LIVECoBit
@AJPV
Independent trader specializing in technical analysis.
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Let's not fool ourselves; as of today, Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset like the Yen or Gold. Rather, it's an asset that so far has largely avoided macroeconomic issues but tends to amplify declines when stock markets fall. While some investors seek diversification in cryptocurrencies, the reality is that Bitcoin has not proven to be immune to global risk events, and its high volatility is a clear reminder of that.
That said, this doesn't mean that sharp declines in the crypto market don't offer great buying opportunities. In fact, for traders with a long-term vision who understand market cycles, these corrections can represent excellent entry points. Buying in the midst of panic when prices are significantly lower is a strategy that has yielded good returns in the past, but it requires iron discipline.
#DCA
- Strategy: Analyze the crypto market to identify a good selection of coins to invest in when the macro environment is in our favor.
That said, this doesn't mean that sharp declines in the crypto market don't offer great buying opportunities. In fact, for traders with a long-term vision who understand market cycles, these corrections can represent excellent entry points. Buying in the midst of panic when prices are significantly lower is a strategy that has yielded good returns in the past, but it requires iron discipline.
#DCA
- Strategy: Analyze the crypto market to identify a good selection of coins to invest in when the macro environment is in our favor.
The Trader's Dilemma: Chasing notoriety or true freedom in the markets
When you start trading, you do it with a clear goal: to make money, to achieve that financial independence we all dream of. At first, your focus is on learning, analyzing the markets, identifying opportunities that allow you to grow your capital. But then, social media gets in your way. You begin to follow other traders, to share your own trades, your analyses, your wins, and your mistakes. Without even realizing it, you shift from being a market analyst to a content creator. You trade the time
Why ignoring Stop-Loss could destroy your trading account, and your sanity?
The defensive mode or stop-loss mechanism of Warren Buffet’s investment system, in broad terms, is based on investing in companies with a wide margin of safety. Investing with a large margin gives you the advantage of entering a company at a price point where its stock can’t drop much further, or if it does, it won’t be by much.
Then, it’s just a matter of sitting and waiting.
Of course, the challenge lies in selecting those companies with a sufficient margin of safety, as well as choosing the
Then, it’s just a matter of sitting and waiting.
Of course, the challenge lies in selecting those companies with a sufficient margin of safety, as well as choosing the
Keep an eye on the textbook bullish flag pattern that Bitcoin is forming on the weekly chart. As we can see in the chart, the price is about to break through the top of the channel, which would signal the start of Bitcoin’s bullish cycle.
This breakout will likely happen in October.
Needless to say, if Bitcoin takes off, the rest of the altcoins will follow suit.
#BTC☀
This breakout will likely happen in October.
Needless to say, if Bitcoin takes off, the rest of the altcoins will follow suit.
#BTC☀
There’s something fishy going on in the financial markets right now, and it could catch us off guard, sneaking in through the back door.
Since 2008, there hasn’t been a major crisis. It's been too many years without one. This has led many investors to become overly confident, with the feeling that nothing major is going to happen anymore.
The longer this feeling spreads, the worse it will be.
Some key central banks have already started cutting interest rates, and it is expected that they will continue to do so. Additionally, China has just injected liquidity into the market.
Real estate prices have never been higher, and despite this, buying continues at a strong pace, with many ignoring the high cost of mortgages.
If interest rates are lowered further and liquidity is injected, obviously housing prices should rise even more, and at a faster pace...
On the other hand, the lowering of interest rates and the injection of liquidity will fuel the stock market, which is also at historic highs...
And yet, the only market I see ready for a major rally is the cryptocurrency market. Starting in October 2024, Bitcoin's chart suggests it will break out of its flag formation on the weekly timeframe (which adds to the potential strength of the move).
And if Bitcoin rises, Altcoins will follow shortly after.
This, combined with rate cuts, liquidity injections, and global tensions, positions the crypto market as a safe haven where the world will start storing its money. This gives it tremendous upward potential, as only a small percentage of the global population currently owns cryptocurrencies.
Since 2008, there hasn’t been a major crisis. It's been too many years without one. This has led many investors to become overly confident, with the feeling that nothing major is going to happen anymore.
The longer this feeling spreads, the worse it will be.
Some key central banks have already started cutting interest rates, and it is expected that they will continue to do so. Additionally, China has just injected liquidity into the market.
Real estate prices have never been higher, and despite this, buying continues at a strong pace, with many ignoring the high cost of mortgages.
If interest rates are lowered further and liquidity is injected, obviously housing prices should rise even more, and at a faster pace...
On the other hand, the lowering of interest rates and the injection of liquidity will fuel the stock market, which is also at historic highs...
And yet, the only market I see ready for a major rally is the cryptocurrency market. Starting in October 2024, Bitcoin's chart suggests it will break out of its flag formation on the weekly timeframe (which adds to the potential strength of the move).
And if Bitcoin rises, Altcoins will follow shortly after.
This, combined with rate cuts, liquidity injections, and global tensions, positions the crypto market as a safe haven where the world will start storing its money. This gives it tremendous upward potential, as only a small percentage of the global population currently owns cryptocurrencies.
Why is it necessary to let profits run?
You know I risk a maximum of 0.5% of my total capital on each trading operation.
This may seem like little to many, but you must realize that if I were to lose 10 trades in a row, it would result in a 5% loss of the entire capital. That is a significant loss and not easy to recover from.
Risking 2% per trade would mean 20% of the total capital. And if recovering 5% is already hard, recovering 20% is much more difficult.
The key, therefore, lies in the amount of money. The vast majority of trader
This may seem like little to many, but you must realize that if I were to lose 10 trades in a row, it would result in a 5% loss of the entire capital. That is a significant loss and not easy to recover from.
Risking 2% per trade would mean 20% of the total capital. And if recovering 5% is already hard, recovering 20% is much more difficult.
The key, therefore, lies in the amount of money. The vast majority of trader
What type of trader are you?
Do you often find yourself wondering whether to let profits run, even at the risk of hitting your stop-loss, or to close the position when your target is reached?
When you trade with a target in mind, it’s typically because you enjoy the action (or you want to make quick money). This approach requires much more attention to the market compared to letting a position run and not constantly monitoring it.
Both systems can be completely valid. Their effectiveness, of course, depends firstly on the t
When you trade with a target in mind, it’s typically because you enjoy the action (or you want to make quick money). This approach requires much more attention to the market compared to letting a position run and not constantly monitoring it.
Both systems can be completely valid. Their effectiveness, of course, depends firstly on the t
Rate Cuts: Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Market Risks.
While the Fed's rate cuts might initially seem like good news for markets, there's a downside traders can't ignore. A rate drop often signals that the central bank sees cracks in the economy, hinting at a potential slowdown. This could mean economic growth is stalling, which eventually hits both businesses and consumers.
For investors, this weakens confidence. If the economy cools off too much, companies might see lower revenues and earnings, leading to a selloff in equities. Even though cryptos tend to benefit from a low-rate environment—more liquidity, and a search for higher returns—a full-blown economic slowdown could spark risk-off sentiment across the board. That means both stocks and crypto could take a hit as traders rush for safer assets. So, while a rate cut might give a short-term boost, it could also be the writing on the wall for broader market weakness.
#bitcoin☀️
While the Fed's rate cuts might initially seem like good news for markets, there's a downside traders can't ignore. A rate drop often signals that the central bank sees cracks in the economy, hinting at a potential slowdown. This could mean economic growth is stalling, which eventually hits both businesses and consumers.
For investors, this weakens confidence. If the economy cools off too much, companies might see lower revenues and earnings, leading to a selloff in equities. Even though cryptos tend to benefit from a low-rate environment—more liquidity, and a search for higher returns—a full-blown economic slowdown could spark risk-off sentiment across the board. That means both stocks and crypto could take a hit as traders rush for safer assets. So, while a rate cut might give a short-term boost, it could also be the writing on the wall for broader market weakness.
#bitcoin☀️
Why does the price bounce or pull back when it reaches a support or resistance level?
The market is pure psychology. In fact, prices on the chart represent the operational outcome of what traders’ minds perceive from their screens.
If one wins, another loses, and vice versa.
Therefore, logically, one will be right, and the other won’t.
Where am I going with this?
Every trader, even with the same information and charts, will interpret the market differently.
This interpretation depends on many factors: experience, others' comments, news, data, luck...
The goal is to make acc
If one wins, another loses, and vice versa.
Therefore, logically, one will be right, and the other won’t.
Where am I going with this?
Every trader, even with the same information and charts, will interpret the market differently.
This interpretation depends on many factors: experience, others' comments, news, data, luck...
The goal is to make acc
The power of a personalized trading routine: From many rules to one principle
"A routine is a set of rules applied consistently over a long period of time in pursuit of a result or goal."
What is the purpose of a routine?
- To discover what works for us and what doesn’t. (Very important: It must be personalized and never copied. NO trader is the same as another).
- To uncover that 20% that generates 80% of our results.
- To identify the core principles or essence of a subject.
Ideal number of rules:
There isn’t an optimal number of guidelines. It doesn’t have to be 10,
What is the purpose of a routine?
- To discover what works for us and what doesn’t. (Very important: It must be personalized and never copied. NO trader is the same as another).
- To uncover that 20% that generates 80% of our results.
- To identify the core principles or essence of a subject.
Ideal number of rules:
There isn’t an optimal number of guidelines. It doesn’t have to be 10,
Why backtesting and automated trading systems fail?
Backtesting is based on analyzing past data to find a formula or system that yields the highest success rate.
So far, so good, because you'll always find something that shows a positive percentage. The problem is that you won't know if it will behave the same way in the future. But chances are, it won't. In fact, many systems that you think work will stop doing so shortly after.
And that’s not even considering if the system becomes well-known in the trading community...
This happens because e
So far, so good, because you'll always find something that shows a positive percentage. The problem is that you won't know if it will behave the same way in the future. But chances are, it won't. In fact, many systems that you think work will stop doing so shortly after.
And that’s not even considering if the system becomes well-known in the trading community...
This happens because e
The charts are in control. Cardano has strong support at $0.27. As long as it doesn't drop below that level, buy orders remain in place.
Just like ADA, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, DOGE, and Solana, among others, are in a similar position, poised for a significant bullish breakout in the coming weeks
.
Pay close attention, especially in November.
Just like ADA, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, DOGE, and Solana, among others, are in a similar position, poised for a significant bullish breakout in the coming weeks
.
Pay close attention, especially in November.
Why should you always buy Bitcoin on every dip?
Just take a look at the historical weekly chart, and you'll see that the long-term trend has always been upward.
The same trend, with some differences, that the S&P 500 has always followed.
Dollar-cost average, and you won’t regret it.
#bitcoin☀️
Just take a look at the historical weekly chart, and you'll see that the long-term trend has always been upward.
The same trend, with some differences, that the S&P 500 has always followed.
Dollar-cost average, and you won’t regret it.
#bitcoin☀️
Investing in cryptocurrencies is about buying quality projects and holding onto them over time, resisting the urge to sell during both major drops and significant rises.
There are many articles predicting that certain projects will reach high valuations in a given time frame.
The more articles like this are published, the longer it will take for those valuations to be achieved.
There are many articles predicting that certain projects will reach high valuations in a given time frame.
The more articles like this are published, the longer it will take for those valuations to be achieved.
#Bitcoin is once again facing weekly resistances. Right now, after the recent rise, the outlook is optimistic due to the upward movement. However, let's not be deceived, as beginners often buy right at resistance levels only to see the price pull back afterwards.
Despite this, everything seems to indicate—since we are talking about weekly charts—that this rise could start in early November, making any dip a buying opportunity for the future.
It goes without saying that if Bitcoin rises, the rest of the market will follow suit.
Despite this, everything seems to indicate—since we are talking about weekly charts—that this rise could start in early November, making any dip a buying opportunity for the future.
It goes without saying that if Bitcoin rises, the rest of the market will follow suit.
As I mentioned earlier, Bitcoin was forming a bullish head and shoulders pattern. However, it was essential to wait for confirmation before entering a position because when a pattern does not confirm, it often leads to a sharp move in the opposite direction, as we are currently witnessing.
Bitcoin must not close below $60,000 on a weekly basis because, if it does, a bearish double top pattern would be confirmed, potentially driving its price down to $44,000.
Even so, a flag pattern could be forming, which, once completed, might lead to the long-awaited bull run, which I estimate will begin in early November.
Bitcoin must not close below $60,000 on a weekly basis because, if it does, a bearish double top pattern would be confirmed, potentially driving its price down to $44,000.
Even so, a flag pattern could be forming, which, once completed, might lead to the long-awaited bull run, which I estimate will begin in early November.
How discipline beat procastination in trading
Procrastination: It's the habit of delaying activities that need attention by substituting them with more irrelevant or pleasant ones.
In trading, it's very easy to fall into procrastination, which directly distances us from proper practice and, consequently, from achieving the main objective.
Passion: A very intense feeling that dominates the will and can disturb reason. A strong liking or inclination for something.
To overcome procrastination, you undoubtedly need to have passion for what y
In trading, it's very easy to fall into procrastination, which directly distances us from proper practice and, consequently, from achieving the main objective.
Passion: A very intense feeling that dominates the will and can disturb reason. A strong liking or inclination for something.
To overcome procrastination, you undoubtedly need to have passion for what y
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