Important information in the cryptocurrency circle within 24 hours:
1. Robinhood CEO said that Trump's coming to power will accelerate the transfer of RWA assets to the chain. 2. John Paller, founder of ETHDenver, said that Trump's policies may create ideal conditions for the booming development of DeFi.
3. Data: In December, the number of Bitcoin hoarding addresses increased by 225,000;
4. Analysis: Bitcoin derivatives data suggests prices could break through $105,000;
5. The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%;
6. Analysis: If Bitcoin rises to $138,000, Mi-croStrategy's market value will exceed Starbucks and Nike;
7. In November, the monthly trading volumes of BTC and SOL both hit record highs, while the monthly trading volume of ETH fell by about 50% from the peak in 2021.
According to (Forbes) reports, the seven major predictions for cryptocurrency in 2025:
⚫️ Strategic Bitcoin Reserves: Major countries in the G7 or BRICS are likely to include Bitcoin in their reserves, marking a shift in sovereign wealth management.
⚫️ Growth of Stablecoins: Driven by regulatory clarity and global trading demand, the supply will double, exceeding $400 billion.
⚫️ Bitcoin DeFi Expansion: The second-layer network will release DeFi opportunities, with TVL exceeding $24 billion, making Bitcoin's native participation in DeFi possible.
⚫️ Surge in ETFs: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will grow, and new ETFs focused on cryptocurrencies (including those supporting staking and diversified index funds) will emerge.
⚫️ Seven Heroes Against Bandits Using Bitcoin: A leading tech giant (like Apple or Microsoft) will add Bitcoin to its balance sheet using new fair value accounting rules.
⚫️ Cryptocurrency Market Value: Driven by AI, DeFi, and decentralized application innovations, the total market value will exceed $8 trillion.
⚫️ U.S. Cryptocurrency Recovery: The end of restrictive policies and new SEC leadership will make the U.S. a global center for blockchain startups and token issuance.
The Japanese government stated: They remain cautious about holding Bitcoin in national reserves, citing that cryptocurrencies are excluded from the foreign exchange category and concerns about safety, liquidity, and volatility.
Elon Musk stated that his GDP will not destroy the U.S. job market: "The potential is limitless".
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov confirmed yesterday (Wednesday) that Russian companies are circumventing Western sanctions by using Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for international trade settlements.
Mainstream Coin Analysis
The BTC ETF has seen net outflows for four consecutive days; notably, BlackRock's main ETF — IBIT had a net outflow of $180 million on December 24, marking the first major sell-off by BlackRock in over a year.
Ethereum ETF is different; overall there has been net inflow over the past four days, especially BlackRock's ETHA is still steadily increasing, indicating that institutions are preparing for a possible style shift next year.
These two days are Christmas, with poor liquidity, leading to the current suppression zone, and on the verge of a breakout! There is a high probability that it will break through again and reach a new historical high. Today's focus is whether it can break the support zone; if it cannot, do not blindly short it.
Ethereum is currently performing moderately; the post-holiday period is crucial. Following the logic of the second phase of a bull market, it is indeed time for a strong rebound; the strong resistance levels are around 3700 and 4100, and gradual breakthroughs will create opportunities for new highs, triggering an altcoin season.
Bitcoin:
2024.12.26 Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Latest Market Analysis
Current price of Bitcoin is 98504, and it is currently 8 PM Beijing time.
Daily Level: After a significant rise the previous day, the market entered a consolidation phase due to the Western market's adjustment, which is a normal market state.
The daily level trend remains unchanged; the current adjustment is to digest the previous rise and is part of the bottoming process, benefiting future market explosions.
As long as the price does not break below the adjustment bottom (i.e. 97200 points), the bullish trend will continue. The 4-hour line is currently in an adjustment phase, with the K-line center gradually rising, indicating that this adjustment is preparing for the next wave of increase.
Bitcoin has broken through 99000 four times from yesterday to today, aiming to return above the 100000 line but has not succeeded. There are ideas but also pressure.
Currently, the four-hour Bollinger Bands have shown an upward trend since a significant pullback from 108000; however, the KDJ sensitive line has a downward insertion intention, and it should pull back to around 97800 in the short term before building momentum for a rebound past the 100000 defense line.
Intraday Trading Advice: Continue to hold short positions at high levels, with a focus on the support range of 92300-94700 points below, and resistance levels of 95600-97100 points above.
Ethereum:
2024.12.26 Ethereum (ETH) Evening Latest Market Analysis Reference
Current price of Ethereum is 3371, and it is currently 8 PM Beijing time.
Daily Level: After a significant rise the previous day, combined with the Western market's closure, the market has entered a slight adjustment phase.
Slight fluctuations align with the demand for a bottoming process for future increases, overall still bullish. Continue to maintain a bullish stance in the short term.
4-hour line: Currently, Ethereum's price is fluctuating in the range of 3440-3540 points, and low-level fluctuations help the market build a bottom, accumulating momentum for future rises.
The trend of ETH is incomplete; it needs to break out above 3500 to form a complete wave that will generate fluctuations around 3500-3700.
Intraday Trading Advice: Continue to hold bearish positions at high levels, focusing on the support range of 3420-3400 points and resistance range of 3250-3100 points.
Altcoins:
In terms of altcoins, adjustments are linked, the capital situation is average, speculative sentiment is low, and mid to long-term positions can continue to be held. For the upcoming market, everyone should make plans:
1: Bitcoin and altcoins rise together, probability: 30%-40%
If 2025 becomes a one-sided bullish market, with Bitcoin continuing to rise and altcoins performing well, we might see a repeat of the comprehensive rise of the past two months.
Action Plan: Buy quality altcoins on dips, seize opportunities for layout.
2: Bitcoin rises, altcoins have limited gains, probability: 50%-60%
This is similar to the market in 2024; the market may still experience fluctuations in the coming months, but overall it is more optimistic than in 2024 (due to Bitcoin's continuous rise). Certain sectors will perform well.
Action Plan: Buy selected altcoins on dips, avoid overheated areas, and look for the next potential direction.
3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins decline, probability: 20%-30%
If this is the peak for altcoins, Bitcoin may continue to rise strongly while altcoins perform weakly.
Action Plan: Decisively clear out altcoins; despite potentially facing some pullback, if altcoins lack upward momentum, timely stop-loss is still necessary.
1. Overall Market Trend
BTC drops and rebounds, altcoins decline broadly. The market's main line revolves around DeFi and AI. Sun Yuchen sold $250 million worth of ETH.
U.S. stocks are closed all day on Wednesday for Christmas.
2. Market Hotspots:
1. Middleware PHA surged. PHA collaborated with Eliza, and several new AI projects are related to PHA.
2. Stablecoins usual and LQTY are rising. Usual's TVL exceeds $1.6 billion, and mining contract hedging is being forced to close.
3. DeFi's COW is rising and is being hyped as the smallest market cap Trump concept.
4. Platform token BGB surged, ecosystem wallet BWB followed suit. BGB's market cap of $12 billion surpasses OKB.
5. DESCI's URO and RIF surged. The BIO on BN will airdrop to sub-tokens URO, RIF, and VITA.
6. Public chain Berachain has launched deposit ETH (BTC in the future) mining, but withdrawals cannot be made for three months; the mainnet launch in the first quarter of next year will airdrop.
Five Major Laws of Speculating in the Coin Circle
Law One: Rapid Rise and Slow Decline for Accumulation
The speed of price increase is rapid, while the speed of decline is slow; market makers are accumulating for future growth.
Law Two: Rapid Decline and Slow Rise for Selling
Rapid decline and slow rise indicate market makers are unloading, and the market will enter a downturn.
Law Three: Top Volume Without Volume Secrets
Volume at the top may still have momentum; there is no need to rush to sell; without volume, momentum is exhausted, and it is advisable to exit quickly to avoid risks.
Law Four: Caution with Volume at the Bottom
Volume only at the bottom may indicate a temporary pause in decline, not suitable for buying; sustained volume influx may consider entry.
Law Five: Speculating on Coins and Market Sentiment Reflects Common Understanding
Speculating on coins is essentially speculating on market sentiment; trading volume reflects market consensus and investor behavior patterns, dominating coin price fluctuations.
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