Current situation
Price: $3,634.97 (at the time of analysis).
Major resistance levels:
$3,744.83 (Fibonacci 0).
$3,863.58 (Fibonacci 0.27).
$4,017.52 (Fibonacci 0.62).
Major support levels:
$3,524.92 (Fibonacci 0.5).
$3,434.75 (Fibonacci 0.62).
$3,336.72 (Fibonacci 0.79).
Volumes: A decrease in volumes is observed at current levels, which may indicate temporary consolidation.
Potential scenarios
Growth scenario (65% probability)
Factors:
Rising wedge formation: Continuation of the current upward movement upon breaking $3,744.83.
Accumulation volumes: Support above $3,524.92.
RSI: Moderately neutral zone (48.49), allowing the asset to move upward without overbought conditions.
Growth targets:
$3,744.83 (nearest resistance).
$3,863.58 (Fibonacci 0.27).
$4,017.52 (Fibonacci 0.62).
Implementation condition:
Consolidation above $3,744.83 with volume growth.
Decline scenario (35% probability)
Factors:
Bearish RSI divergence: Observed on the chart — a pullback is possible.
Decrease in volumes: Indicates a lack of buying pressure.
Key reduction targets:
$3,524.92 (Fibonacci 0.5).
$3,434.75 (Fibonacci 0.62).
$3,336.72 (Fibonacci 0.79).
Implementation condition:
Breakdown below the level of $3,524.92 with consolidation and increased volumes.
Movement probabilities
Growth: 65%.
Decline: 35%.
Recommendations
For LONG positions:
Entry: Upon breaking the level of $3,744.83.
Targets: $3,863.58, $4,017.52.
Stop-loss: Below $3,524.92.
For SHORT positions:
Entry: Upon breaking the level of $3,524.92.
Targets: $3,434.75, $3,336.72.
Stop-loss: Above $3,744.83.
Important: Consider changes in the market situation and volumes. News releases may adjust current scenarios.