$BTC
It's funny how many people are trying to stretch an owl over a globe, building a million conspiracy theories about why only Bitcoin will grow, dominance won't decrease, and so on. An alt season is not something unique to crypto. The same 'alt season' occurs every cycle in the stock market, when at a certain moment the Russel2000 index (conditionally altcoins) outperforms the SP500 (conditionally Bitcoin from funds). When does this happen in the stock market? During a period of rate cuts and increasing the Fed's balance sheet (simplified - injecting money back into the system). The rate cuts have just started and will continue at least through 2025. The increase of the Fed's balance sheet (QE) has not yet begun, but since June, the pace of balance reduction has significantly decreased - from $75 billion a month to $20 billion a month. A decrease in the pace of balance reduction is always the first step before halting reduction and starting to increase the balance sheet. When there is more money in the system and it becomes cheaper, market participants' risk tolerance increases, that's when an alt season occurs, both in crypto and in stocks. The 3-year period of QT (balance reduction) and high rates is coming to an end. And approximately 1-1.5 years of rate cuts and balance sheet increases (QE) begins. Doesn't that sound familiar? In every cycle, Bitcoin's dominance grows for 3 years and falls for 1 year. Maybe instead of building conspiracy theories, we should read an economics textbook and understand that markets (regardless of whether they are stock or crypto, which is indeed a high-risk appendix to stocks) rise and fall not at the whim of some manipulator but follow macroeconomic and monetary cycles. And there you will find all your answers about the alt season - during 2025 there will be more money in the system, possibly significantly more, and it will be cheaper, hence the alt season, when Bitcoin's dominance will fall, altcoins will outperform Bitcoin, and the Russel2000 will outperform the SP500. Cyclicality in crypto, like in stocks, is not some myth but a banal reflection of the cyclicality of economic liquidity, which in turn is determined by the central bank's balancing act between inflation and unemployment.