The cryptocurrency market often moves in cycles, where money flows between Bitcoin and altcoins. Understanding these cycles can help investors maximize their returns. Here’s a detailed explanation of the Altseason Cycle – each phase is broken down into specific metrics to help you navigate the market effectively.
Important Factors in the Altseason Cycle
Bitcoin's Dominance
This is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. When Bitcoin's dominance INCREASES, it means Bitcoin is taking a larger market share than altcoins.
Meaning: Bitcoin's high dominance shows investors moving capital into Bitcoin, often at the expense of altcoins.
Price of Bitcoin
Bitcoin price can go UP, DOWN or stay SIDEWAY.
Significance: Bitcoin price movements play an important role in regulating capital flows in the cryptocurrency market.
Altcoins Price
Measure the price trend of altcoins.
Meaning: Altcoins performance often fluctuates according to Bitcoin's dominance and price action.
Altseason Cycle Analysis By Stage
Phase 1: Bitcoin Leads the Market (April - May)
Bitcoin Dominance: UP
Bitcoin Price: UP
Altcoins Price: HORIZONTAL
Comment: As Bitcoin dominance and price both increase, capital is mainly flowing into Bitcoin, while altcoins maintain stable prices.
Trading Strategy: Focus on trading with Bitcoin and limit heavy investment in altcoins.
Phase 2: Bitcoin Rises, Altcoins Start Falling (May - June)
Bitcoin Dominance: UP
Bitcoin Price: FLAT to DOWN
Altcoins Price: DOWN, followed by HUGE DOWNLOW
Comment: When Bitcoin dominance remains high but price remains flat or declines slightly, altcoins tend to underperform, resulting in large declines.
Trading Strategy: Hold Bitcoin, as altcoins are high risk and poor returns during this period.
Phase 3: Altcoins Underperform as Bitcoin Stabilizes (June - July)
Bitcoin Dominance: HORIZONTAL
Bitcoin Price: UP
Altcoins Price: UP
Comment: As Bitcoin dominance flattens and prices rise, altcoins may see a slight recovery.
Trading Strategy: Start testing altcoin positions, but remain cautious as the overall market still favors Bitcoin.
Phase 4: Market Stabilizes, Altcoins Start Growing (August)
Bitcoin Dominance: HORIZONTAL
Bitcoin Price: HORIZONTAL
Altcoins Price: HORIZONTAL
Comment: When Bitcoin dominance and price are both sideways, this is a stable environment, allowing altcoins to accumulate without being volatile.
Trading Strategy: Neutral Phase. Potential altcoins can be considered for accumulation but need to manage risk closely.
Phase 5: Bitcoin Falls, Altcoins Affected (September)
Bitcoin Dominance: DOWN
Bitcoin Price: DOWN
Altcoins Price: DOWN
Comment: When both Bitcoin and altcoins fall, it usually signals instability in the overall market. Money can flow into stablecoins or out of the market.
Trading Strategy: Risk Reduction Phase. It is best to reduce positions or find safe havens outside the crypto market.
Phase 6: Altcoins Surge as Bitcoin Weakens (October)
Bitcoin Dominance: DOWN
Bitcoin Price: HORIZONTAL
Altcoins Price: STRONG INCREASE
Comment: Low Bitcoin dominance coupled with stable prices allows altcoins to explode – this is “altcoin season,” when money flows back into altcoins.
Trading Strategy: This is a golden time for altcoins trading! Focus on altcoins with strong growth potential.
Phase 7: Altcoins Grow As Bitcoin Stabilizes (October - November)
Bitcoin Dominance: DOWN
Bitcoin Price: UP or FLAT
Altcoins Price: UP or SIDEWAY
Comment: Bitcoin's stability combined with low dominance continues to fuel altcoins growth.
Trading Strategy: Continue to hold high performing altcoins, but closely monitor Bitcoin's performance for reversals.
Altseason Cycle Summary
Early Phase: Bitcoin dominance increases, Bitcoin price increases; altcoins stagnate.
Middle Phase: Bitcoin Stabilizes, Altcoins Weaken as Major Money Flows into Bitcoin.
Late stage: Bitcoin weakens, as dominance decreases, money flows to altcoins, leading to altcoin season.
When to Focus on Bitcoin and When to Switch to Altcoins?
Bitcoin Dominance UP + Bitcoin Price UP: Focus on Bitcoin, Altcoins Likely to Stagnate.
Bitcoin Dominance UP + Bitcoin Price FLAT or DOWN: Continue to favor Bitcoin; avoid altcoins as they may decline.
Bitcoin Dominance DOWN + Bitcoin Price FLAT: Altseason Opportunity! Altcoins Could Rally as Money Leaves Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Dominance DOWN + Bitcoin Price UP: Altcoins May Grow, But Be Careful As Bitcoin May Reversal.
Profit Optimization Tips
Cycle Tracking: Adjusts between Bitcoin and altcoins based on Bitcoin's dominance and price action.
Risk Management: During periods of high Bitcoin dominance, altcoins often underperform; use stop-loss or avoid investing in altcoins.
Market Sentiment Observation: Positive news can amplify gains during altseason, while panic can accelerate losses during Bitcoin dominance.
Monitor trading volume: Use volume indicators to confirm trends; high volume as Bitcoin dominance increases usually signals poor performance of altcoins.
The Altseason Cycle Chart is an important tool to help you determine when to focus on Bitcoin and when to move to altcoins.
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