Asset management firm VanEck stated that if the U.S. establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins according to the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the U.S. could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin will reach 25%, amounting to $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. Treasury bonds will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, and Investment Analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: "By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of Treasury bonds, offsetting about $42 trillion of debt."
It is expected that from 2025 to 2049, U.S. Treasury bonds will increase alongside the growth of Bitcoin reserves. Source: VanEck
"Optimistic" forecasts suggest that Bitcoin's 25% CAGR will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin's current trading price is $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point indicated by VanEck.
The price of Bitcoin rising to $42.3 million means it would account for about 18% of global financial assets—far higher than its current share of about 0.22% in today's $90 trillion market.
It is estimated that the CAGR of U.S. Treasury bonds and Bitcoin reserves, as well as the value of Bitcoin, will be 25%. Source: VanEck
The new Trump administration proposed the idea of Bitcoin reserves, which pushed the Bitcoin price above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers claimed earlier this month that Trump might issue an executive order on his first day in office designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis bill, the U.S. could repurpose the 198,100 Bitcoins held due to asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 Bitcoins could be financed through emergency support functions, selling part of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for Bitcoin, or both—none of which require printing money or taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the adoption of Bitcoin at the state, institutional, and corporate levels in the U.S. will also boost the CAGR estimates for Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in a post on December 21 that the member nation states of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence the price of Bitcoin and lead to its increasing use as currency.
They pointed out: "For countries looking to avoid a parabolic increase in dollar sanctions, Bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade."