There are important macro events and data today, including the just-concluded US presidential election debate, US PCE data tonight, and one piece of information that traders must know, so please see the end of the article.
Biden and Trump had their first debate this morning. The market generally believed that it was a disaster for Biden, who was incoherent from time to time, while Trump seemed more powerful. So after the first round of debates, the market bet on the probability of Trump's victory soared, which shows the importance of debates. The US dollar then gave up some of its gains this morning. The market is a little worried that Trump will win, but this is a story for later. I will pay close attention to this event in the internal community.
There is also US PCE inflation tonight. PCE is an important data that the Federal Reserve also pays attention to. However, the interesting thing about PCE is that it is actually easier to predict because the PCE sub-items are basically derived from GDP. Currently, the market expects both PCE and core PCE to be 2.6%, and the actual value should not be much different from the expected value.
Finally, a very important piece of news for traders, this is the last trading day of this quarter. I have said before that at the end of the month or at the end of the month, the market will be rebalanced, and funds will readjust their positions, and market activities may become abnormal. Therefore, with the first debate, PCE and the end-of-quarter rebalancing, today's trend may be a bit chaotic. My advice is to wait and see, the market may not be so rational tonight. In short, today is a big day. If you are interested in the US election and its market impact, remember to follow me. The bonus 3 of the previous article is that I released two models on tradingview, and yesterday's surge in sol was also successfully eaten. Interested fans can check it out.
