Lately, all social media content seems to follow the same narrative: "The Fed is cutting rates, so Bitcoin will pump!"
It's a catchy idea.
After all, lower interest rates are typically good for risky assets like stocks, crypto, and Bitcoin.
But we shouldn't get too excited. Instead, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture: Undoubtedly, rate cuts can indeed create positive momentum. However, they aren't the holy grail many make them out to be.
The Basic Equation: Lower Rates, Higher Bitcoin?
Of course, the logic behind the rate cut = Bitcoin pump narrative isn't entirely wrong.
When the Fed cuts interest rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, and spending is encouraged. Accordingly, In times of loose monetary policy, traditional investment vehicles like bonds and savings accounts offer lower returns, prompting investors to seek higher-risk, higher-reward assets like stocks and Bitcoin.
Rate cuts can also weaken the U.S. dollar and subsequently boost Bitcoin's price, as they are seen as a hedge against inflation and fiat depreciation.
So yes, on paper, Bitcoin can benefit from the rising wave of risk-on sentiment when the Fed cuts rates.
But—and it's a big but—the world doesn't operate in a vacuum. And this time, things are a bit more complicated.
The Complex Reality: Rate Cuts Aren't the Holy Grail
Here's the problem: While rate cuts can ease Bitcoin price increases, they aren't guaranteed to cause a massive surge. The world is more complex than the simple equation Fed rate cuts = Bitcoin pump.
For one, the U.S. isn't the only player in the game. Central banks worldwide, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), are also adjusting their monetary policies.
The result? The effects of Fed rate cuts on the U.S. dollar and global markets will be lower because everyone else is playing the same game.
In short, it's not just about what the Fed does—it's about what all central banks are doing.
This synchronization of global monetary policy limits the impact U.S. rate cuts can have on Bitcoin's price. Sure, a Fed rate cut might nudge Bitcoin upward. Still, without a more significant shift in global monetary policy, we won't see the kind of massive rally some hope for.
Bitcoin's Real Catalyst: Quantitative Easing (QE)
The truth is, Quantitative Easing (QE)—not just rate cuts—could really send Bitcoin into the stratosphere.
QE involves the central bank buying government bonds and other financial assets to inject liquidity directly into the economy. This increases the money supply, weakens the dollar, and drives investors into alternative assets like Bitcoin.
During the previous rounds of QE, we saw significant Bitcoin price rallies as liquidity flooded the market. But right now, QE is definitely not on the table. The inflation risk is still valid, and central banks are treading carefully.
Without QE, rate cuts alone may not provide the kind of liquidity boost that Bitcoin needs to reach astronomic levels.
Don't get me wrong: Rate cuts can create a positive backdrop. Yes, they can give Bitcoin an extra push and send it to a new ATH. But without a QE push (or other monetary instruments), Bitcoin's growth might be more gradual than explosive.
Cautious > Hype
The narrative that "rate cuts = Bitcoin pump" is tempting, but it oversimplifies the reality. Of course, rate cuts can help build positive momentum, making it easier for Bitcoin to rise. But they are not the holy grail; treating them as such can set unrealistic expectations.
It is still being determined if the Fed can manage a soft landing and avoid a recession. Therefore, we should exercise caution instead of excitement.
While rate cuts might support Bitcoin, don't expect an automatic moonshot. Without broader liquidity measures and a booming economy, we're more likely to see slow and steady growth than an all-out rally.
So, before you get swept up in the euphoria of the rate-cut narrative, take a moment to zoom out. The world of macroeconomics is complex, and Bitcoin's price depends on more than just the Fed's next move.  
The bottom line
- Rate cuts can help Bitcoin by creating a more favorable environment for risk assets. Still, they won't guarantee a massive price surge.
- Global central banks are also adjusting their policies, so the effects of U.S. rate cuts may be limited.
- Quantitative Easing (QE) would be the real game-changer for Bitcoin, but a return to QE is unlikely in the near term.

Do you remember last June and July? I am pretty sure you do.
You probably felt the fear.
First, the German government's $3 billion Bitcoin sell-off shook the market and caused turbulence.
Right after, the market was scared about the looming Mt. Gox repayment—$9 billion worth of Bitcoin was ready to flood the market.
Both have been significant discussion topics, driving massive waves of FUD across the space. The news was everywhere.
Fast forward to September.
We are about to witness the exact opposite. Well, actually, it can be even more significant. However, almost nobody talks about it.
Here's the thing: no one's talking about the $16 billion repayment from FTX.
Yep, you read that right. FTX is ready to return $16 billion to its creditors with $12 billion in cash.
Why This Could Be Big for Bitcoin and Crypto
So, what will happen when people get their money back? Many of them are likely to reinvest. This could inject a fresh wave of liquidity into the crypto market.
Let's do some math that will excite you: even if just 25% of those repayments are reinvested into the market, that's a more considerable cash influx than the German sell-off.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Obviously, only some people will throw their repayment back into crypto. But even a fraction of that $16 billion moving back into the market is enough to trigger bullish momentum.
Compare that to the constant panic about Mt. Gox or the German government—this isn't discussed nearly as much.
What Does This Mean for the Market?
If these repayments lead to buy pressure, we could see upward momentum as soon as the funds start rolling out. The FTX repayments aren't one-off events either.
They could create sustained liquidity over the next few weeks and months, pushing Bitcoin and altcoins higher.
With Fed announcements and the broader economic landscape, this could be just the positive surprise the market needs.

As soon as the news about the Iranian attacks spread, we could see a massive sell-off unfold.
Bitcoin’s price action broke through several crucial levels. First, it fell below the critical support at $63.5K. Then, it sliced through the short-term uptrend like butter. Finally, we found support at $60K, which held and led to a brief bounce.
Outlook Shifted Dramatically
With the geopolitical situation deteriorating quickly, the short-term view of BTC has changed. So far, the bullish structure built since early September is clearly broken.

From my perspective, at least a retest of the middle trendline, just below $60K, is more than likely. And we could dip lower.
It’s all about how the news plays out. Remember what happened with Russia a couple of years back? It was a similar scenario: a sharp drop, some relief, another drop, followed by a period of consolidation before the market came back stronge
Why I’m Careful With Longs
I know the temptation is there to “buy the dip” immediately. But I’m not rushing. Things look like they need more time to play out. The chance of further temporary downside is still high. The reality is that Israel is likely to respond, which could keep the tension high and pressure on the markets.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's open interest rate is still high. Accordingly, an increasing escalation can quickly lead to another (temporary) sell-off.

Long Term Bullish
To be very clear: Nothing, absolutely nothing, has changed in terms of the long-term scenario. Geopolitical tensions can indeed create massive price actions. However, typically, they are temporary and lead to a sharp price increase at a certain point.
My Plan of Action
No Active Trades Until We Find a Clear Bottom: Right now, I’m sitting on my hands when it comes to trading. The setup isn’t clear, and it’s all about protecting capital in times of uncertainty.
Slow DCA Strategy for Investing: From an investment point of view, I’m not going all in. I’ll wait a few days and slowly dollar-cost average (DCA) into some strong altcoins, gradually increasing my position as things develop.
Final Word: Be Careful, But Be Ready
Yes, it’s right to buy when there’s fear in the streets. But don’t get greedy and jump too early. Fear can get much worse before it gets better. Be prepared to act, but don’t rush it. Sometimes, patience is the best trade you can make.