*This market is frankly a niche and unofficial market so it is natural that it is not managed and prices are manipulated.
*In the past, altcoin season happened when btc continuously broke the peak, people's attention increased (newspapers and radio stations continuously reported), a large number of new people entered and at this time btc was quite high, people wanted to find cheaper coins in the hope of finding a winning lottery ticket.
*Everyone knows the rule of cash flow is usd>btc>mid cap>low cap. So how to know if there is an altcoin season coming? In my opinion, there are 2 things that reflect and can be seen most clearly: PRICE + VOLUME.
1. In the early stages when btc increased sharply, altcoins hardly moved simply because at that time money was pouring into btc (very high trading volume), at this time anyone holding altcoins could easily lose their goods.
2. When btc has increased enough, the market gets more attention and the big players start to take profits, but will gradually exit. At this time, the price shows signs of going sideways, and the volume is usually at an average level and gradually decreasing.
3. For altcoins at the beginning of the accumulation phase, the price is typically flat or slightly decreasing with very low volume, no one pays attention to it. At the end of the accumulation phase, the volume starts to increase, often coinciding with the time when btc goes flat, this is when money flows from btc to altcoins. Of course, there will be coins with high volume continuously during the accumulation phase or only high for a short time at the end of the accumulation. (That shows how much or how little time it takes for that altcoin to accumulate)
4. Altcoin season only happens when btc moves sideways or increases slightly and with that, the big guys have collected enough goods to control the price line, the price now increases rapidly, surpassing long-term resistance in a short time with high volume (some coins even have a test pumping phase to test the supply, the price increases then adjusts with a gradual decrease in volume proving that the supply is exhausted).
***No one knows for sure when the big guys are pumping, but if you can identify which coin is flowing into, all you have to do is buy and wait for the price to be pushed up. Maybe the coin you buy is not pushed up simply because it is not collected by the big guys or has many people holding it or is in the test pumping phase with a large supply. Therefore, when trading, you need to have a strategy to prioritize risk management and capital preservation before thinking about profit optimization!! That's it.
