Bitcoin has been showing a strong uptrend in the last few weeks, breaking through local highs and attracting investors' attention. However, the price has now approached a critical resistance level around $69,000, and the market is waiting to see what direction the next move will take. Let's consider the likelihood of further increases or a possible pullback.
Current situation on the chart
The chart shows Bitcoin hovering near important resistance. The price is trapped within an ascending channel with a series of higher highs and lows, indicating bullish sentiment. However, the current rally has slowed down a bit, and the price is hovering around key levels. This could be a decisive moment for further developments.
Probability of continued growth: 55-60%
A strong trend, confirmed by a series of breakouts of structures (BOS), indicates the possibility of further price growth. If the price can overcome the resistance level at $69,000, this will open the way to new highs, with targets at $72,000 and $74,000. The probability of this scenario is about 55-60%. An additional signal in favor of growth may be increased trading volumes, as well as the accumulation of positions by buyers before the resistance level.
Probability of decline (correction): 40-45%
Despite the strong trend, resistance remains an important barrier, and if buyers fail to overcome this level, a rollback is possible. In this case, the price may correct to the nearest support levels in the region of $66,000–68,000. The probability of such an outcome is estimated at 40-45%. This scenario is possible if traders begin to fix profits, and buyers become more cautious against the background of the current growth.
Summary
The current position of Bitcoin is at a critical level: the market may continue to move up, breaking through an important resistance, or begin a correction. In the short term, the probability of further growth is slightly higher than the probable pullback, but it is necessary to take into account the reaction of market participants to attempts to break through the $69,000 level. Investor decisions and trading volumes in the coming days will be key factors in determining the further direction of the price.
