The price of Bitcoin has hit an all-time high in the past week since Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election on November 5. According to market data, on election night, the price of Bitcoin exceeded the previous historical high of US$73,730. As of press time, the trading price of Bitcoin fluctuated between US$88,000 and US$89,000, and once hit a high of US$90,036.17 that day.
With the benefits of Trump's election, the expectation that sovereign countries may follow the United States in establishing strategic reserves of Bitcoin, and the easing of interest rates, how long can the post-election surge in Bitcoin last?
“Don’t fight the trend,” Bernstein analysts told clients in a note. “Welcome to the crypto bull market — buy everything you can.”
Bernstein and Standard Chartered expect Bitcoin price target to hit $200,000 by the end of next year, but first, how soon will it take for Bitcoin to break $100,000?
Polymarket users have placed bets on whether this will be achieved by the end of 2024, with total trading volume as of today exceeding $3 million, giving the bet a 59% chance.
Douro Labs CEO Michael Cahill told The Block: “Bitcoin hitting $100,000 is not a yes/no question, it’s a matter of when. In my opinion, it could be as early as the first quarter of 2025. Due to the current general economic environment Good for digital assets, we are seeing unprecedented momentum.”
To be afraid or not to be afraid?
According to Cahill, the post-election rally isn't purely FOMO, but he said current prices aren't just retail-driven speculation like they were in 2017.
He said: “The market has finally recognized Bitcoin as a legitimate asset and a hedge against inflationary pressures. Today, we are seeing a structural shift in investors’ views on Bitcoin, and the six-digit price base has This rally has the potential to solidify Bitcoin’s status as the cornerstone of the global financial system.”
Since breaking through $74,000, Bitcoin has been waiting for the next trigger point before reaching $100,000, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, who said Bitcoin could "easily" reach that level by the end of the year.
"Everyone is looking at new Bitcoin buyers," Hougan said. "That's very real, but another reason for this rally is that people have stopped selling. Long-term holders are no longer willing to sell Bitcoin at the current price. And the bears don’t seem to want to block this high-speed train.”
Tides.Network CEO Chandra Duggirala said Bitcoin could easily reach $100,000 before Thanksgiving, but there are risks in the short term.
“We are not seeing strong FOMO among wealth managers, and retail investors are just starting to pay attention,” Duggirala said in an email. “So the trend is still in its infancy. We believe once $100,000 is exceeded, , the real FOMO will come.”
Split Capital founder and chief investment officer Zaheer Ebtikar echoed the sentiment.
Ebtikar told The Block: “Historically, people have also been forced to accept this narrative or idea that Bitcoin’s moves do occur when it breaks out of its all-time highs, so I think it’s a bit of a self-fulfillment, but I think it’s more What’s important is that…a lot of smarter money and a lot of cryptocurrency natives are grabbing the capital that might come into the industry in the future.”
He noted that this would not happen immediately if people put their money in the hands of professional asset allocators. So much of the FOMO won't actually materialize until December 1 at the earliest, with January 1, 2025 looking more realistic.
"I think we're in a very strange window where a lot of sharp money that can move money quickly is coming into the market, and that's before more systemic buying comes into the market," Ebtikar said.
What do the smart money think?
Two Prime CEO Alexander Blume said there is "no doubt" that the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of this year.
“Bitcoin’s implied volatility is 55,” Blume said. “While that’s a bit high, I expect it to reach higher levels before reaching the market peak. This, along with the recent re-emergence of the lending market, tells me that The market still has some room to rise.”
Traders appear to be snapping up Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price, according to data from CF Benchmarks. The 30-day constant expiration 25 delta slope has now exceeded the 5 vol threshold (Note: 5 vol is an empirical value. When the skew value exceeds this threshold, it is generally considered that the market’s expectations for an increase are very strong). That's near year-to-date highs, suggesting a significant increase in demand for upside exposure, the company said.
In addition, Thomas Erdösi, head of product at CF Benchmarks, said in a statement that for call options with ultra-high forward strike prices, such as the 5D option with a current strike price of more than $100,000, the implied volatility is significantly higher. This suggests traders are preparing for a further break above the six-digit mark.
Open interest on Dec. 27 showed rising demand for call options with a strike price of $100,000, taking the notional amount to $850 billion, Wintermute data showed.
By the end of next year's first quarter, the March 28 contract showed increased demand for strike prices between $100,000 and $120,000. The Ethereum/Bitcoin spot rate is up 11% over the past week, its third-largest gain this year.
Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis said: “As has been pointed out throughout 2024, this spread is getting watered down at every opportunity. The general sentiment is that ‘this time it’s different,’ which is a dangerous stance for the market to take since Friday. It has softened somewhat since the highs.”
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said the $90,000 level is "easily achievable" before November 29, while $100,000 is expected on December 27 and $125,000 by the end of the year. He highlighted December 10 as an important date to watch as Microsoft’s board of directors will vote on whether to invest in Bitcoin.
Kendrick wrote in an email to clients on November 10: “…after the 2016 election, many of Trump’s trades peaked around the inauguration on January 20, so if Bitcoin cannot It hit 125,000 before and I think it will hit it before January 20th.”
Matt Klein, portfolio strategist at Nascent, said in an interview with The Block: "It will reach $100,000 by (Trump's) inauguration at the latest. The only question is whether the Lummis bill deserves serious consideration. If the Lummis bill becomes law, the increase will be There is no upper limit."
Earlier this year, Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo) introduced a bill that would require the U.S. Treasury Department to purchase 1 million Bitcoins over five years to combat the impact of a declining dollar. She also introduced a stablecoin bill in April.
With anti-crypto figures like Senator Sherrod Brown losing the election, the U.S. Congress is set to have its most pro-crypto lineup in history. Coupled with the fact that Trump’s economic policies may devalue the dollar, Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin will “fly higher.”
Hayes said: “As the free circulating supply of Bitcoin dwindles, the largest number of fiat currencies in history will chase a safe haven, and not just Americans, but investors around the world, including those in China, Japan and Western Europe, will Money is pouring into Bitcoin...that's why Bitcoin is going to $1 million because the price is priced in by the margin buy and hold."
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reproduced with permission from: (Shenchao TechFlow)
Original author: The Block
"The mad bull has just begun!" When will Bitcoin reach 100,000? Let’s see what 11 experts and smart money say." This article was first published in "Crypto City"
