Current situation

  • Price: $3,634.97 (at the time of analysis).

  • Major resistance levels:

    • $3,744.83 (Fibonacci 0).

    • $3,863.58 (Fibonacci 0.27).

    • $4,017.52 (Fibonacci 0.62).

  • Major support levels:

    • $3,524.92 (Fibonacci 0.5).

    • $3,434.75 (Fibonacci 0.62).

    • $3,336.72 (Fibonacci 0.79).

  • Volumes: A decrease in volumes is observed at current levels, which may indicate temporary consolidation.

Potential scenarios

Growth scenario (65% probability)

  • Factors:

    1. Rising wedge formation: Continuation of the current upward movement upon breaking $3,744.83.

    2. Accumulation volumes: Support above $3,524.92.

    3. RSI: Moderately neutral zone (48.49), allowing the asset to move upward without overbought conditions.

    4. Growth targets:

      • $3,744.83 (nearest resistance).

      • $3,863.58 (Fibonacci 0.27).

      • $4,017.52 (Fibonacci 0.62).

  • Implementation condition:

    • Consolidation above $3,744.83 with volume growth.

Decline scenario (35% probability)

  • Factors:

    1. Bearish RSI divergence: Observed on the chart — a pullback is possible.

    2. Decrease in volumes: Indicates a lack of buying pressure.

    3. Key reduction targets:

      • $3,524.92 (Fibonacci 0.5).

      • $3,434.75 (Fibonacci 0.62).

      • $3,336.72 (Fibonacci 0.79).

  • Implementation condition:

    • Breakdown below the level of $3,524.92 with consolidation and increased volumes.

Movement probabilities

  • Growth: 65%.

  • Decline: 35%.

Recommendations

For LONG positions:

  • Entry: Upon breaking the level of $3,744.83.

  • Targets: $3,863.58, $4,017.52.

  • Stop-loss: Below $3,524.92.

For SHORT positions:

  • Entry: Upon breaking the level of $3,524.92.

  • Targets: $3,434.75, $3,336.72.

  • Stop-loss: Above $3,744.83.

Important: Consider changes in the market situation and volumes. News releases may adjust current scenarios.

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