In investments, those who suffer losses in contract trading and altcoin investments are often those who are both involved and stubborn in their opinions. As for the current market conditions:

It is almost certain that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high within the next six months and enter a major upward trend characterized by divergence and continuous new highs. Therefore, investors who simply hold Bitcoin spot have ample reason to maintain their confidence in holding.

However, what is uncertain is how long the consolidation will last as Bitcoin approaches new highs. It may rise sharply after a sudden drop, briefly correct after breaking new highs, then drop sharply again before continuing to rise, similar to the trend of MicroStrategy (MSTR). However, there is another possibility, which is a prolonged consolidation at high levels for a month, reducing volatility before forming a death cross on the monthly chart, much like Nvidia (NVDA) at the end of last year, and this scenario could result in even stronger momentum afterwards. This is precisely why contract trading is extremely challenging, especially when adjustments are nearing their end, as many investors cannot help but want to stick to their judgments.

Investing in altcoins is even more distressing. One must never enter too early; one must wait until Bitcoin effectively stabilizes more than 10% above the new high and genuinely feel that the altcoin market atmosphere is becoming active before considering long-term holdings. If the entry time is slightly too early, the gains will be minimal and the losses severe.

Reflecting on April of this year, when several million in positions had not allocated any Bitcoin at all, this approach was indeed too aggressive. But now that we are here, if the market starts moving in the future, especially in the early stages of a bull market, how can one recover losses without adopting a more aggressive strategy?

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