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Essential for Bitcoin investment, key events of the week preview (12/30-1/5)

The annual delivery market after Christmas has passed smoothly, as major exchanges and traders in Europe and America stay away from the market, resulting in a slight downward trend in the cryptocurrency market and traditional capital flows being cut off. Various positive expectations for 2025 will gradually be fulfilled, and the inflow of traditional capital will continue to stimulate the cryptocurrency market.
The new regulations from the European Union require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures. Exchanges like Deribit need to improve KYC to operate normally.

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Key events of the week:

12/30 Monday

💼
The new EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures, with the "Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA)" regulation coming into effect.

1/2 Thursday

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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)

1/3 Friday

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U.S. December ISM Manufacturing PMI (23:00)

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Cryptocurrency market outlook:
Bitcoin continues to struggle below $100,000. This week is the New Year holiday, and major trading forces in Europe and America remain outside the market, leading to tight funding.
Last week, $18 billion in options expired in the options market, accounting for over 40% of total open interest. Now, large players and market makers have ample funds, making it difficult for IV to rise.

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In terms of the cryptocurrency interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently. Suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially during significant market movements.

[December 27th option delivery data]
150,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.69, the maximum pain point was $85,000, and the nominal value was $14.17 billion.
1.12 million ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.41, the maximum pain point was $3,000, and the nominal value was $3.74 billion.
Today is the annual delivery, and the last delivery of this year has $18 billion in options expired. The theme of this week is still adjustment. Because of Christmas and annual delivery, the overall market heat is low.
In 2024, Bitcoin has more than doubled its gains, especially the year-end market since November, which makes the entire market very optimistic about 2025. After Trump takes office in January next year, he will be the most crypto-friendly president in history. At the same time, crypto supporter Musk will also have greater energy. Whether it is the deeper integration of mainstream finance into crypto, or the US government and major giant companies reserve Bitcoin, it will have a huge positive impact on the entire crypto market.
According to the experience of previous bull markets, the next few months will be a bull market with sector rotation. I hope there will be more innovative products to promote the bull market of the entire crypto market. This will create wealth significantly stronger than the current bull market of mainstream currencies.
2025, the future is promising.

The differences in option skew across various maturities have been magnified. Since the bull market at the end of this year, the skew across maturities has remained very close, fluctuating around 5%, with most differences not exceeding 1%. However, with the recent adjustment, the differences have started to widen, and the short-term skew has decreased significantly.
These data indicate that the market's euphoria has clearly diminished, and participants in the options market have shown a weakening in optimism for January.

For more information on unusual movements in options indicators and block trading, you can follow our Telegram channel.
【Options Indicator Anomalies】
Anomaly Time: 2024-12-25
Anomaly Currency: ETH
Abnormal Information: 25d Risk Reversal June Current Value: 15.34% (
📈
3.11%)
Abnormal Description: A significant increase or decrease in the volatility skew of options with a delta of 0.25 triggers notification.

The Christmas holiday has begun in Europe and America, and traditional markets are entering a period of closure. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market has shown a significant increase driven by Bitcoin. During the Christmas holiday until the year-end settlement, liquidity is relatively poor, and the market's rise and fall require less momentum.
In terms of options, the short-term implied volatility is still lower compared to yesterday, and market makers are nearing the end of their position adjustments. Before the end of the year, the primary tone for implied volatility will be stability.
Currently, the biggest pain point for BTC is $84,000, and for ETH, it is $3,000. From the current perspective, the annual biggest pain point will definitely be invalidated, just like in previous years.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, major events this week preview (12/23-12/29)

This Wednesday is Christmas, and major exchanges in Europe and America will be closed. Crypto funds typically see outflows this week. Currently, ETFs are the main source of external funding in the crypto market, and the pressure from fund outflows on the crypto market is significantly higher than in previous years, with strong risk aversion sentiment in the market.

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Key events this week:

12/23 Monday

💼
MicroStrategy expected to join the Nasdaq 100 index

12/24 Tuesday

💼
Bank of Canada releases minutes from December monetary policy meeting (02:30)

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Reserve Bank of Australia releases minutes from December monetary policy meeting (08:30)

12/26 Thursday

💼
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)

12/27 Friday

💼
Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from December monetary policy meeting (07:50)

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Crypto market outlook:
Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000, Ethereum has fallen below $3,300, and this round of the bull market has not seen a significant correction yet. With tight funding during the Christmas holiday, a deleveraging market before Trump's inauguration cannot be ruled out, and the market sentiment is heavily risk-averse.
The options market has nearly $12 billion in options expiring, accounting for over 40% of the current total positions. Large traders and market makers are actively adjusting their positions, and paying close attention to the market can occasionally yield good bargain opportunities. The expected volatility for Christmas this week is not significant; the market is more focused on betting on the trends before and after Trump's inauguration at the end of January. Recently remains a good opportunity to buy options.

📌
In terms of the crypto interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently. Appropriate interest rate orders can be actively traded, especially worth paying special attention to when there is market movement.

[December 20th option delivery data]
21,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.87, the maximum pain point was $101,000, and the nominal value was $2.04 billion.
173,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.5, the maximum pain point was $3,750, and the nominal value was $590 million.
This week, BTC entered a correction after failing to hit $110,000. It was a cleanup of the more aggressive leveraged longs after stabilizing at $100,000. At the same time, the adjustment of altcoins has lasted for nearly a month. According to the experience of the previous bull market, a large correction of Bitcoin will usher in a altcoin season, but the intensity of Bitcoin's correction is still uncertain.
As Christmas and annual delivery are approaching, ETF funds have begun to flow out significantly, and market makers continue to adjust their positions. Recently, the proportion of large call option transactions is high, with an average daily share of more than 30%. More than 40% of options expire at the end of the year, and the large amount of margin released is likely to drive the implied volatility down. The cost-effectiveness of buying options in the next week will be very high.

This Thursday, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will successively announce their monetary policy decisions. The market unanimously believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25%, while the Bank of Japan has a 20% probability of raising interest rates this week, which has garnered significant market attention.
Recently, the severe depreciation of the yen has put considerable pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. As the main target in the foreign exchange arbitrage market, a rate hike will inevitably bring liquidity pressure to the market.
It is highly likely that all decisions will be favorable for the macro market, and hitting $110,000 this week seems promising. The main players in the options market are also increasing their positions for the end-of-year options ranging from $110,000 to $120,000.

【Weekend Bulk Order GPT Analysis】

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BTC Contract Strike Price: Call and put options frequently appear between $90,000 and $115,000, indicating high market expectations for volatility within this price range.

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ETH Contract Strike Price: Between $3,500 and $10,000, showing market expectations for significant fluctuations in ETH prices.

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Term: Concentrated term from 27DEC24 to 31JAN25, mainly trading in the short to medium term.

Bulk orders over the weekend are mostly long positions, with orders over $100,000 at the end of the month being predominant, and institutions are relatively optimistic about the market before the end of the year. Today, Bitcoin reached a new high, and based on options data, institutions have a strong expectation for $110,000 by the end of the year.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, key events of the week preview (12/16-12/22)

This week is a macro week, with a number of central banks led by the Federal Reserve about to announce interest rate decisions. Currently, the futures market shows a 99% expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. Other important data this week is also worth paying attention to, as the next interest rate meeting will enter the Trump cycle. During this period, it is also worth noting whether there will be significant fluctuations in the US stock market. Currently, ETF inflows are strong, and the strength of the US stock market is also favorable for cryptocurrencies.

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Key events of the week:

12/17 Tuesday

💼
US November Retail Sales MoM (21:30)

12/19 Thursday

💼
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Economic Projections Summary (03:00)

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Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (20:00)

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US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week (21:30)

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Bank of Japan Rate Decision Announcement

12/20 Friday

💼
US November Core PCE Price Index (21:30)

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US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final (23:00)

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Cryptocurrency Market Outlook:
Bitcoin has stabilized above $100,000, while Ethereum has failed to hold above $4,000. Last week, cryptocurrencies were relatively flat, although market inflows remain strong. As Christmas approaches, the market is undergoing year-end position adjustments. The options market is relatively stable, and block trades and market rates are worth monitoring. Currently, the implied volatility on major expirations is at a low level, and short-term implied volatility has clearly declined, presenting a good opportunity to buy options.

📌
Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, Bitfinex's interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially when there is market activity worth paying special attention to.

【December 13th Options Expiration Data】
21,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.83, maximum pain point is $98,000, notional value is $2.1 billion.
164,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio is 0.68, maximum pain point is $3,700, notional value is $640 million.
This week's market is primarily focused on adjustments, unlike last week, this week Bitcoin's adjustment is smaller, while altcoins have seen stronger adjustments. As the time approaches Christmas and the end-of-year expiration, market makers are starting to adjust their positions. Recently, the volume of large bullish options transactions has been relatively high, accounting for more than 30% of daily trading. In previous years, trading activity in Europe and the US during Christmas would significantly decrease; however, this year, the influence of US stocks on crypto has risen, which may make this phenomenon more pronounced.
The options market data over the past two weeks has consistently shown that market makers are being cautious. The volatile market has led to a slight increase in implied volatility for major expirations. Options are very suitable for short-term speculation at this time, and this week's main transactions are also short-term PVP, making the cost-performance ratio of buying options still very high.

Bitcoin investment essentials, this week's major events preview (11/25-12/1)

This week is Thanksgiving, with economic events and data concentrated on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. The US stock market is closed on Thursday and Friday. The recent market trends related to cryptocurrencies in US stocks have been significant, showing a high correlation with cryptocurrencies, so it is worth paying close attention to.

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This week's major events:

11/27 Wednesday

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Federal Reserve releases minutes of the November monetary policy meeting (03:00)

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Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision (09:00)

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US initial jobless claims for the week (21:30)

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US October core PCE price index year-on-year (23:00)

11/28 Thursday

🦃
Thanksgiving

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Cryptocurrency market outlook:
Bitcoin is just one step away from $100,000, still needing that last push. ETH also saw a significant rebound last week, driving altcoins to rise across the board. The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is gradually shifting back from Meme to the main market. There was a slight pullback over the weekend, but the market's absorption capacity is very strong, with bulls being very aggressive in the spot bull market.
The options market is relatively stable, and large trades and market rates are worth paying attention to. Currently, the implied volatility for major terms is at a relatively low level, making it a good opportunity to buy options during this strong bull market.

📌
Regarding the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, and suitable interest rate orders can be actively executed, especially during market movements that deserve special attention.

【November 22nd Options Expiration Data】
29,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio of 1.1, maximum pain point at $86,000, notional value of $2.84 billion.
164,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio of 0.65, maximum pain point at $3,050, notional value of $550 million.
Bitcoin continues to surge significantly, starting to challenge $100,000, and ETH also begins to lead altcoins in a rebound. IBIT options have started trading, and US funds are clearly flowing into ETFs, with multiple favorable factors strongly driving the spot bull market.
About 8% of positions are set to expire this week, with ETH's sharp rise causing a significant increase in IV for major ETH options, while BTC's major options IV remains relatively stable. The market sentiment is still extremely optimistic, and due to the overall market rally, the risk of Bitcoin retracement has somewhat eased.

$BTC Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, and it has become commonplace to see new highs every week. Solid spot buyers are bringing in external funds, pushing the price of Bitcoin like a bulldozer.
However, altcoins represented by $ETH are relatively weak, and Bitcoin's market share is rising during the bull market, which is a rare situation. Currently, BTC's short-term implied volatility is 65%, on par with ETH, which is also a rare occurrence, as generally, ETH's volatility expectations are greater than BTC's, but the long-term implied volatility still maintains a 6% difference.
Based on the above facts, it seems highly likely that the ETH exchange rate will continue to hit new lows in the short term.

[Weekend options market analysis]
This weekend, the cryptocurrency options market traded $550 million, with a premium of $4.4 million, which is a relatively active market on weekends.
The market rose moderately, and the market sentiment is very optimistic. Currently, the prices of BTC and ETH are fluctuating near the recent highs, and more and more traders believe that a breakthrough is imminent.
There are still two weeks left in the election, and Trump's chances of winning are getting higher and higher, which has brought good expectations to the market. After all, Musk, a strong supporter of Trump, is very friendly to cryptocurrencies, and the market is now pricing in Trump's victory.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, preview of this week's major events (10/21-10/27)

This week, the voices of Federal Reserve officials have obviously decreased, and the IMF-World Bank Annual Meeting is also worth knowing, but the market's expectations for the next rate cut are relatively unified, and this information has limited impact on the market.
The election is approaching, and Polymarket currently shows that Trump's approval rating is as high as 60%. According to the current progress, Harris's chances of winning will become smaller and smaller in the next ten days. However, the election is still very uncertain, and the IV of election cycle options is still relatively strong.

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This week's major events:

Monday, October 21

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Logan, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, at the 2024 Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) Annual Meeting (21:00)

Tuesday, October 22

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Schmid, 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, spoke on the economic and monetary policy outlook (05:00)

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IMF released the Global Economic Outlook report (21:00)

Wednesday, October 23

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The Bank of Canada released its interest rate decision and monetary policy report (21:45)

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ECB President Lagarde spoke on the European economic outlook (22:00)

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IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings held

10/24 Thursday

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BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the "Governors' Meeting" hosted by the IMF (04:00)

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Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on economic conditions (02:00)

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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

10/25 Friday

💼
U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value for October (22:00)

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Crypto market outlook:
The crypto market quietly returned to around $70,000 in October. It has failed to hit new highs many times this year. I wonder if this round of the U.S. election will be an opportunity for a breakthrough. Currently, the IV of the main term of Bitcoin is at a medium level, and the IV before and after the election is stable at 55%. This week is a good opportunity to lay out some medium- and long-term bullish positions.

📌
In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders of 20%. If you encounter a suitable interest rate order, you can actively trade it, especially when there is a market, it is worth paying special attention.

The US election is approaching, and all statistical channels show that Trump is leading in the competition, but the US election still has great uncertainty.
Datalab options data shows that BTC's at-the-money option IV is 57% in the election week, while the at-the-money option IV in the week before the election is only 47%. The market has given a 10% IV difference for the election.
The current term structure also illustrates an implicit market view: the market will not fluctuate too much before the end of the election. Market trading volume also illustrates this point. Even if the rally is good this week, big investors are unwilling to bet on continued gains.

Essential for Bitcoin investment, preview of this week's major events (10/14-10/20)

This week, there are still intensive speeches from Federal Reserve officials, but the market's expectations for the next rate cut are relatively unified, and this information has limited impact on the market.
The election is approaching, and the market needs more election information to make a decision. Currently, polls show that Harris's approval rating is 2%, while Polymarket shows that Trump's approval rating is 10%. Crypto's innovation of the traditional world is still developing.

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This week's major events:

Monday, October 14

💼
2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari participated in an expert panel discussion (21:00)

Tuesday, October 15

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Federal Reserve Board member Waller spoke on the economic outlook (03:00)

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2024 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly spoke at an event hosted by the New York University Stern School of Business (23:30)

Wednesday, October 16

💼
Federal Reserve Board member Kugler spoke (01:00)

💼
UK September CPI (14:00)

10/17 Thursday

💼
Eurozone September CPI (17:00)

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ECB announces interest rate decision (20:15)

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U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30)

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U.S. September retail sales monthly rate (20:30)

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ECB President Lagarde holds monetary policy press conference (20:45)

10/18 Friday

💼
2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks (22:00)

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Crypto market outlook:
The crypto market is still volatile in October, and there are no hot spots in major speculative markets. At present, the IV of the main term of Bitcoin is at a medium level, and the IV before and after the election has also declined significantly. It is a good opportunity to lay out some medium- and long-term bullish positions this week.

📌
In terms of the crypto interest rate market, the Bitfinex interest rate market has been relatively stable recently, with occasional high-interest orders of 20%. If you encounter a suitable interest rate order, you can actively trade it, especially when there is a market trend, it is worth paying special attention to.

After yesterday's continuous rise, a large number of large transactions appeared in the crypto options market, with transactions exceeding $1.2 billion in the past 24 hours.
Among them, the transaction volume of Bitcoin put options was the largest, reaching $530 million, accounting for a quarter of the total transaction volume on the day.
Among them, the largest transaction had a nominal face value of $66 million,

🔴
Sell
🔶
BTC-28MAR25-40000-P
📉
x500.00 @ ฿0.0130, IV: 60.50

🟢
Buy
🔶
BTC-27DEC24-40000-P
📉
x500.00 @ ฿0.0042, IV: 67.85
This transaction is a deeply out-of-the-money calendar. The trader received a premium of $300,000 and was bullish, but the trader's intentions could not be guessed too accurately.
Overall, the recent option sellers are still stronger, especially the bearish price is very good.
The cost of buying a put option is lower, but the lower option cost also means that most people in the market are not optimistic about this direction.

[October 11th option delivery data]
18,000 BTC options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.91, the maximum pain point was $62,000, and the nominal value was $1.1 billion.
212,000 ETH options expired, Put Call Ratio was 0.4, the maximum pain point was $2,450, and the nominal value was $510 million.
Cryptocurrency continued to be weak, and the current $60,000 key point was fiercely contested. ETH was also near the long-term support line of $2,300, and the market may change overnight. The market conditions in the first two weeks of the fourth quarter of this year were not good, and the options market was also relatively sluggish. The current option holdings have fallen to a new low in 23 years. However, the sluggish market also breeds new trading opportunities. Now the BTC par IV on November 8 is only 50%, which is very suitable for low-level opening of some medium- and long-term bullish positions.
This week, bulk bullish transactions have gradually become active, and there is a high probability of market conditions before and after the US election.