Market observation on November 19: Looking at this picture and summary of qinbafrank, the greed index has returned to 90. In the past few years, it has reached 90 or even higher three times: at the end of June 2019, at the end of October 2020-early February 2021, and at the beginning of March 2024. The first and third times soared to 90 and quickly turned downward, and the market also reversed quickly.
From the extreme pull of the Bitcoin market in the past two days, we can know that there is a fierce competition between long and short positions here. From the trend, it is beneficial to long positions, and from the data, it is beneficial to short positions. This kind of pull is that Bitcoin fluctuates up and down in the short term until one side is exhausted. The reason why it has not fallen below 90,000 here is more that the emotions after the election results have not completely receded, but it has obviously weakened in the past few days. This wave of market is also driven by emotions. The liquidity of funds on the market has not come in much.
The three waves of Bitcoin in this bull market are now in the second wave
The first stage is the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which brought the first wave of Bitcoin's rise in this round, bringing the price of Bitcoin to a high point near US$74,000.
The second stage is the current election market, which brought the second wave of Bitcoin's rise and brought the price of Bitcoin to $93,000. It is not yet confirmed whether this position is the high point of this wave, but overall there is not much room for upward movement. Because the sentiment is weakening, and here there is more liquidity provided by on-site funds, and it does not have the effect of attracting off-site funds to overflow to altcoins, so the altcoin bull market has just started.
I think the third stage is brought by Trump's inauguration and interest rate cuts, which may push Bitcoin to $140,000-150,000. Of course, this is based on the previous two waves, and the specific trend depends on the next trend. Because in the third wave, Trump's inauguration will bring a series of policies that are conducive to cryptocurrencies, and interest rate cuts may also accelerate. Only when the interest rate drops to a neutral interest rate of 3-3.5% can it really bring liquidity, and the market expects the end of quantitative tightening in the first quarter.
Only then can we really bring in off-site funds, and funds can overflow to altcoins, ushering in a big bull market for altcoins. Now is the time to lay out altcoins. If you said before that trading altcoins is not a pattern, then now you can have a proper pattern.
#比特币ETF期权上线 $BTC
