In February 2021, I randomly found a piece of paper in a hotel on a business trip and simply drew the time nodes and multiple difference analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycle. That day, I studied the previous two bear and bull cycles of Bitcoin. It was already in a bull market at that time, so I made an inference on the possible time point of the highest point of the bull market that year. At that time, I concluded that we were in the upward range of the third bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin at this time, and the highest point would definitely occur in a certain period of time. At that time, I had already locked the time of Bitcoin's highest point in November 2021 (of course its highest point turned out to be 69,000, and I overestimated it by more than 20,000 US dollars). This is also the reason why I gradually cleared out the Bitcoin position from mid-November to early December 2021 when it was around 60,000, leaving only 10% of the position that I have held until now. Regarding the detailed inference at the beginning of 2021 when predicting the highest point of the bull market at that time, I published it that month. The following is a screenshot of the analysis that year. (Many people in last year’s big bear market didn’t realize until they looked back that November 2021 was the month when the last bull market ended?) In the afternoon, I reviewed the first three bear-bull cycles of Bitcoin from 2011 to 2021, and the first three Bitcoin declines. The correlation between half time and the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. The start and end time of the next bull market cycle has basically been determined again. As the saying goes, experience is the best teacher, sometimes better than technology. Please firmly believe that Bitcoin’s fourth bull market cycle will officially start in May next year, and will still end in November-December 2025. Under special circumstances, it will be postponed to January of the following year. It is undeniable that all bull markets since the birth of Bitcoin have ended almost from the end of one year to January of the following year. When I reviewed the characteristics of the first three Bitcoin bull cycles, I also looked at the operating characteristics of the first three halving cycles of Litecoin. Combined with the characteristics of this month, I also affirmed a conclusion: Litecoin’s halving time this year is The trend is completely in line with its historical cycle operation rules (the specific characteristics were posted on the afternoon of July 31). Therefore, we don’t need to be too anxious about the current volatile market, don’t be depressed, and get through the next half of the year, and we can welcome the highlight moment again in the first half of next year! 💪Believe in the big cycle operation rules of Bitcoin, this is your true belief in it!
Sol just reached 245, and it will fall back to 241.25-240.25 to add some positions. Defend 239.50, and reduce the added positions if it breaks, and take it back at 238.85. Although the loss is small, it avoids a slightly heavy position. If it rebounds to 247.50, 249.25/249.50, you need to take more than half of the profit, otherwise it will fall back to 242-238 to add positions in the second half of tonight, and the position will become passive if it becomes heavy. The remaining position will chase 252.50-254.25.
Sol has never let you down. Is it true that you can get rich just by being a good Sol? I asked this question a year ago, and the answer is yes. The first pot of gold was grabbed at the end of last year, and the second pot of gold is grabbed at the end of this year. It's not too late for you to recognize it now. You can't imagine the huge surge next year.
If you place a low-long order late at night after placing an order on Sunday, the market will start to rebound at 6 am and stop profit at 9-10 am on Monday. This time point is generally the highest point of the rebound. After stopping profit, wait for 11-15 o'clock to enter the market after the retracement. Generally, the market will rebound during the European and American trading hours from 16:00 to 22:30. Stop profit when the market rebounds to 24 o'clock. Place an order again to intervene when the market retraces in the second half of the night, and stop profit when the market rebounds during the day on Tuesday. Generally, it rises on Monday and Tuesday, goes sideways on Wednesday, and pulls back on Thursday and Friday (because of the information).
BTC is a living organism like a human being. It is impossible for it to rise continuously for 24 hours or fall continuously for 24 hours. It divides 24 hours into 4 periods of rise and fall on average. For ultra-short-term traders, there are at least 4 trading opportunities to make money every day.
When it rises, you can regard it as running. When it is tired, it will stop to rest and then run again. The moment it stops to rest is your chance to abuse (enter the market) it without any effort. When it runs, don't chase it, because if it runs you also need to run, which will consume more of your energy. If you personify BTC, it will be easy to understand the difference between chasing up and buying down.
After Trump was elected, DOGE got rid of the constraints of synchronous ETH's rise and fall, and closely linked with BTC. When BTC is strong, DOGE is strong. Therefore, every small step back of DOGE is also a low-long opportunity, and the profit is not bad. BTC, SOL, and DOGE have become the three pillars of this bull market with the strongest elasticity and the most ideal upside potential.
At present, as long as BTC breaks through 91600, DOGE will continue to rush above 0.40. When BTC reaches 10w, DOGE will pull the market towards 0.56. Therefore, pay close attention to the effective breakthrough of this point in the short term. If it continues to not break, conservatively stop profit in batches to lock in part of the profit, and follow BTC to step back and cover the position synchronously.
Yesterday afternoon, someone asked if DOGE has finished adjusting. Here is a detailed answer:
DOGE has fallen back since it rushed to around 0.44 last time. It is adjusting at the daily level, and the callback is relatively mild, because the BTC market has a strong rebound every time it steps back.
Did DOGE reach the middle track of the 8-hour boll yesterday? That means the 8-hour adjustment cycle has been completed, and it is currently in the 12-hour level adjustment cycle.
Yesterday afternoon, DOGE rebounded, and the energy column below the 8-hour level had a hollow column. This morning, BTC rebounded and another hollow column appeared, which means that the downward momentum continues to slow down, but it does not mean that the callback has completely ended, because the 12-hour MACD dead cross opening is still downward and the volume is not strong.
DOGE 4-hour level was completed the day before yesterday, and it was supported by the lower track of boll. The lower track position of the 4-hour boll is 0.34, so it started to rebound from the callback near 0.44 to here. Why do we have to keep going back and going long in a bull market? Because the 4-hour level is the critical point of short-term changes and the watershed between longs and shorts. If the 4H macd does not fall below the zero axis, it will not fall deeply.
Looking at the daily level, the K-line is staggered downward with one positive and one negative. Yesterday was the fifth day of the callback to around 0.44. Yesterday, a green cross was closed. If a small positive line is closed today, the callback will be completely over, and you can rush up and cover your position at the market price.
Every time the callback reaches the 8- or 12-hour macd, it has basically reached the tail of the daily adjustment and is about to turn up. At this time, you can generally make a prediction in advance, and the bulls can prepare to buy the bottom. To be safe, the middle track position of the 12-hour boll (around 0.33650) is included in the coverage range. It also shows that the air force needs to escape. If you short the daily adjustment, it is safest to only eat the fish body, that is, you can stop all profits when it is adjusted to the 6- or 8-hour level.
Sol is very strong. It rose 28 points in one go at 3 or 4 pm, and then hit a new high of 239.50. It only fell back 3 points (the fall back to 237.25-236.65 in the afternoon was used to enter the first position), and then rebounded to 242.50, and then fell back to 237-236 again, and was ready to move above 240. There was an impulse to break through the historical high of 260 in one go. The car door has been welded shut, and the long position will not be released until 250-257/260.
sol For those who still have long positions in the morning, set 243.50 and 247.50 as the stop profit.
If the price falls back to 237.25-236.65, you can enter the first position or cover the position (about 5%). Enter the long position in batches at 234.50, 231.85, and 228.85. Defend 227.50. If it falls below, cover it at 226-224.
Next stop profit target: 243.50, 247.50, and set the stop profit at 259.25 for the remaining 30% of the position. If the price falls back halfway, the cover point will be updated later.
Today's rebound of sol can be regarded as a rebound, and it is about to break through the historical high! If it stands firmly at 257 in the near future, the door to the new high target of 300 will be open!
Every pullback in the bull market, whether it is a major or minor one, is for further rebound and continuous exploration of new highs. Therefore, try not to miss every small wave. If you only look at the big pullback points before you dare to go long, then you will miss this rebound this morning.
For example, BTC's 12-hour MACD has a dead cross, and the support at this level is 85250, and it may fall here in the future. But we can't just wait for the pullback to 85250 to enter the market to go long just because it may fall here. You know, the 12-hour level is a medium-to-large-level indicator, which runs very slowly, and it usually takes two or three days for its downward momentum to take effect. This morning, the rebound started after the pullback to 89300. After breaking through 89300, there is another rebound to 88666-88250. After this rebound ends, it will go down again, and it will fall through to 85250. Therefore, every pullback in the middle needs to be long and the profit is very good. The logic of going long after the pullback is now completely different from the shock period of more than half a year before Trump was elected. The previous pullbacks during the shock period were real declines and washouts, but now every pullback is for further rises and is a buildup of momentum. Based on this point, the idea of short selling should be weakened.
To make big money in spot trading, you must strike hard near the lowest price in each round of bear market, and this lowest price is based on the BTC market. When BTC falls to the lowest point in the bear market, the last 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve is used as a reference point. Spot trading bought at the lowest price in the bear market should be held through the alternation of bear and bull markets, and then the focus should be on long positions in the currency standard (for example, BTC has been longed intermittently from 17,000 to 90,000 now), making money with coins, and selling the profits earned from the currency standard in batches at highs in the middle and late stages of the bull market, and finally selling the principal of the currency standard contract. Therefore, I basically don’t buy a single spot in the bull market, I only sell but don’t buy.
Sol is the coin that has benefited me the most in this round. The profit is more than 10 million in almost two years. Although I bought BTC at 17,000, I didn’t continue to do the currency standard and had 18 coins blown up in the middle, so the profit is not as big as Sol. Sol was bought as soon as FTX crashed and fell to 8-13💲 the year before last. I bought the second hand when it rebounded and broke 82 last year. I never bought another Sol after that, so the cost has been maintained at the current average price of 46💲. I only bought a few hundred Sols in total before, but I have been doing long positions on the currency standard for more than a year. I basically started to do long positions from the lowest price, and I have earned more than 7,000 Sols in total, and I only started to sell them in batches when they were above 168.
When FTX crashed in the second half of the year before last, 99% of the people on the entire network were shouting that Sol would return to zero (including FTX's platform currency FTT). It took great courage to buy Sol at that time. But I only bought 100 Sols at that time. It can grow up later. It only started to show its edge after October last year. Because my characteristic is that I don't buy spot when it rises, but only sell when it falls, especially the mainstream cottage with the largest single-day decline, I will buy a little. Of course, luck also accounts for a part. If it is like Luna, then it will be gone. However, if you don't spend a lot of money to buy a single spot, and spread the risk, then there is no big problem.
I never play short-term or medium-term spot. In the early stage of the bull market, I only took BTC, ETH, and SOL to do long currency standard, earning currency with currency, always consistent, and sell the currency standard profit at a high position during the rise. With this method, every round of bear-bull alternation, I can earn 20 to 30 million in profit with a principal of one or two million.
I just saw a blogger say that Sol is the leader of gangsters. Nonsense. If it rises sharply, it is called a gangster? It is called a gangster if it does not rise in the bull market, okay?
Sol is the real second cake in this round. Don't you know that Sol will replace ETH in this round? If you compare the trend of ETH in the bull market of 2020-2021 with the trend chart of Sol in this round, you will know that the two are a perfect match. Whether it is gas fees, flexibility or capital advantages, ETH has been gradually replaced by Sol. I talked about this at the end of last year, when the price was still around 70-80. In 4 years, Sol will surpass ETH in price. Learning is like sailing against the current. If you don't advance, you will retreat. BTC and Sol are moving forward, ETH is constantly regressing in the opposite direction, and the gap is getting bigger and bigger. It only takes a bear-bull alternation for the throne of the second and third cakes to rotate.
If you have been doing long positions in sol currency standard like me (13 months). As long as the price keeps reaching new highs, you should continue to sell the profits in currency standard at high prices every day and stick to it. You can lock in most of sol's spot profits at high levels during the bull market cycle. At the end of the bull market, you can sell the chips in currency standard. In this way, sol can achieve your dream of wealth in this round.
I set the stop profit too early in the morning, and I chased it when it reached 221. I made a small profit of 48 sols from this small order. BTC also reached half of the stop profit. Don't enter the market at the current price after the stop profit. Enter again when it falls back to the night or tomorrow daytime.
Sol is the second cake. The strategy order was placed yesterday morning. It was pulled back this morning and the bottom was bought again. It directly pulled a small band and the resistance moved up to 240. It will stand firm at 257 in the short term, and there is a huge pump above. In the next year, the target is 300-800. Soar as much as you can, my fortune coin.
Several most important support points to watch next week:
1. BTC: 88350. If it falls below here, we should quickly go to 85250-84666 to buy the bottom. The low long between 88350 and 89300 is just a short long. You can leave first after the US stock market rebounds. If the position is very light, just go to 85250 and wait for the position to be covered. The rebound is expected to be around 3k points.
2. Sol: 204.85. If it falls below here, we should quickly go to 198-196 to ambush and enter the market. It will rebound quickly to around 204 when it first comes here.
3. ETH: 3016. If it falls below here, we should quickly go to 2992-2966 to enter the market. If it falls below 3k for the first time, it will quickly recover to 3066-3088 and above.
The characteristics of the bull market are sharp declines and fast recovery, so those who like to short should not chase the short at low positions. There is no unilateral decline at this stage.
The best performers in this round of bull market are BTC, SOL and DOGE. DOGE is a cryptocurrency culture. It has risen hundreds of times in the last four months. The probability of rising 20 times and breaking 1 in this round is very high. If the highest point of DOGE next year is 1💲, the lowest point of the next bear market will be 0.085-0.15💲.
ETH is useless in this round, so the second-tier copycats basically cannot get up. It grew from around 68 in the last round. Although its price is still around 3k now, it will die in the next round if it continues to follow this trend. Learning is like sailing against the current. If you don't move forward, you will retreat. BTC and SOL are both moving forward. It is not only not standing still but also regressing. Therefore, in the next bull market, SOL is likely to surpass ETH and become the real second cake. Although the conspiracy theory says that ETH is the currency of the Russians and the Americans want to set up SOL to kill it, this statement is not credible, but simply from the perspective of trend, elasticity and on-chain gas fee advantages, ETH is not as good as SOL. The trend of sol this round is very similar to that of eth last round. It is not a fantasy to reach 3000 in the next round. Breaking through 257 is a huge pump. Let's look at 300-800 next year.
Every four years, there is a bull market. My trading characteristics are very clear. I hoard spot stocks at the low point of the bear market and get them in the middle and late stages of the bull market. I only sell them in the middle and don’t buy them. I sell them in batches when they are high until they are sold out. The other 99% of the time, I focus on short-term contracts. Take sol as an example. I only bought 100 pieces when it fell to 8-13💲 the year before last. I only made up for it once last year and never bought another one since then. Now there are thousands of sol spot stocks (all earned by currency standard), and the cost is still maintained at 46.17. No matter how much it falls in the middle, I will not make up for the spot stocks. Only in the extreme halving market will I make up 10% of the position depending on my mood.
The interest rate will be cut in December, and Trump will be officially inaugurated on January 20 next year. There will be another wave during this period. After January next year to the second quarter, it will basically fluctuate at a high level. October-November next year will be the end of this round of bull market, and 2026 will enter the next round of bear market. It is easy to get rich every four years. Just follow the rhythm and enter and exit the market in time.
Last night and this morning, BTC gave a profit stop point of 91600. Today, it was suppressed near 91800 all day, so 91600 is today's escape point. Without further strong positive stimulation, when there is no special market that pulls 10,000 points overnight, it is still necessary to look at the pressure points one by one. Although it rushed to 93300 in one breath last night, judging from today's performance, 91600 has not yet stabilized. After stabilizing, it will go up to 92500-93600.
When there is almost no fluctuation in the sideways market, you can buy low at 89850 and 89150. The first important point below 9w is 88666. It was taken over once after a 5k point retracement in the second half of the night. It can still be taken over again when it is stepped back for the second time. After breaking here, go to the 86055-85250 area to enter the market.
Sol's highest point in the evening was also 222.50 to take profit and escape the top. There were no new highs yesterday and today, and the lows did not move down. The market is temporarily trading sideways. You can enter the market in batches at 214.50-210, and the take-profit point remains unchanged.