The macro background of the current bull market is driven by the global wave of interest rate cuts, which undoubtedly injects vitality into the economy. However, while interest rate cuts can stimulate the economy, global consumer power continues to decline, especially the decreasing trend in consumption in Asian countries is particularly evident. In contrast, the consumption level in the United States has not shown a rapid decline, primarily due to excess savings, the wealth effect from the U.S. stock market, and relatively stable non-farm data along with a low unemployment rate.
Additionally, many of the goods purchased by American consumers are necessities, which makes it appear that consumer power has not been significantly affected. But upon closer inspection, as shown in LVMH's financial report, the stock prices and personal assets of the luxury goods giant are shrinking, the luxury goods market is struggling to sell, and prices are plummeting, all of which reflect a weakening of consumer power.
Global asset performance is poor, and the wealth gap is widening. The poor are losing wealth, while the rich rely on solid supports like businesses or cash flow, exacerbating the wealth gap. Various subtle changes in consumption and life undoubtedly impact the secondary market and trading. However, from the perspective of the macro trend, interest rate cuts still have a positive effect on the secondary market.
After Trump took office on January 20, the first 100 days of his administration will be a peak period for policy announcements.
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