As the market adjustment deepens, the performance of altcoins has become increasingly weak. The latest data shows that the Altcoin Season Index has fallen below the key level of 50%, setting a new monthly low. This trend has become more obvious after the correction of Bitcoin [BTC]. The altcoin sector as a whole has been caught in a sell-off, and the discount has triggered the enthusiasm of some investors to "buy the bottom".
However, many industry experts are cautious about this. Joao Wedson, an on-chain analyst and founder of Alphractal, warned that the current market trend is not favorable for altcoin investors. He said: "The best strategy is to continue to hold stablecoins, not BTC or any altcoins. The ideal exit time is when the price of Bitcoin breaks through $106,000, which is a signal for a full retreat!"
Where are altcoins going?
Wedson pointed out that Bitcoin's market dominance has steadily risen back above 54%, and this trend may strengthen further in the next few weeks or months. This is undoubtedly a double whammy for the altcoin market. He explained: "Since the altcoin rally in November, the Bitcoin dominance 90-day change indicator turned positive for the first time, indicating that more funds are flowing from altcoins to Bitcoin and stablecoins."
This change is directly reflected in the market price. Most top and mid-cap altcoins have seen their prices fall between 10% and 30% over the past week. Among them, Ripple [XRP] and Cardano [ADA] suffered particularly significant losses, down nearly 10% and 18% respectively. While XRP remains above $2, ADA has fallen below $1.
In contrast, Ethereum [ETH] has performed relatively well, falling only 6% and successfully holding the key support level of $35,000. This stable performance also makes it more resilient in the current bear market.
The “Exceptions” in Altcoins — Hyperliquid and Pudgy Penguins
Despite the overall gloomy market sentiment, some altcoins have stood out against the trend. For example, Hyperliquid [HYPE] and Pudgy Penguins [PENGU] have risen by 40% and 425% respectively. However, analysts warned that the rise of these assets is more driven by short-term speculation and market sentiment, and investors still need to be wary of risks.
The future of altcoins, short-term bear market or long-term opportunity?
Currently, the Altcoin Season Index has fallen to a low point, showing that the market's overall confidence in altcoins is insufficient. As the end of the year approaches, many investors are hoping that the "Christmas rally" will boost market sentiment. However, data shows that the probability of a strong rebound in altcoins in the short term is low, and the overall trend is still biased towards a bear market.
Nevertheless, analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook, predicting that the altcoin market could see a stronger recovery in 2025 as macroeconomic conditions improve and blockchain technology further develops.
The current altcoin market is going through a test, and many analysts recommend staying on the sidelines and not rushing to "buy the bottom." For investors, patience may be the best strategy - as Wedson said, "Instead of trying to predict the bottom, it is better to act decisively when the trend is clear."
If you are interested in the future of the altcoin market and want to keep up to date with the latest trends, you might as well follow Jiaoshou and prepare for the next bull market. After all, the waiting process is long, but choosing the right time is like finding the perfect Christmas gift, which is worth looking forward to and the rewards are rich!
