If voters think like economists, Harris will win!
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The Oxford Economics Institute's Pain Index model shows that if voters focus on the rate of price changes and the relatively low unemployment rate, Harris will defeat Trump.
With just 12 days left in the U.S. presidential campaign, various predictive models are in the spotlight. A widely followed model from FiveThirtyEight currently shows that Republican candidate Trump has a 51% chance of defeating Democratic candidate Harris.
Independent consulting firm Oxford Economics presented two finance-centered models at a national economists' club webinar on Thursday.
The company's 'Price Shock Model' predicts that if voters focus on the cumulative increase in prices of goods and services during the Biden-Harris administration, Trump will win.
Bernard Yaros, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, stated, "If this mentality remains prevalent on Election Day, our so-called Price Shock Model will show Trump winning the electoral vote with 297 electoral votes."
Another model from the Oxford Economics Institute is called the Pain Index model, which posits that if voters focus on the rate of price changes and the relatively low unemployment rate, Harris will defeat Trump.
Yaros said, "This model assumes that voters think more like economists when considering inflation, observing the rate of change in consumer prices. So, if they view inflation from this perspective, they may be more lenient towards Harris, as we have seen significant price slowing over the past two years. If that’s the case, combined with the low unemployment rate we are still maintaining nationally and in various states, Harris will win the electoral vote with 281 electoral votes."
Yaros indicated that his team does not have a solid grasp on which model is more accurate, but if the average of the two models is taken, Harris slightly leads. Overall, both sides have very close winning probabilities.
The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives also seems intense, while critics believe the Republicans have the upper hand in the Senate race.
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