$BTC reviewed the trend of this year's market, especially the market trend from August to November. Except for 48900 and 52500, the low points in August and September were accurately predicted. The low points in October and November were 2000 points apart.
First, the lowest point in October was 58900. I see the first target as 60500 and the second as 56500. The gap is 2400 points.
Second, the lowest point in November was 66500. I see the first target as 67500 and the second target as 64700. The gap is 1800 points.
The prediction of the big trend is either accurate or a small range, and the use of the "Short Exploration Method" can easily make profits in the contract area. But in the spot area, two precious opportunities were indeed lost. The pull-up on October 10 and November 6. To be honest, I pursued the extreme too much and made a mistake. The big rise on November 6, the "Trump effect" has many uncertain factors, so it is not a pity to miss the spot. The only pity is the pull-up in October. From the daily EMA support, the double golden cross of kdj and macd above zero, and the increase in vol trading volume of the 4-hour kdj and macd golden cross, it is a pity that the bullish market did not enter the spot. It is also a certain factor with the recent profit of the contract.
In fact, from October 24, 26 and the lowest point of this market, they are all supported by the 4-hour EMA. In fact, on the 4th, it was known that the market was likely to pull back. On the morning of the 6th, the upward trend was already seen. The contract did make some money, but the spot was missed again, mainly considering the uncertainty of the election. I don’t feel much regret for missing the spot this time. But overall, I really missed two opportunities to enter the spot.
There is no such a perfect thing in life. Missing is not terrible, but the most terrible thing is to make mistakes. I am just a retail investor, just like everyone else, a person’s energy is limited. Not only do I have to teach my apprentices technical analysis and the "Short Exploration Method", I also have to do 1-2 contracts every day. There are often fans who are trapped in the square live broadcast. I am willing to help others and spend time and energy to help them get out of the trap. The energy is dispersed step by step.
In fact, every time the market rises in September, October and November, it is ahead of the historical activity trajectory. From the perspective of the rise, it can be seen that if the entire market activity fluctuates upward according to the cycle, it is likely to go to 80,000-85,000 in late November. But after the current big rise, it is likely to fluctuate and wait for a fall. The decline should not be very large, and it will rise in the later period.
