We have been saying since Christmas that liquidity would begin to recover around January 6th, and we emphasized over the weekend that the factors for rise and fall could only be seen on the weekend; after Monday, things might be completely different. As expected, with the recovery of liquidity, both the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin have seen good increases, which is also related to Trump’s new tariffs, as even the dollar index dropped a point.
In a bull market, do not exit; the value of the strategy of switching altcoins to exchange rates is still rising.
The following two possibilities are expected for Bitcoin's upcoming trend:
First, last night’s rebound has already broken the 0.618 retracement since the drop from 108,353, with the two red circles as starting points:
1. Follow a guiding wedge.
2. There is not a very obvious push from the second red circle, and it is currently in a new upward trend that needs to break through new highs to confirm.
Second, the drop from the peak to 92,233 is Wave A, from 92,233 to now is the Wave B rebound, and there will still be a Wave C; or it could be WXY, forming a large three-part adjustment.
However, due to the strong rebound, even if there is an adjustment next, the force will not be particularly strong, and it should not be lower than the previous low.
Looking at the big picture, I personally tend to prefer the first method, but currently, from the market rebound, there is indeed no particularly strong push.
$100,000 is the new starting point. Some people ask if it is still worth investing after reaching $100,000.
This question is the wrong question!!!
1. Some people exited before reaching $100,000. That may be because they achieved their goals or the position felt too large for them.
2. Some people continue to invest after reaching $100,000. That may be because they have a continuous source of funds to increase their positions, their goals are still very ambitious, and they feel their positions are still insufficient, etc.
For the first person, $100,000 is already expensive enough and good enough. For the second person, $100,000 is still very cheap, adequately cheap. Investment decisions must consider personal strength, investment goals, and current position status.
When BTC stands at the new starting point of $100,000, a fraction of BTC (0.1 BTC) stands at the new starting point of $10,000, a minuscule BTC (0.01 BTC) stands at $1,000, and so on. It's just about standing at a new starting point that suits oneself.
Market confidence is increasing, whether it’s mainstream coins or altcoins, they are quietly rising. Have you seized the opportunity?
The AI concept remains a target favored by hot money in the market, the Meme series is awaiting its explosive period, and in 2025, the Meme narrative will still be very appealing. Both AI and Meme are on an upward trend from the bottom. Even ordi sats have seen weekly level increases; when the market arrives, everyone makes money, but who can buy the coins first and see larger increases depends on technology to predict and position in advance.
I believe that the current market is steadily moving upwards across all sectors, but there has yet to be a rotation period.
80% of the position is placed in relatively stable sectors: the holdings of major coins remain ETH and SOL, which I can see are likely to outperform Bitcoin in the upcoming market. These coins include the spot position of Bitcoin, which will not change.
Another 20% of the position is for short-term strikes: 20% of the short-term strikes are used to cope with the uncertainty of when this bull market will start to rotate. However, currently, there are certain low market cap coins that can spike 30%-50% daily, with stop-loss set to prevent major declines, and expected take-profit at 50% short-term gains, with a high risk-reward ratio.
By following me to catch this bull market for 3-5 months, you can then rest for a few years.
