The current Bitcoin market, as of September 14, 2024, presents a nuanced picture characterized by a mix of positive and cautionary signals. On the bullish side, lower exchange reserves indicate reduced selling pressure, a sign that market participants may be holding their assets with expectations of further price appreciation. This is further supported by positive sentiment from US-based investors, as reflected in the Coinbase Premium, and strong demand from institutional funds and ETFs, indicated by the Fund Premium. These factors suggest that a solid base of buyers exists, which could help sustain or push the price higher in the near term.

However, there are also significant signs of caution that warrant attention. The higher-than-average exchange netflows suggest that more Bitcoin is being moved to exchanges, which could point to an increase in potential selling activity. This, combined with the realization of profits as indicated by the aSOPR metric, hints that some market participants may be looking to take gains off the table, possibly putting downward pressure on the price. Additionally, in the derivatives market, the negative funding rate signals a predominance of short positions, further pointing to bearish sentiment among leveraged traders.

On-chain data reflects a market in a phase of moderate unrealized profits, characterized by an “anxiety phase,” where participants are unsure whether to sell or hold. Long-term holders, however, remain relatively inactive, a positive sign as it suggests that these key players are not distributing their Bitcoin en masse.

The technical indicators, such as RSI and Stochastic, are currently neutral, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral stance from technicals could imply that Bitcoin is at a decision point, where the next price movement could be driven by shifts in market sentiment or significant news events.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

I'm excited to share my latest research on the "Inactive Supply Shift Index", a novel metric that promises to revolutionize how we understand Bitcoin market risks.

What did I do?

I dug deep into historical Bitcoin blockchain data, tracking inactive supply over various periods (namely, one to seven years). By computing weekly changes and stacking them into a composite metric, I crafted the Inactive Supply Shift Index.

Lately, the Inactive Supply Shift Index has reverted to values close to zero, following a period of deep negative readings that coincided with Bitcoin's price exceeding the $70,000 threshold.

Understanding the Shifts:

- Deep Negative Values: These readings flagged significant activity from long-term holders who, after patiently accumulating Bitcoin, began to sell as prices soared. This behavior is often seen as an effort to capitalize on market peaks, contributing to increased selling pressure.

- Reversion to Zero: The return to near-zero levels indicates a reduction in this selling pressure. It suggests a stabilization phase as the influx of Bitcoin from long-term stashes diminishes, paving the way for potential market equilibrium.

Insights into Market Dynamics:

- Peak Selling and Strategic Holds: A surge past key price points like $70,000 can trigger profit-taking among veteran holders. These shifts in long-term holder behavior often provide valuable clues about market sentiment and potential inflection points.

- Signaling Stability: As the index stabilizes, it may signal a pause in aggressive selling, providing fertile ground for renewed buyer interest and potential upward momentum, assuming market demand holds firm.

Utilizing the Inactive Supply Shift Index can empower traders, analysts, and investors to discern between ephemeral volatility and profound market trends. This understanding is crucial for making informed decisions and navigating Bitcoin's dynamic landscape.

Written by onchained

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has recently dipped below its 365-day moving average, a key level that historically signaled market bottoms and potential recovery zones. While this might seem like an opportunity for long-term investors, it's important to remain cautious.

Until the MVRV ratio breaks back above this critical threshold, a balanced and careful approach is necessary. In past cycles, reclaiming this level often marked the return of optimism, but current market conditions — including uncertainty especially around macroeconomic challenges — indicate that this recovery may take longer to materialize.

Therefore, maintaining a measured and balanced perspective is essential. A positive outlook is understandable, but it should be tempered with awareness of the broader risks until the MVRV ratio confirms a more sustained upward momentum.

Written by Kripto Mevsimi

📊 Bitcoin Realized Cap and UTXO Age Bands Analysis 🟠🟢🟣

This chart reveals Bitcoin’s price cycles to UTXO age bands. Key insights:

1️⃣ Market Peaks: A rise in short-term UTXOs (1d ~ 1w, orange) often signals market tops as short-term holders cash out at high prices.

2️⃣ Accumulation Phase: An increase in long-term UTXOs (1m ~ 3m, purple) indicates accumulation, where investors hold their coins, anticipating future gains.

3️⃣ Current Cycle: We see signs of accumulation, but short-term activity also rises.

🔍 Is another bull run coming? Monitoring these trends can give insight into potential future market movements.

Definition: The Realized Cap - UTXO Age Bands chart displays the distribution of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization across various age bands. Each colored section represents the proportion of UTXOs that were last moved within a specific time period. Realized Cap is determined by valuing each UTXO based on the price when it was last transacted. This metric provides a clear summary of the market share held by both long-term and short-term holders, helping to understand their behavior over time.

Written by IT Tech

The Puell Multiple is a valuable metric that compares the daily issuance of Bitcoin (in USD) to its 365-day moving average. It’s often used to spot potential market tops and bottoms based on miner profitability, which can significantly impact Bitcoin’s price movements.

In this chart:

- The blue line represents the Puell Multiple.

- The green boxes highlight periods when the Puell Multiple dropped to the lower bound (around or below 0.4), which often signals market bottoms and strong buying opportunities.

- The red shaded area at the top marks periods where the Puell Multiple is extremely high (over 4-6), often correlating with market tops and potential sell signals.

Summary:

The Puell Multiple is nearing levels where it historically signaled buying opportunities.

Investors looking for a long-term accumulation phase might interpret the current Puell Multiple near 0.4 as a sign that Bitcoin is undervalued, or at least nearing a market bottom.

However, it’s crucial to combine this with other metrics like on-chain data, macroeconomic conditions to make well-rounded investment decisions.

Written by Amr Taha

The STH SPOR is an excellent indicator for reading spent coins before the last 155 days after the previous purchase or recent investors who buy high and sell low. It measures the profit or loss dynamics of these investors and the sentiment regarding the market.

There is a characteristic in previous cycles, the formation of a bottom with values ​​within the range of 0.90 and 0.93 (I omitted Covid-19 as it is a marginal event and distorts the settings).

STH SPOR today has a "pessimistic sentiment" with more losses to be realized by these investors, but should we be worried?

For the price to rise, it must first fall and reach equilibrium!

➡️ Conclusion?

Optimistic! With a defined exhaustion bottom, bears reach their maximum pain in previous cycles, and losses remained below 1 for a long period **(between 2 to 3 months)** without positive recoveries, today we see sudden movements of rapid sales in a short period **(2 days)** with quick recovery. Suggests that STH has exhausted Bitcoin and needs to move in the short term. The batteries are getting charged for the bulls.

Written by Percival

Calm Before the Storm in Ethereum: Watch Out for the 0.015 Point in Funding Rates

When we examine the funding rate data for Ether over the past year, we observe two similar periods of calm before the storm.

Will September Tell a Similar Story?

Looking at the data from September 2023, we can see that the funding rate hovered between 0.002 and 0.005. This is quite a low rate for a bull cycle. Following this, as the funding rate settled above 0.015 (supported by the futures market), we witnessed Ether’s price surge from the 1,500s to the 4,000s. As we now look at September 2024, we notice that the funding rate has been at a similar level for nearly a month, starting from August.

Is the calm before the storm about to break?

✅ Conclusion

I can’t say if history will repeat itself, but there’s certainly a rhythm to it.

From our past experiences, we know that after the quiet (and holiday-filled) summer months, the crypto market tends to pick up in the last quarter. To see another parabolic rise in Ether, we need positive signals. The support from the futures market plays a significant role in such rallies.

We will wait for Ether's funding rate to rise above 0.015 to see if the calm before the storm breaks. A move above this level in funding rates is crucial for tracking healthy increases during bull markets.

Written by burakkesmeci

ETH Realized Price

Realized prices generally show us the average costs of investors. In this post, I will discuss the average costs of whales and smaller investors.

In the chart, you see four colored averages, each representing a different balance amount:

Pink Balance 100+: ETH Cost: $1,318

Green Balance 10k - 100k: ETH Cost: $1,868

Yellow Balance 1k - 10k: ETH Cost: $2,122

Purple Balance 100 - 1k: ETH Cost: $2,195

As we can see, there are three averages between $1,868 and $2,195, with whales having costs that are different from the others.

Looking at historical examples, Bitcoin realized prices had previously approached the $1,500 level several times before rising. Currently, ETH realized prices have approached these levels twice. If they approach again (between $1,868 and $2,195), it could represent a good buying opportunity.

Written by BlitzzTrading

The Estimated Leverage Ratio for Bitcoin has reached its highest level since the start of the year.

The Estimated Leverage Ratio is calculated as the ratio of the exchange's open interest to its coin reserves. This metric reflects the degree of leverage employed by market participants.

The recent increase in the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio suggests a growing trend among investors toward higher leverage in the derivatives market.

Written by EgyHash

The current Bitcoin market shows cautious optimism, with key indicators pointing to stability despite some short-term concerns. A decrease in Exchange Reserves indicates reduced selling pressure, a positive sign as fewer Bitcoins are available on exchanges. However, a rise in Exchange Netflow Total suggests more Bitcoins are being moved to exchanges, which could signal increased selling pressure soon.

Miners are showing confidence in the market. The Miner’s Position Index (MPI) reveals that miners are holding onto their Bitcoin instead of selling, reducing the available supply and supporting a bullish outlook.

On-chain indicators reflect a mix of caution and stability. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) shows the market is in an "anxiety phase," where participants are realizing moderate profits but remain cautious. Binary CDD is low, indicating that long-term holders are not moving their Bitcoin, suggesting confidence and market stability. Meanwhile, the aSOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) reveals that many sellers are transacting at a loss, which could signal capitulation, often a precursor to a market recovery.

Market sentiment is split. The Coinbase Premium is low, indicating weak buying pressure from U.S. investors. However, the Fund Premium is high, reflecting strong institutional demand, and the Korea Premium is also elevated, showing strong retail interest from Korean traders. While this could point to speculative behavior, it still supports overall buying pressure.

In the derivatives market, the **Funding Rate** shows that most traders are betting on price increases, and the rising **Open Interest** signals growing participation, which may further support the current price trend.

Technically, both the RSI and Stochastic indicators remain neutral, indicating no clear trend toward an imminent price move.

Written by CRYPTOHELL

This week, the mean Bitcoin transaction fee has reached its lowest level since 2011, falling to 0.00000695 BTC. Similarly, the mean Bitcoin transaction fee in USD has decreased to its lowest point since 2020, now standing at $0.37.

Additionally, the Fees-to-Block-Reward Ratio has dropped to 0.012, marking its lowest level in the past year.

Given that the Bitcoin block reward is halved approximately every 210,000 blocks (or roughly every four years), this situation underscores the need for the Bitcoin community to engage in a substantive discussion about the future of Bitcoin and its security budget.

Written by EgyHash

1. Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Declining

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have been decreasing significantly, a trend that often precedes price rallies. This reduction signals reduced selling pressure as investors move Bitcoin to cold storage, limiting the available supply. Historically, such movements have been followed by price peaks, suggesting that a similar scenario may be unfolding now.

2. Rising Stablecoin Reserves

At the same time, stablecoin reserves on exchanges are increasing, indicating that investors are preparing to buy. Stablecoins represent ready-to-deploy capital, and their rising presence suggests that traders are waiting for the right opportunity to enter the market. This increase signals strong buying interest.

3. Bullish Market Setup

The combination of shrinking Bitcoin reserves and rising stablecoin reserves sets the stage for a bullish price breakout. With reduced Bitcoin supply and growing buying power, the market is primed for a potential upward move. Historically, this supply-demand imbalance has led to significant price gains.

4. Conclusion

Decreasing Bitcoin reserves and rising stablecoin reserves indicate a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. As the market supply tightens and buying power builds, we could be on the verge of a price rally. Investors should stay alert for a potential breakout in the coming weeks.

Written by Tarekonchain

When we observe the funding rates of perpetual futures on the weekly chart, we can identify that the current moment of pessimism among derivatives traders has only occurred 6 times since November 2022.

When these rates are predominantly negative on a weekly basis, it signals that there is a greater demand for sell orders in futures contracts.

However, it is worth noting that all previous similar moments were periods where the selling force reached local exhaustion, establishing bottoms with significant returns in the following weeks.

Note that this does not guarantee that the price cannot vary below these levels, but it signals that by this metric, the price region with negative rates tends to be allocation opportunity zones.

Written by caueconomy

Over the past five years, the market has experienced a cumulative drawdown of 5.21% in the SPX and 4.10% in the BTCUSD pair in September. Market drawdowns have been driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, such as recession fears and Federal Reserve rate cuts, which intensified from late August into September.

Analyzing BTC Binary CDD, long-term holders remained inactive from early August until the first week of September, with CDD values of "1" indicating that long-term holders began moving funds for potential selling. However, Exchange Outflow (Mean. MA7) suggests that individuals move coins off exchanges, reducing selling pressure.

Amid ongoing recession concerns and the upcoming Fed rate cut decision hinges on U.S. CPI figures, funding rates declined in August and turned negative in early September, reflecting market caution ahead of the inflation report this week. CME's futures and options open interest also slightly decreased in the first week of September, with most exposure focused on 1-2 month call options.

From a technical perspective, the price is expected to trade within a broader range of $52,711 to $62,734 in September. Price impulses may target $49,754 if negative macro factors emerge or $65,645 if positive catalysts prevail.

Written by ShivenMoodley

USDT holdings on exchanges have increased rapidly since August. Considering that USDT did not show much fluctuation due to price fluctuations from March to July, this is a noteworthy change.

When stablecoins flow into exchanges and increase their holdings, it is generally interpreted as funds waiting to buy, which will have a positive effect on the price. Of course, increasing holdings does not necessarily mean the price will rise.

Because it is ‘standing-by funds,’ it should be noted that if the market trend is unclear or the global economy is difficult, there may be no purchases due to risk aversion.

Written by Yonsei_dent

The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross metric is forming higher lows—could this be signaling a potential upward movement?

When we examine the performance of the NVT Golden Cross metric this year, we observe that it has been making lower highs since March 31, 2024. Similarly, Bitcoin's price action has struggled to surpass its previous peaks. Could we be nearing the end of this phase?

As I search for an answer to this question, one detail caught my attention.

Since August 5, 2024 (during the Japan mini-crisis), the NVT GC has been forming higher lows, which is quite noteworthy. We are witnessing the NVT GC compressing within a triangle, which could suggest that the next price movement—whether upward or downward—will be sharp. I will continue monitoring this closely and provide updates.

Thank you for reading.

Written by burakkesmeci

Analysis of Short-Term Holders (STH) and Long-Term Holders (LTH) behavior over the past two weeks reveals several key trends:

➡️ Short-Term Holders (STH):

• Net Position Decrease: The last two weeks show a significant decline in STH net positions, indicating that short-term investors are selling their holdings in response to recent market volatility.

• Exiting the Market: Red areas on the net position chart illustrate that many short-term investors exited the market during these weeks, either realizing profits or losses.

• Risk Reduction: The decrease in STH positions may suggest that investors are becoming discouraged by volatility and are trying to reduce their risk.

➡️ Long-Term Holders (LTH):

• Net Position Increase: LTH net positions have risen, suggesting that long-term investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin.

• Accumulation as a Bullish Signal: Green areas on the net position chart indicate that LTH are increasing their holdings, which is a bullish signal for the market, as LTH are often seen as more stable and confident in their investments.

• Opportunity for Growth: The increase in LTH positions may indicate that long-term investors view current price levels as an opportunity for accumulation in anticipation of future growth.

📚 Summary:

• Short-Term Investors (STH): Reducing their positions, which may indicate uncertainty about the market’s direction.

• Long-Term Investors (LTH): Continue to accumulate, suggesting confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset.

📊 Possible Market Reaction:

• LTH Accumulation: Increased accumulation by LTH could lead to price stabilization and position the market for a potential rebound, while STH sell-offs may create short-term downward pressure on BTC prices.

The data shows a clear capital flow from weak hands (STH) to strong hands (LTH), signaling a market stability.

Written by IT Tech

Miners accumulate Bitcoin during certain periods and then send it to the exchange, a process known as "stacking and dumping". In March, April, and June these movements were carried out with coinciding values.

In Bitcoin's consolidation structure, miners generate profits by “stacking and dumping” given the low mining rewards, reducing the risk associated with Bitcoin price variations.

The arbitrage opportunity, buying on an exchange cheap and selling high on another exchange, generating profits in the trade as well as the use of the hedging strategy are also visible in these movements.

In the metric below, Bitcoin Fees to Reward Ratio, it is seen that when the block reward is distributed at these same times, miners send it to exchanges where they make profits, protecting capital from future short-term declines in Bitcoin.

Written by Percival

Net flow of Ethereum (ETH) on Derivative Exchanges, which is calculated as the difference between inflows (ETH deposited into the exchange) and outflows (ETH withdrawn from the exchange).

ETH Negative Netflow (Red Bars):

- Indicates that more ETH is being withdrawn from Derivative Exchanges, which might suggest reduced selling pressure, or reduce borrowing amounts for open new short sell positions.

Written by Amr Taha

The UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) Block P/L Count Ratio Model is a vital tool in the Bitcoin (BTC) market for understanding the overall profit and loss scenario. This model analyzes BTC's price movements and data indicating whether UTXO blocks are in profit or loss, helping investors grasp market trends and potential risks.

What is UTXO and Why is it Important?

UTXO represents unspent transaction outputs in Bitcoin transactions, reflecting the remaining balances after each transaction. UTXOs are key data points that determine the balance held by users on the Bitcoin network. The "UTXO Block Profit Count" and "UTXO Block Loss Count" metrics show whether these blocks are in profit or loss, providing insights into overall investor sentiment and market conditions.

Understanding the Graph Data

The "UTXO Block Profit Count" shows the number of UTXO blocks in profit, while the "UTXO Block Loss Count" shows those in loss. The ratio of these metrics reflects the market's overall profit/loss balance.

The graph includes 7-day, 30-day, and 365-day moving averages (SMAs) to indicate short, medium, and long-term trends. SMAs moving closely together suggest a potential sideways price movement in the short term, while a downward trend in the 365-day SMA points to a positive long-term outlook.

Current Market Evaluation

Bitcoin's price has been trending down recently, with the "UTXO Block Profit Count" also declining, indicating that many investors are currently at a loss. The increase in the "UTXO Block Loss Count" suggests continued market uncertainty.

In the short term, the proximity of the SMA-7d and SMA-30d indicates a market searching for direction, with potential sideways movement before a rise. The long-term downward trend in the SMA-365d suggests that Bitcoin still holds positive potential.

This concise analysis should provide a clearer understanding of the current market dynamics for Bitcoin investors.

Written by datascope