Bitcoin broke 60K but is showing signs of buying activity in the form of pin bars just above the 56K major support (see arrow). This retrace should come as no surprise if you read my previous article where I anticipated this scenario a week earlier. While current momentum is still bearish, this market is in a consolidation on this time frame which means the support/resistance levels are where the opportunities are more likely to develop. This means the 56K area is a key level where a high probability and high potential bullish reversal can appear over the coming week.
Now just because a reversal can be anticipated does NOT mean to jump in early which is a very common mistake. Confirmation IS the key to mitigating risk and aligning with the probabilities. If price does NOT confirm a reversal, it will then be "saying" that IT wants to continue the bearish momentum which can lead to a test of the 53 to 50K support. Again this is NOT about what you or I "think", its all about what the MARKET demonstrates through price action.
What does confirmation look like? On this time frame, a pin bar or inside bar followed by the break of the high of that bar. At this time, IF the current candle closes in the form of a pin bar and takes out the 59K high, we can argue a new buy signal is in effect. The thing is, a trade idea is NOT just a buy signal, it mustalso consider the accompanying RISK. Using this method, the candle low is one point of reference for risk which can be any where from 2 to 3K points (on this time frame). Once you figure out the risk, you can then calculate a profit objective or you can reference the next resistance level around 64 to 66K area.
