According to Cointelegraph, traders expect ETH’s price volatility to be significantly higher than BTC’s, especially against the backdrop of upcoming macroeconomic events. Derive founder Nick Forster pointed out in an analysis report on October 2 that ETH’s future volatility is expected to increase significantly from October 25 to November 8, which is related to the US presidential election on November 5.

Forster stressed that the U.S. election could have a “significant impact” on ETH prices, as the DeFi ecosystem could face regulatory scrutiny over the president-elect’s stance on cryptocurrencies.

Derive data shows that traders predict that within three days after the US election on November 8, there is a 68% probability that the price of ETH will fluctuate between -14% and +16%, and a 95% probability that it will fluctuate between -26% and +35%.

At press time, ETH’s future volatility is 76.6%, while BTC’s is 69.8%. Forster said this suggests traders are expecting significant volatility during this period, with ETH being more sensitive to external events.

He further explained that traders appear to have more confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to withstand macro events, likely because of its established status as a digital store of value and the fewer direct regulatory issues it faces compared to Ethereum.

Forster believes that as the US election approaches, traders' expected volatility in ETH reflects the increased uncertainty.

At press time, ETH is trading at $2,364, down 5.93% since Oct. 2. Despite the much-anticipated launch of the Ether ETF in July, the historic debut did little to boost ETH prices.