatility.
Example: Bitcoin’s sudden drops of 20-30% are often triggered by technical patterns (like breaking key support levels) rather than macroeconomic news.
Historical Impact of FED Rate Cuts: Lessons from the Past
Let’s look at key historical examples of FED rate cuts and their broader impact on the economy and markets:
1. The Dot-Com Bubble (2001)
What Happened: The FED cut rates aggressively after the collapse of the dot-com bubble in early 2000. However, it took years for the stock market to fully recover, as overvaluation and economic imbalances caused prolonged stagnation.Market Impact: While rate cuts boosted liquidity, corporate bankruptcies and tech overvaluation limited the recovery.
2. The 2008 Financial Crisis
What Happened: After the housing market collapsed, the FED slashed rates to near zero and introduced QE. It wasn't until QE expanded the monetary base and propped up the financial system that markets began to recover.Market Impact: Rate cuts alone were insufficient; aggressive QE was needed to stabilize markets and ignite a decade-long bull run in stocks and eventually Bitcoin.
3. COVID-19 Pandemic (2020)
What Happened: The FED cut rates to zero and launched one of the largest QE programs in history. This led to a swift recovery in stock markets and a historic bull run for Bitcoin, which was fueled by massive liquidity and fears of inflation.Market Impact: The combination of low rates, liquidity injections, and fiscal stimulus led Bitcoin to surge from $6,000 to $60,000 in just 12 months.
Level of Rates Before Economic Collapse
One critical element in predicting how effective future rate cuts will be is understanding where rates stand before a potential economic downturn. If rates are already near zero (like during the COVID-19 pandemic), the FED has less room to maneuver.
Current State (2024): As of now, the FED funds rate is hovering around 5.25% after a series of rate hikes to combat inflation. If the economy begins to slow dramatically or inflation pressures subside, the FED has room to cut rates to stimulate growth—but will that be enough?
Current Economic Outlook and Risks for Bitcoin & Stocks
1. Inflation Concerns
Inflation remains a key driver of FED policy. While inflation has cooled from its 2022 highs, it’s still a concern. If inflation persists, the FED may not be able to cut rates as aggressively as markets hope, which could weigh on both stocks and Bitcoin.
2. Corporate Earnings and Recession Fears
With mixed corporate earnings and slowing economic growth, the risk of recession looms. A slowdown in corporate profits or an uptick in bankruptcies could outweigh the benefits of rate cuts, leading to market corrections in stocks and Bitcoin.
3. Liquidity and Geopolitical Tensions
Ongoing global tensions (e.g., between the U.S. and China) add uncertainty, which could drive investors away from risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Conclusion: The Market is Complex, and Rate Cuts are Not the Only Answer
While FED rate cuts can boost liquidity and borrowing, they are not a silver bullet for driving stocks and cryptocurrencies to new highs. The broader economic context—such as inflation, corporate earnings, geopolitical stability, and Bitcoin’s own supply-demand dynamics—plays a crucial role in shaping market outcomes.
For investors, a more comprehensive approach that considers these multiple factors—rather than focusing solely on interest rates—will lead to more informed and successful strategies in both the stock market and the volatile world of crypto.
#FOMC

Further Readings :

1. The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart EXPOSED : What Your Favourite Analysts WON'T Tell You
2.ALTSEASON Gold Rush: How to Find the Hidden Gems and Avoid the Scams
3.ALTSEASON ALERT: 7 Shocking Indicators That Will Reveal When the Next Altcoin Boom Will Hit
4.Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: Crash or New ATH? MACD and RSI Give Clear Signals
5.The Shocking Truth About BTC's Hidden Connection to Gold, Stocks, and Cryptos

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and may lead to substantial financial loss. Always perform your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of the publisher or its affiliates. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves inherent risks, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please exercise caution.

Intraday trading is a method of investing in cryptocurrencies where the trader buys and sells cryptocurrencies on the same day without any open positions left by the end of the day. Hence, intraday traders try to either purchase a cryptocurrency at a low price and sell it higher or short-sell a cryptocurrency at a high price and buy it lower within the same day. This requires a good understanding of the market and relevant information that can help them make the right decisions. In the cryptocurrency market, the price of a cryptocurrency is determined by its demand and supply among other factors.
Tools such as candlestick chart patterns offer great help to traders. We will talk about these Candlestick Charts and offer steps to help you read them.

What are Candlestick Graphs/Charts?
Candlesticks are a visual representation of the size of price fluctuations. Traders use these charts to identify patterns and gauge the near-term direction of price in the cryptocurrency market.
Composition of a Candlestick Chart
This is how a candlestick chart pattern looks like:


As you can see, there are several horizontal bars or candles that form this chart. Each candle has three parts:
The BodyUpper ShadowLower Shadow


Also, the body is colored either Red or Green. Each candle is a representation of a time period and the data corresponds to the trades executed during that period.
A candle has four points of data:

How to Analyze Candlestick Chart for Cryptocurrencies
The body of the candle in a candlestick chart represents the opening and closing price of the trading done during the period for a particular cryptocurrency. Understanding this is crucial for candlestick trading. Traders can quickly see the price range of the cryptocurrency for the said period by looking at the chart. Moreover, the color of the body indicates whether the price is rising or falling. For instance, if a candlestick chart for a month with each candle representing a day has more consecutive red candles, then traders know that the cryptocurrency's price is falling.
Vertical lines called wicks or shadows above and below the body show the highs and lows of the traded price of the cryptocurrency. Traders can use this information to analyze the sentiment of the market towards the cryptocurrency.
Candlestick Chart Patterns
Candlestick charts are an excellent way of understanding investor sentiment and the relationship between demand and supply, bears and bulls, greed and fear, etc., in the cryptocurrency market. Traders must remember that while an individual candle provides sufficient information, patterns can be determined only by comparing one candle with its preceding and next candles. To benefit from them, it is important that traders understand patterns in candlestick charts.
Let's divide the patterns into two sections:
Bullish PatternsBearish Patterns
Analyzing these patterns can help traders make informed decisions about buying or selling cryptocurrencies.
Bullish Patterns
Hammer pattern
This is a candle with a short body and a long lower wick. It is usually located at the bottom of a downward trend. It indicates that despite selling pressures, a strong buying surge pushed the prices up. If the body is green, it indicates a stronger bull market than a red body.


Inverse Hammer pattern
This is a candle with a short body and a long upper wick. It is usually located at the bottom of a downward trend too. It indicates buying pressure followed by selling pressure. It also indicates that buyers will soon have control.


Bullish Engulfing pattern
This is a pattern of two candlesticks where the first candle is a short red one engulfed by a large green candle. It indicates a bullish market that pushes the price up despite opening lower than the previous day.


Piercing Line pattern
This is a two-candle pattern having a long red candle followed by a long green candle. Also, the closing price of the second candle must be more than half-way up the body of the first candle. This indicates strong buying pressure.


Morning Star pattern
This is a three-candle pattern that has one candle with a short body between one long red and a long green candle. There is usually no overlap between the short and the long candles. This is an indication of the reduction of the selling pressure and the onset of a bull market.


Three White Soldiers pattern
This is a three-candle pattern that has three green candles with small wicks. These candles open and close higher than the previous day. After a downtrend, this is a strong indication of an upcoming bull trend.


Bearish Patterns
Hanging Man pattern
This is a candle with a short body and a long lower wick. It is usually located at the top of an upward trend. It indicates that the selling pressures were stronger than the buying thrust. It also indicates that bears are gaining control of the market.


Shooting Star pattern
This is a candle with a short body and a long upper wick. It is usually located at the top of an upward trend too. Usually, the market opens higher than the previous day and rallies a bit before crashing like a shooting star. It indicates selling pressure taking over the market.


Bearish Engulfing pattern
In candlestick chart analysis, this is a pattern of two candlesticks where the first candle is a short green one engulfed by a large red candle. It usually occurs at the top of an upward trend. It indicates a slowdown in the market rise and an upcoming downtrend. If the red candle is lower, the downtrend is usually more significant.


Evening Star pattern
This is a three-candle pattern that has one candle with a short body between one long red and a long green candle. There is usually no overlap between the short and the long candles. This is an indication of the reversal of an upward trend. This is more significant if the third candle overcomes the gains of the first candle.


Three Black Crows pattern
This is a three-candle pattern that has three consecutive red candles with short wicks. These candles open and close lower than the previous day. After an upward trend, this is a strong indication of an upcoming bear market.


Chart patterns can be used to understand trends and sentiment of the cryptocurrency markets. There are several other patterns to explore in order to gain a deeper understanding of market movements. Use this as a starting point and continue to learn and refine your analysis skills.

Happy trades and successful investments!💪👊
@Crypto Insiders

#candles #BTC $BTC

$ETH


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